Transcript Nástrahy a léčky zavedení eura v ČR

Může eurozóna přežít?
€
Oldřich Dědek
Národní koordinátor pro zavedení eura v ČR
Leden 2012
1
Benefits from lost exchange rates
 More fair and less distortive competitive environment


Devaluations have equivalent effects to across-the-board export
subsidies and import surcharges
Discrimination of tradable goods
 Absence of internal monetary shocks in Euro Area



Fixed but adjustable regimes incompatible with free capital
mobility (Impossible Trinity)
Overshooting and herd behaviour of floating exchange rates
Global economic downturn is a symmetric shock that contradicts
OCA prescriptions
 Europe versus strong economic centres in USA, china,
Japan, India, Russia

One US dollar versus 40 different American dollars
 Key players interested in maintaining common currency

Germany (export-oriented economy), France (absence of
German hegemony), Italy (stable currency)
2
Real estate bubbles
Criticism of euro: Excessively weak monetary conditions
were echoed in real estate bubbles
200
190
180
170
Španělsko
160
Nový Zéland
150
Velká Británie
140
Austrálie
130
Irsko
120
USA
110
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Cumulative increase in housing prices (in real term). OECD, Economics: Key
tables from OECD.
 Limited power of monetary policy to address effectively
asset bubbles (likely sharp conflicts with other
objectives)
3
Building up of Greek debt
Criticism of euro: No threat of currency crises encourages
excessive indebtedness
1970
1980
1990
1993
1995
2000
2005
2007
2009
2010
17.7
22.3
71.0
98.3
97.0
103.7 100.3 105.0 126.8 140.2
Economic Comission: General government consolidated debt (excessive deficit
procedure)
 Sharp increase of debt occurred much earlier prior
to entry into the Eurozone
 Elimination of exchange rate risk does not eliminate the
need to evaluate properly credit risks
 Back to fragmentation of European financial markets?
4
Current account imbalances
Criticism of euro: Single currency precludes adjustment
through exchange rate changes
Gros D.: The long shadow of the fall of the wall, Vox, June 2010
 Germany: former „sick man of Europe“
 Devaluations are not the substiute for structural changes
 Danger of balance sheet mismatches (Iceland, Hungary)5
CB bank balance sheet expansion
European Central Bank: Monthly Bulletin, February 2002.
6
Institutional descendants of crisis
 More integrated regulatory framework - European System of
Financial Supervisors



EBA – European Banking Authority
EIOPA – European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority
ESMA – European Securities and Markets Authority
 Strengthened fiscal surveillance
 Amendments to the Stability and Growth Pact
 Directive on minimum requirements for national fiscal frameworks
 Strengthened macroeconomic surveillance
 European Systemic Risk Board (ECB)
 System for prevention and correction of macro-imbalances (Excessive
Imbalance Procedure)
 European Semester
 Euro bulwark
 EFSM – European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism
 EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility
 ESM – European Stability Mechanism
 Pact for Euro
 Further far-reaching changes are in the pipeline
7