Transcript Slide 1

From Research to Policy
Making: CO2, Inequality and
private transport
Jose Luis Samaniego
Sustainable and Human Settlements
Division
Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean,
CEPAL
Paris – November, 3, 2015
Uruguay: can´t go beyond….because of cities and
transport. 94% of electricity is already renewable
Health carrying capacity is surpassed in many
cities already, and worsening
Latin America (selected cities): concentrations of PM2.5
and air quality standards, 2011
(Micrograms per cubic meter)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Average annual concentration of PM2.5
WHO (μg/m3)
Source: ECLAC, (2014), The Economics of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean 2014.
EU (μg/m3)
Lima
Río de Janeiro
Monterrey
Ciudad de Guatemala
Tegucigalpa
San Salvador
Bogotá
Medellín
Santiago
Ciudad de México
Caracas
La Paz
Sao Paulo
Quito
Asunción
Montevideo
Buenos Aires
San José
0
The future promises difficulties and small
margins for improvement in BAU
Relationship between the rate of motor vehicle use and per capita GDP
in developed countries and Latin American countries, 2003-2010a
(Motor vehicles per 1,000 persons and PPP dollars at constant 2005 prices)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators.
a The upper limit corresponds to countries such as Australia, Italy, Spain and the United States. The lower limit corresponds to Denmark, the
Netherlands and Norway. The black arrows indicate possible trends depending on what growth style the region adopts; they are not projections.
Focalized origin of externalities, local (emissions
and congestion) and global (CO2e)
Latin America (9 countries): household spending on fuel for transport (gasoline,
diesel, biodiesel), as a proportion of total household spending and as a
proportion of total spending on fuel for transport, by income quintile
(Percentages)
10
90
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
40
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V
Argentina
(2005)
Brasil (2008)
Chile (2007)
Colombia
(2007)
Costa Rica
(2004)
El Salvador
(2006)
México (2012)
Nicaragua
(2005)
Uruguay (2005)
Participación
delofgasto
en energía
transporte
en el gasto
total (eje izquierdo)
Participation
transport
fuelspara
in total
household
expenditures.
Left axis.
Participación de cada quintil en el gasto total en energía para transporte (eje derecho)
Participation of quintile in total consumption of transport fuels. Right axis.
Source: ECLAC, (2014), Compacts for Equality Towards a Sustainable Future
Taxing all to subsidize the few
Car ownership, by income quintiles
58
57
33
24
22
III IV V
Argentina (2001)
3
4
I
II
7 10
23
21
17
II
44
33
32
I
45
40
40
8
6
2
3
4
I
II
III IV V
III IV V
Bolivia (2007)
Colombia (2007)
I
6
10
15
14
4
1
II
III IV V
Ecuador (2009)
I
II
14
7
8
III IV V
I
El Salvador (2008)
7
II
III IV V
Mexico (2008)
I
11
II
15
III IV V
Venezuela (2006)
Source: Own elaboration base on data from the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEDLAS and The World Bank)
Fossil fuel consumption subsidy (to full cost of supply) as % of GDP
12
% GDP 2012
% GDP 2013
10.2
10
8
6
4
6.8
6.5
7.4
6.1
4.9
2.5 2.7
2.6
2
2
0.1
1.3
1
0
0
Argentina
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Source: Own elaboration based on data from http://www.iea.org/subsidy/index.html
El Salvador
Mexico
Venezuela
Our urban “annex 1”: consumption
inequality is worse than income distribution.
Gini index: total spending on
fuel for transport
0.67
0.63
0.58
0.57
0.54
0.53
0.53
0.52
0.42
Uruguay (2005)
Mexico (2012)
Costa Rica (2004)
Chile (2007)
Argentina (2005)
Nicaragua (2005)
Brazil (2008)
El Salvador (2006)
Colombia (2007)
Lorenz curve: total spending
on fuel for transport
Source: ECLAC, 2015 based on data from national income and expenditure surveys
A window of opportunity for a progressive and
inclusive policy
1.
Car ownership and gasoline consumption are still very unequal;
policy can be progressive.
2.
Policy affects consumption (of high deciles), not production (the
usual “developing country” disguise).
3.
Difficult politically. Decile 10 makes externalities, policy, laws,
public opinion and the short term agenda. Deciles 1 to 8 may help
win elections.
4.
Difficult technically. The bridge between private transportation
discouragemente (pricing externalities, with limits) and public
transportation radical improvement (investment policy, also with
prices on externalities) has to be constructed, and is an economic
motor, is climate friendly, is inclusive and enhances social cohesion.
[email protected]
Jose Luis Samaniego
Sustainable and Human Settlements
Division
Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean
Paris – November 3, 2015