Transcript South Africa

South Africa
Political Economy
Maj Tara Hasbrouck
Dawie Roodt
While hospitalized he released a 3-step plan:
 Encouraged compatriots to “forget about government
projects like the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) and
the National Development Plan (NDP).”
Mandate that all state employees reapply for their
positions
Establish a world-class skills-development program to
keep pace with the growing economy
Less about creating jobs and more about removing
barriers
Crisis
Pop is 53M; GDP is xxx USD
For 2015 projected growth at 2%; first quarter results
on 1.3% GDP v. 4.1% in 4th qtr
Debt: $114B, deficit is xxx% GDP
Unemployment up to 34,9% or 8,4 million without jobs
10M youth
2/3 not educated
Majority blacks - 36% unemployed
Attracted 10B in FDI in 2013/14
Has organizations Sasol, Bidvest, Nando, Shoprite, and Standard
Bank
Johannesburg Stock Exchange – top 20
In 2014, international tourists numbered from largest to
least as follows: German, Chinese, French, Australian,
Indian, and ????
Tourism – hampered by new visa regulations
Employs 1.5M South Africans and contributes to 9% country’s GDP
CH tourists decreased by 38% first quarter
Exports
Agriculture – wool, maize, sugar, fruit, etc
less than 3% GDP
50% from mining, 1/2M jobs
31% GDP
World leader in xxx and xxx, & some gold, diamonds,
and coal
Tremendous difficulty in tourism and mining
sectors due to government regulation
ANC won 62% of vote in country’s 5th national
elections; Jacob Zuma in power since ’09
Tripartite alliance between the ANC, the South African
Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South
Africa Trade Unions (COSATU)
Labour Relations Act (LRA) gave unions
disproportionate power relative to employers
Load shedding
Power comes via the state – ESKOM
Necessity to have load-curtailment agreements
Talk of Dept and Trade Industry purchasing
industrial-sized generators for manufacturing
enterprises
Nuclear power –5%
2015 Indo-African trade projected at US
$100B
SA is one of India’s largest investors at $112M
Bilateral trade jump from $5,3 B in 2001 to
$63 B in 2011
In SA, Indian textile workers earn R600/month
while Chinese manufacturing workers earn
R4000/month.
Trying to be a Developmental State Country’s strong planning capacity not
matched with policy implementation
Low long-term growth rates
Corruption
Inadequate human capital base
Persistent social inequalities
High structural unemployment needs