Diapositiva 1

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Transcript Diapositiva 1

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Peru’s success story is based on the continuity of sound economic
policies
• Peru`s GDP (equivalent to USD$ 218 billion in 2015 has increased at an
average rate of over 6 percent each year and is now three times our 1995
GDP;
• Public debt is decreasing (19.3% of GDP);
• International net reserves represent 32% of our GDP;
• Unemployment is around 6%;
• Inflation (3.2% in 2015) & country risk are also amongst the lowest in the
region.
LA5: Economic Growth 2002-2014
Latin America: Sovereigns Rating1
(Long Term Debt in Foreign Currency)
Country
(2002=100)
200
Moody's
S&P
Fitch
Aa3
A3
A3
Baa2
Baa2
Baa2
Baa2
Ba1
Ba3
B3
Caa3
AABBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BBBBBBBB
BB
B+
CCC
A+
BBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BBB
BBBBB
BBB
CCC
180
Chile
Peru
Mexico
Colombia
Panama
Brazil
Uruguay
Paraguay
Bolivia
Ecuador
Venezuela
160
140
120
100
Peru
80
2002
Chile
2004
2006
Colombia
2008
Source: IMF WEO April 2015, MEF
Brazil
2010
Mexico
2012
2014
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A leading economy with three basic guidelines:
Education
Infrastructure
Diversification
“Include
in order
to grow”
Sound
macroeconomic
policies
Protection of
the
Environment
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Peru´s potential & advantages allow our country to be optimistic…
a) … 32 million people a “melting pot” full of creativity and
entrepreneurship.
b) … 15% of his mining potential exploited.
c) … 25 million out of a total of 106 million of hectares of available forests.
d) … 3.3 GW of its 70 GW hydroelectric power.
e) … mega-biodiversity almost completely exploited.
f) … developing other value added industries & services opportunities
g) … strategic location of our territory as a “hub” in South America.
h) … strong macroeconomic fundamentals are strong
i) … a huge gap in infrastructure of around USD$ 121 billion which offers
incomparable and attractive opportunities for foreign investment.
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Peru: main challenges on the economic side…
Promote
access to
financing
Improve
productivity &
competitiviness
Industrialization/
Diversification
Eliminate
restrictive
labor
regulations
Reduce infrastruture
gap
Alleviate
inefficient
government
bureaucracy
Improve
education
quality
Develop science
technology &
innovation
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Economic growth + a socially inclusive approach have underpinned increases in
adequate employment, lower poverty levels and expanded middle class…
 Extreme poverty reduction has fallen to 4.3% almost
one sixth of what it was in 1991;
 Chronic infant malnutrition has descended to 10.7%;
 Alphabetization of young population is almost 100%;
 Equal primary education attendance levels between
boys and girls has been reached;
 Reduction of infant mortality is 17%; and,
 Income inequality has also been tackled as Peru´s
Gini index (0.44) is below MEX/COL/CHI/BRA levels.
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Peru´s modern and efficient social inclusión programs…
… pre-natal medical care.
…
employment
programs and labor
reconversion.
…
improve
early
childhood development
children 1-3 years old.
… food program for
most vulnerable sector
of young students in
rural areas.
… non-contributive
pension fund
for
elderly
population
above 65 years old
confronting poverty
or extreme poverty.
…
cash
subsidies
specifically oriented to
most
vulnerable
sectors in exchange of
the fulfillment of
certain obligations.
… finance university
or
technical
education to less
favorable
young
students.
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Peruvian integration in the international scenario…
MOST
FAVORABLE
TREATMENT
FAIR & EQUAL
CONDITIONS
FREE TRADE
AGREEMENTS
FREE TRANSFER OF
PROFITS
BILATERAL
INVESTMENT
AGREEMENTS
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Peru´s aspiration to be part of the OECD by 2021 is a strategic
national objetive to escape the middle income trap…
Transport
infrastructure &
logistics
Education & skills
Governance & trust
in institutions
Labor market
reform
Innovation
Main bottlenecks
identified by OECD
coincide with the
political, economic &
social challenges 11
Peru: Global Integration via a wide net of Regional Trade
Agreements (Free Trade Agreements)
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Peru & the European Union: FTA put Peru on the radar but still
with a lot of potential to be exploited…
 The Trade Agreement with the European
Union (2013) became a “turning point”
of our bilateral relations with the EU and
its Member States.
 Economic and trade assets but mostly a
positive political impact.
Clear signs of our common will to continue moving forward
towards a “Strategic Partnership”:
 Increased political cooperation (Security issues & peace
keeping operations led by EU);
 Triangular cooperation & technical assistance in favor
of institutional reforms;
 Fight against drugs and international organized crime;
ST&I, climate change, education and migration; and,
 EU Member States´ support to Visa Exemption
(Schengen) to Peruvians & support to Peruvian
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aspiration to the OECD in 2021.
European countries are a key partner for pour non traditional
exports…
Trade balance Peru-European Union (UE-28), 20102014 & January-March 2015 (In US$ Millons)
Evolution of non traditional Peruvian exports to the
EU 2007-2014 (In US$ Millons)
2007 (In millons OF
USD/%)
2014 (In millons OF
USD/%)
TRADITIONAL
5,696 (81%)
4,034 (63%)
NON TRADIC.
1,304 (19%)
2,348 (37%)
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Peru & the Pacific Alliance: A strategic perspective
• Additionally, by 2012, they were
able to obtain US$70 billion in
Direct Foreign Investment (DFI).
• All members have eliminated visas
between them
• PA represent 34% of Latin America's
GDP and 2.7% of the global GDP.
• It is the ninth largest economy in
the world.
• Trade represents 35.8% of Latin
America and the Caribbean.
• They
established
the
Latin
American Stock Market known as
MILA the largest market in Latin
America and the second largest.
• They have agreed to liberalize at
least 90% common custom duty
tariffs upon the Agreement coming
into force.
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Latin American integration & worlwide
 Peru actively participates in different integration processes at the political level
within the framework of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean
States (CELAC) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR).
 The Andean Community is our natural sub regional group (focus of attention
has turned to sectorial policies regarding health, education, labor, and
infrastructure and border development)
 Peru´s relations with the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) provide
a space for dialogue and exchange of good practices.
 Pacific Rim (APEC, ASEAN).
 Arab Nations (ASPA).
 African South America Forum Summit (ASA).
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What Peru has to offer?
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A reliable political partner in the region to promote business in
democracy, and respect for the law and other shared values and
respect for the environment.
What does Peru need?
•
More investment. More trade: (diversified exports).
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