Transcript Market Review - Ulrich Consulting Group

Market Review
DJ Industrial Avg.
16516
16466
17425
S&P 500
1932
1940
2043
NASDAQ
4557
4614
5007
Russell 2000®
1033
1035
1136
MSCI EAFE
1558
1591
1716
MSCI Emerg. Mkt.
740
742
794
Domestic Stocks
Int’l
Stocks
NEWS
•
February was a respite after January’s steep market
declines with the S&P 500 posting a small loss of
-0.13%, putting its year-to-date loss at -5.09%.
•
The commodities-sensitive materials sector, which
includes mining companies, posted the biggest
gains in the S&P 500 in February. Materials stocks
rose 7.3% in February but are down 19% over the
past 12 months
•
Crude oil prices snapped a three-month losing
streak and gained 0.4% in February. The crude-oil
market is expected to remain oversupplied through
the rest of the year.
•
Month-End
2/29/16
Month-End
1/31/16
Year End
12/31/15
Fed Funds Rate
0.50
0.50
0.50
10-Yr Treasury
1.740
1.928
2.273
INTEREST RATES
DJ Corporate
3.259
3.350
3.426
3-Month LIBOR
0.63
0.61
0.61
30-Yr Fix Mortgage
3.66
3.73
4.08
Prime Rate
3.50
3.50
3.50
TOTAL RETURN
Gold prices rose to $1,234 an ounce, bringing its
February gain to 11%..
Russell 3000® (Broad US)
EQUITIES
Year End
12/31/15
S&P 500 (Large Cap US)
ACWI ex-US (Broad Int’l)
MSCI EAFE (Devlpd. Int’l)
MSCI Emerging Markets
BC Aggregate Bond
FIXED INCOME
Month-End
1/31/16
BC US Universal
B of A ML 3-Month T-Bills
BC Treasury
BC US Corp. High Yield
Citi World Govt. ex-US
CONTACT INFORMATION
505-224-9100
www.ulrichcg.com
OTHER
Month-End
2/29/16
INDEX LEVELS
February 29, 2016
NAREIT Cmp (RealEstate)
Bloomberg Commodity
Trust
Month
to Date
Year to
Date
1-Year
-0.03%
-5.67%
-7.84%
-0.13%
-5.09%
-6.19%
-1.11%
-7.83%
-17.00%
-1.80%
-8.89%
-14.80%
-0.15%
-6.62%
-23.13%
0.71%
2.10%
1.50%
0.71%
1.82%
0.94%
0.03%
0.04%
0.11%
0.89%
3.04%
2.88%
0.57%
-1.04%
-8.30%
3.95%
4.99%
1.70%
-0.25%
-3.86%
-4.59%
-1.63%
-3.28%
-26.50%
S&P SECTOR YEAR-TO-DATE
20
10
9.64
6.97
0.78
-4.75
-4.84
-6.00
-8.05
1116
1060
Crude Oil
33.75
33.62
37.04
Gasoline
1.749
1.783
2.000
Natural Gas
1.711
2.298
2.337
•
•
The Commerce department said gross domestic
product advanced at a 1% seasonally adjusted
annual rate in the fourth quarter, revising up its
earlier estimate of 0.7%.
•
Core inflation has risen faster than the Federal
Reserve predicted in December, when it decided
to raise the benchmark federal-funds rate for the
first time in nearly a decade.
•
Developments in the U.S. contrast sharply with
economic data and monetary policy in other
advanced economies. Policy makers in Europe
and Japan have been pushing interest rates down
to negative levels and buying assets in a bid to
fuel growth and combat weak inflation.
EQUITY STYLE RETURN
MTD
Val
Core
Grw
YTD
Val
Core
Grw
Large
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
Large
-5.19
-5.41
-5.62
Mid
0.70
1.13
1.57
Mid
-4.86
-5.50
-6.12
Small
0.68
0.00
-0.71
Small
-6.08
-8.80
-11.47
Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth was higher than
originally reported, and monthly data showed a
promising start to 2016 as wage growth
accelerated and information inched closer to the
Fed’s 2% target.
Utilities
Healthcare
1234
Info Tech
Gold
ECONOMY
Materials
Year End
12/31/15
Industrials
Month-End
1/31/16
Cons Stpls
Month-End
2/29/16
COMMODITY PRICES
Telecom
-20
CHART OF THE MONTH
Inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP
Annualized quarterly change
Source: Commerce Department
-11.53
Financials
-3.77
Energy
-1.98
-10
Cons Disc
0
Market Review
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of
financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is
reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the
purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied
on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be
relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
The price of equity securities may rise, or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s
financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and
increased volatility. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities,
particularly if the instruments involve leverage.
Equity Style Returns are based on the Russell Indices. Large cap are represented by the Russell 1000® Value Index,
Russell 1000® Index (Core), and Russell 1000® Growth Index; mid cap are represented by the Russell Midcap® Value
Index, Russell Midcap® Index (Core), and Russell Midcap® Growth Index; small cap are represented by the Russell
2000® Value Index, Russell 2000® Index (Core), and Russell 2000® Growth Index. Russell Investment Group is the
source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a
trademark of the Russell Investment Group.
© Ulrich Consulting Group, LLC