Transcript the presentation - Social Protection Platform

Designing scenarios and
RAP model
Loveleen De and Katharina Bollig, ILO
Manila
2 June 2015
Agenda
Where are we now?
• Steps of ABND
Designing scenarios
• Which recommendations to select?
• Fixing the parameters
RAP model
• Structure of RAP
• Advantages and limitations
Workshop mechanics
Where are we now?
Steps of ABND
Step 1 – Assessment matrix
Step 2 – Cost estimation
Step 3 – Launch of the SPF
Steps of ABND
1. What is the
existing
situation?
2. What are the policy
and implementation
level gaps?
4. How much will it
cost to implement
until 2020?
6. Finalizing the ABND report
3.
Recommendations
to close the gaps
5. Is it
affordable?
7. Launch of the SPF
Steps of ABND
1. What is the
existing
situation?
We
are
here
2. What are the policy
and implementation
level gaps?
4. How much will it
cost to implement
until 2020?
6. Finalizing the ABND report
3.
Recommendations
to close the gaps
5. Is it
affordable?
7. Launch of the national SPF
Designing scenarios
ABND matrix
SPF
guarantees
SPF-1
Health
SPOFS
provisions
Social insurance
Social welfare
Safety nets
LMIs
SPF-2
Children
Social insurance
Social welfare
Safety nets
LMIs
SPF-3
Working
age
Social insurance
SPF-4
Elderly
Social insurance
Social welfare
Safety nets
LMIs
Social welfare
Safety nets
LMIs
Existing
schemes
Policy
gaps
Recos
Imp
issues
Recos
From Step 1 to Step 2
There are 2 types of
recommendations
Recommendations to introduce
non-contributory benefits,
increase non-contributory
benefit amounts, extend
coverage
We can use the RAP model
LABOUR MARKET
MODEL
GENERAL
GOVERNMENT
OPERATIONS
MODEL
MACROECONOMIC
MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING
EXERCISE
SUMMARY AND
RESULTS
DEMOGRAPHIC
FRAMEWORK
Recommendations to introduce social
insurance, improve coordination between
schemes and operations, qualitative
recommendations to improve quality of
services
We need to conduct
further studies
Which recommendations to
select?
‘Children’ guarantee
√
√
1. Expand the CCT programme to cover more households
2. Merge the CCT and scholarship programmes
3. Calculate the cost of a universal child allowance
4. Improve management and efficiency of the school feeding
programme
Which recommendations to
select?
‘Working age’ guarantee
1. Explore the feasibility of introducing unemployment
insurance, linked with employment services
√
2. Introduce a public employment programme for workers in
the informal economy
Framing scenarios
‘Children’ guarantee
Recommendation
Sample scenarios
Recommendation 1: Expand
the CCT programme
Scenario 1: CCT to all poor households (not
only very poor households) at the current
benefit level
Scenario 2: CCT to all poor households (not
only very poor households) with increased
benefits
Recommendation 3:
Introduce a universal child
allowance programme
Scenario 1: Child allowance for all children at
a specific benefit level
Framing scenarios
‘Working age’ guarantee
Recommendation
Scenario
Recommendation 2: Public
Scenario 1: Establish a public works
employment programme for
programme providing 50 days of work at
workers in the informal economy the minimum wage per person per year
Fixing the parameters
‘Working age’ guarantee
Scenario 1: Establish a public works programme providing 50
days of work at the minimum wage per person per year
• Benefit: Minimum wage (US$ 10 per day) for up to 50 days
per year
• Estimated beneficiaries: unemployed and underemployed
informal economy workers + agricultural workers in the low
season
• Take-up rate: progressively grow from 0 to 100% over 5 years
• Administrative costs: 10%
Rapid Assessment Protocol
(RAP) model
Structure of RAP
1. Input data
Labour market
(EAP)
General government
operations (GGO)
Macroeconomic
data (ECO)
2. Estimated
cost of benefits
• PHP
• % of GDP
• % of govt expenses
Cost of benefits
Summary of
results
Demographic data
(POP)
3. Cost of SPF till 2020
RAP model
Example - SPF benefits as % of GDP in Thailand
1.2%
0.5%
Advantages and limitations of RAP
• Shows the cost of the ‘nationally-defined SPF’ in a country
• Provides a basis to initiate and facilitate national dialogue
• Results are simplistic and indicative, and further actuarial
studies are needed before designing a scheme
Workshop mechanics
Day 1: 2 June
• Quiz Who wants to be a protectionnaire? – earning budget
money in “Coresia”
• Group activity on the RAP model for “Coresia” – using the
RAP model to calculate the cost of the SPF within the national
budget
• Presenting the results of RAP to the Coresian government
• Presentation of the RAP model for the Philippines – based on
the initial draft prepared by ILO
Day 2: 3 June
• Core Group discussion to decide the scenarios and parameters
for the RAP model in the Philippines
Thank you