Transcript Estimating the Impact of the Green Economy on Jobs in South Africa

eThekwini on the Edge?
A short discussion document prepared
by the City Planning Commission
Purpose
• To stimulate discussion and debate about the
situation facing Durban city-region.
• A selective assessment to inform a fuller diagnostic
which will form the basis for a long-term plan.
• The audience: all role players with an interest in
the region - not simply eThekwini Municipality.
• Key question: does this adequately capture the
key challenges and opportunities facing the cityregion?
Risks and uncertainties
• Severe hardship and conspicuous inequality.
• Social discontent and unrest.
• Economic squeeze causing unemployment, strained
household and municipal finances.
• Difficulties in rationing the provision of housing and
free basic services.
• Sluggish private investment and job creation.
• Continuing urban segregation and fragmentation.
• People are forced to travel further than ever, on an
unreliable and obsolete transport system.
• Many ordinary citizens anxious about the future
Business-as-usual cannot continue
• Risks of entering a cycle of decline where
pressures and problems reinforce each other.
• Recent outbreaks of xenophobia illustrate the
consequences of intensified stress.
• Experience everywhere shows that communities
whose hopes and livelihoods are threatened
become more introspective and nationalistic.
• Durban’s collective failure to build a more inclusive
and tolerant community has serious repercussions
for the city’s image, stability and prosperity.
5
Risk of a vicious cycle
Economic
stagnation,
fewer jobs
Loss of
talent,
Lack of
investment
Growing
discontent,
unrest &
protests
Strained
household &
municipal
finances
Social
problems;
harder to
ration new
housing &
services
We need to find common purpose
• In conditions of economic distress and social
instability, individuals and organisations don’t make
long-term plans or invest in the city.
• A collective effort is required to envision a more
promising future and to galvanise the whole
community to get behind it.
• Durban has core strengths and a proven record of
successful delivery.
• The National Treasury wants cities to step up a
gear and become ‘engines of prosperity’.
National support
• Minister Nene said: “realising the economic
dividends of urban growth requires a new approach
to providing infrastructure, housing and public
transport services, while overcoming the spatial
divisions of apartheid” (2015 Budget speech).
• Government wants the metros to unlock the
potential of cities by investing in infrastructure and
stronger partnerships with the private sector.
• A long-term growth and development strategy can
help.
Key indicators
Population
growth rate
2001-2011
Employmen
t rate 2011
Growth in
employmen
t 2001-2011
eThekwini
Cape Town
Jo’burg
Tshwane
Ekurhuleni
11%
29%
37%
36%
28%
41%
50%
53%
51%
49%
27%
38%
56%
52%
48%
Average
R113,000
R162,000
R183,000
R183,000
household
income
2011
Source: Statistics SA: 2001 and 2011 census of population
R126,000
Recent history
• In 1996, Jeff McCarthy and Ann Bernstein said
Durban was “the country's most promising global
competitor” because of its location, political
pragmatism and quality of business leaders.
• To realise its potential, Durban had to get rid of its
parochialism, build on its ethnic diversity and start
thinking globally.
• The municipality had to take the economy more
seriously and do more to attract private investment
through good services and creative leadership
But
• The city was held back by the continuing political
turmoil and violent conflict across KZN.
• This deterred and repelled business, professional
and political talent from the region.
• Two other drags on Durban’s progress have been:
• the limited presence of government departments
and corporate head offices
• the high incidence of HIV-Aids (affecting health, life
expectancy and productivity)
eThekwini Metro
• The creation of the metro was a bold step.
• Durban Corporation had financial reserves that
could be put to socially-useful purposes.
• But the metro inherited bigger demands on its rates
base than any other metro because of the large
service backlogs in its extensive rural hinterland.
• The strategic opportunities available to the new
metro were set against the risk that its core focus
and tax base would get undermined by the
pressures of rural and township redress.
Extensive service delivery
• eThekwini has an impressive record of rolling out
water, sanitation, waste collection and electricity to
under-served communities.
• Admirable commitment to innovation – e.g. shared
ablution blocks, low pressure water systems and urine
diversion toilets (2014 Stockholm Industry Water
Award)
• Between 2001 and 2011,
• 154,000 more households got a tap inside their dwelling (up 37%)
• 101,000 more households got access to a flush toilet (up 20%).
• 65,500 fewer households were without electricity (down 40%).
• But can this growth be sustained?
Record housing provision
• During the 2000s, eThekwini built 10-16,000 houses a year
• One of the largest programmes of free housing for the poor
•
•
•
•
•
•
that any city in the world has ever delivered!
Received the Govan Mbeki Award for outstanding delivery.
But 150,000 households (one in six) still live in shacks,
almost the same number as in 2001
Informal settlements and hostels present big challenges,
though the metro has positive experience of upgrading
Providing free housing costs R250-300,000 per unit
Serious rationing problems
Housing policy needs a radical rethink
Economic and social stress
• The municipal wage bill has grown steadily:
• Durban Corp. employed 13,800 permanent staff in 1997
• eThekwini Municipality had 19,500 (2005) & 24,900 (2014)
• Only 41% of adults has a job (51% in the other metros).
• Hence few earners in each household.
• Average incomes are 30% lower than in other metros.
• Loss of skills and talent to Gauteng
• Durban’s assets: port and airport; logistics; facilities for
events and tourism; go-ahead firms; automotive sector
• What are Durban’s competitive strengths & weaknesses?
• Ethekwini needs much stronger partnerships
Urban fragmentation
• Dispersed urban form creates inefficiencies and
exclusion.
• New development over last 15 years has extended
low density sprawl and made inefficient use of land.
• Building on the periphery is costly in terms of bulk
infrastructure - who should pay?
• Durban’s modest rate of household growth means
that the case for launching new cities or up-market
housing schemes is weak
• Neglected central city needs focused attention
Environmental challenges
• Urban sprawl and pollution have damaged sensitive
watercourses and reduced biodiversity
• Looming crisis of wastewater treatment
• High level of water losses
• Surplus from electricity sales will become less
important
• Durban Metro Open Space System is highly regarded
• Also Working for Ecosystems, Working on Fire, and
Community Reforestation
• Global ‘100 Resilient Cities Programme’ good platform
for peer review
City governance
• Need a shared vision for the city-region across many
different role-players
• Metro needs to rebuild trust in citizens and work in
partnership with others
• Many internal and external tensions need to be
addressed
• Strong tendency to work in silos
• Limited tradition of evidence-based policy
• Lack of a coherent strategy for long-term development
of the city-region
Particular gaps in knowledge
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Understanding Durban’s economy and the
bottlenecks to investment and growth
Deeper knowledge of the quality of life and
subjective well-being
A better understanding of the urbanisation process
A greater appreciation of how to improve the
developmental impact of household services
Understanding how to make efficient use of land
Improved knowledge of the shifting spatial economy
Appreciation of how to improve city governance and
leadership
Emerging questions: 1
Is this document correct in suggesting that the cityregion is not realising its potential and is on a precarious
trajectory? Are there any glaring omissions in the
analysis? Do you agree that bold ideas and
experimentation are required from many role-players to
tackle the socio-economic, spatial and environmental
problems? What do you think needs to be done to
manage a transition from business-as-usual? What are
the main things that would help Durban to function better
as a city? What could restore the image and reputation
of Durban and some of its institutions following recent
problems?
Emerging questions: 2
Is it fair to say that the city’s fortunes are not just a
local matter, but have significant implications for the
province and indeed for the country as a whole?
What can be done to ensure that Durban’s influence
on the prosperity of KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa
is properly recognised at provincial and national
levels? What more should the provincial and
national governments do to assist Durban?
Emerging questions: 3
Is there a need for greater economic literacy and
understanding among decision-makers? Do you
agree that economic development and job creation
are fundamental to the future well-being of local
citizens? What is distinctive about Durban’s
economy? What opportunities exist to strengthen
the city’s economy, encourage productive activity,
and boost jobs and livelihoods? What role(s) should
the Municipality play to stimulate additional
investment and jobs?
Emerging questions: 4
How can greater trust and cohesion be built among
the diverse population – from the bottom and the
top? What can be done to help citizens play a more
active role in tackling the complex challenges of
their communities? How can people’s
resourcefulness and social networks be
strengthened for the benefit of the city as a whole?
How important is it to attract and retain talent, and
what should be done?
Emerging questions: 5
Is the current pattern of fragmented and informal
development of urban land sustainable? How could
the benefits of urbanisation be optimised? Can you
envisage a more compact city within a more
integrated city-region? What are the implications of
the northern drift of investment and jobs, and how
could it be counter-balanced? How should the city
protect and restore vital natural systems, strengthen
food security and prepare for more constrained
water, energy and other resources in the future?
Emerging questions: 6
What can be done to establish more supportive
relationships and shared agendas between different
institutions in the region? How can the energy and
resources of key stakeholders in government,
business, labour and civil society be mobilised for
joint action to address the systemic challenges
facing the city, and to navigate a more uncertain
future collectively?
Emerging questions: 7
What are the respective roles of the KZN Province,
state entities and eThekwini Municipality in forging a
new development path for Durban? Does
urbanisation mean that more responsibilities and
resources should be transferred to the Municipality
over time to facilitate integrated planning? What
could and should eThekwini do differently if it had
more control over housing policy? And what should
it do about the public transport system?
Emerging questions: 8
How could the Municipality strengthen its own
capacity, resources and leadership to accelerate
economic and social progress and spatial
transformation? What kinds of partnerships
should it create, and with whom? What issues
have been neglected to date and deserve more
attention? Which other cities in SA and
elsewhere have valuable experiences that
Durban could learn from?
Emerging questions: 9
What contribution can you and your
organisation make to shaping the
city’s future?