Transcript Total Economy - industriAll

Economic Overview
November 2015
Outline
(1) Total Economy
(2) Industry
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Production
Productivity
Employment, working hours
Inflation, output prices
Wages, unit labour cost
Trade balance
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Total Economy
 Slight improvement
in economic growth
in the EU in the last
two years after a
“double-dip”
recession.
 According to
(optimistic) EU
forecasts this trend
will continue in
2015 and 2016.
 Source: AMECO
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 Increased GDP
volume is expected
in almost all
European countries
in 2015.
 However, less than
1% growth in five
countries.
 Only 0.5% in Greece
which has lost
25.6% since the
crisis.
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 The economic
growth is forecast
to further pick up
in 2016.
 At least 1% GDP
increase in every
country if the
predictions
materialise.
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 The annual
production value
was just above the
pre-crisis level in
the EU in 2014.
 Spain had lost
5.0%, Italy 8.9%
and Greece 25.8%.
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 Big differences
with respect to
GDP per capita in
Europe.
 Four countries
below 8 000 euros
per year. The EU
average was
27 400 euros in
2014.
 No data for Turkey.
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 A bit more
equality when
differences in
purchasing power
are eliminated.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Industry (NACE BE) accounted for
18.9% of total
value added in
2014.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
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 The total
employment in
EU-28 was
reduced by
7 million from
2008 to 2013.
 It will take another
2-3 years before
we again see the
level of 2008.
Source: AMECO
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 The percentage
growth for EU-28
will be 1.0% in
2015 according to
the latest forecast
from the
Commission (May
2015).
 The highest
growth in total
employment is
expected in Spain
(2.9%).
Source: AMECO
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 The forecast for
2016 is the same
for EU-28 (1.0%).
 Again we find the
highest growth
figures for
southern
European
countries (Turkey
and Greece).
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 Employment still
below pre-crisis
levels in the EU-28
and EA-19.
 Turkey most
positive with
25.1% increase
since 2007.
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 Industry (NACE BE) accounted for
15.6% of
employment in
the EU-28 last
year.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
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 Big differences
between the
countries.
 The working hours
are longest in
Poland.
 No data for Turkey,
Norway, Switzerland
and some others.
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 The average
number of yearly
working hours
lower than in
2007 in most
countries.
 No data for Turkey,
Norway, Switzerland
and some others.
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 More than 10%
unemployment in
EU-28 last year.
 Big differences
between the
countries.
 Spain and Greece
both over 24%.
 No data for
Switzerland.
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 Unprecedentedly
high levels of
unemployed people
under 25 years.
 Spain and Greece
over 50%. Only two
countries below
10%.
 No data for
Switzerland.
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 A 4.5% growth in
productivity in the
EU since 2007.
 Nine countries
above 10%.
Highest increases
in new EU
member states,
Ireland and Spain.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Nominal wage
increases have
exceeded real
labour
productivity
growth in all
countries except
Greece, Ireland
and Cyprus since
2007.
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 Real unit labour
cost has fallen in
twelve countries
since 2007,
meaning that the
wage share of
GDP has gone
down and the
capital share has
grown.
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 Germany had a
surplus in its
foreign trade of
215 billion euros
last year.
 France and UK had
deficits of 162
million between
them.
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 The Netherlands
exported goods
and services
worth 180 billion
euros more than it
imported from
other EU member
states last year.
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 Germany has the
highest trade
surplus with
countries outside
the EU.
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Industry
 EU average 18.9%
when mining,
petroleum
production and
energy supply are
included.
 Norway on top
because of big oil
and gas sector.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Manufacturing
sector has
greatest relative
significance in the
Czech Republic,
Hungary, Slovenia
and Germany.
 EU average is
15.3%.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Industrial
production in the
EU-28 seems to be
levelling out.
 Source: Eurostat, Short-term
business statistics.
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 Most positive
developments in
new EU member
states
 Stagnation in
Germany. Down in
EU-28 and EA-19: 89%.Four countries
have lost more than
20%.
 No data for
Switzerland.
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 Biggest reduction
in the mining
sector and
clothes’
production sector
since 2007.
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 Industrial
employment in
the EU was 3.9
million lower in
2014 than in 2008.
 The level is almost
as high as in 2010.
 Slight increase in
2014.
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 Germany has
8 million jobs in
industry.
 8 countries above
one million, also
Romania and the
Czech Republic.
Poland is now
number 3.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Almost all
countries in the
red. Industrial
employment
heavily under
pressure.
Germany only
positive exception.
Reduction in Spain
close to 30%.
Average drop in
EU and EA higher
than 10%.

No data for Turkey, Switzerland,
Norway and some others.
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 All sectors are in
the red but MET
industries, energy
supply and
pharmaceuticals
have done better
than the rest.
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 Increase in seven
countries, but not
very dramatic.
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland, Norway
and some others.
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 In EU real labour
productivity per
hour in the
industry has gone
slightly up since
the onset of the
crisis. Increase in
Romania: 67.3%.
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland, Norway
and some others.
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 Big variations with
respect to wages
per employed
person (total gross
wages divided by
number of
employees).
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland and
some others.
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 The lowest
average gross
wages in industry
are just over 3
euros per hour.
 No data for Norway,
Turkey, Switzerland
and some others.
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 Wage increases
highest in the East
and South East
since the crisis.
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 Low inflation rates
in most countries
since the onset of
the crisis.
 Highest growth in
Turkey and Iceland.
 EU average only
15.4% in eight
years. Even lower in
the euro zone.
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 Exceptionally low
inflation in 2014.
 Only 0.4% in EA19.
 Turkey (not in
chart) had 8.9%.
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 Growth in most
countries, but in
Cyprus, the UK
and Luxembourg
real wages per
hour in industry
have actually
fallen since the
crisis began.
 No data for Norway,
Turkey, Switzerland
and some others.
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 Gross wages and
salaries have
increased faster
than production in
almost all
European
countries since
2007.
 The average
increase in EU-28
was 18.9%.
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 The picture is
diverse.
 Germany, Italy,
France and Spain
are among the
countries with
increased RULC in
the industry since
2007.
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 Industrial
companies have
increased their
producer prices in
most countries
since 2007 (by
more than 20% in
nine countries).
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