Transcript 2012 Annual Growth Survey - EESC European Economic and Social

1
European Semester 2012
EUROPE 2020
2
Annual Growth Survey 2012
EUROPE 2020
Context: Recovery is ailing
3
•EU GDP level in recent years
EU GDP level
(first quarter
2005 = 100)
(2005Q1=100)
Forecast
112
110
108
106
104
102
20
05
20 Q1
05
20 Q2
05
20 Q3
05
20 Q4
06
20 Q1
06
20 Q2
06
20 Q3
06
20 Q4
07
20 Q1
07
20 Q2
07
20 Q3
07
20 Q4
08
20 Q1
08
20 Q2
08
20 Q3
08
20 Q4
09
20 Q1
09
20 Q2
09
20 Q3
09
20 Q4
10
20 Q1
10
20 Q2
10
20 Q3
10
20 Q4
11
20 Q1
11
20 Q2
11
20 Q3
11
Q4
100
EU GDP grew strongly early in 2011, but has slowed substantially since then.
Growth in the second half of 2011 is expected to be slow, stalling by the end
of the year. Forecast for 2012 is 0.6% GDP growth.
Source: European Commission
EUROPE 2020
Unemployment is reaching high
Total unemployment
rate, seasonally adjusted
levels
4
•Unemployment rates in the EU, Euro Area, US
12
%
and Japan
10
8
6
4
2
EU27
EA17
1
11
Q
3
20
10
Q
1
US
20
10
Q
3
20
09
Q
1
US
20
09
Q
3
Euro area
20
08
Q
1
20
08
Q
3
20
07
Q
1
20
07
Q
3
20
06
Q
1
EU
20
06
Q
3
20
05
Q
20
20
05
Q
1
0
Japan
Japan
23 million people are now unemployed in the EU (10% of the working age
population) and 16 million in the euro area (9.5%). The slight improvement
since 2010 has come to an halt.
Source: European Commission
EUROPE 2020
Young people are particularly hit
5
Under
25 yrs olds unemployment rate,
seasonally
•Youth
unemployment
rates
inadjusted
the EU, Euro
%
Area and US
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
EU
1
11
Q
3
20
10
Q
1
20
10
Q
3
EA17area US
Euro
20
09
Q
1
20
09
Q
3
20
08
Q
1
EU27
20
08
Q
3
20
07
Q
1
20
07
Q
3
20
06
Q
1
20
06
Q
3
20
05
Q
20
20
05
Q
1
(under 25 year-olds)
US
Unemployment is twice as high for young people. It has increased sharply due
to the crisis and is now over 20%.
Source: European Commission
EUROPE 2020
Confidence has been shaken…
6
•EU business investment ratios and households savings
Business
investment
rate
EU 27 Business
investment rate
(% of gross added value)
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q1
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q1
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
EU 27 Households'saving
saving raterate
Households'
(% of disposable income)
15
14
13
12
11
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q3
10
Investors are still holding back, and household savings rates reflect caution,
limiting overall economic demand.
Source: European Commission
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: structure
7
-
A Communication from the Commission - with an annex :
EU specific proposals with substantial growth potential
and indicative timelines
-
4 annexes
1. Progress report on Europe 2020 strategy
2. Macro-economic report
3. Joint employment report
4. Growth friendly tax policies in Member States and
better tax coordination in the EU.
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Key messages
8
- Implementing the outcome of the 2011 European Semester is
so far below expectations => strong emphasis on
implementation in 2012 AGS
-
Five priority areas for action:
1. Pursuing differentiated growth- friendly fiscal
consolidation
2. Restoring normal lending to the economy
3. Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and
tomorrow
4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of
the crisis
5. Modernising public administration
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
9
1. Pursuing differentiated growth- friendly fiscal consolidation
-Differentiated strategies depending on the situation of MS
(under financial assistance, with excessive deficit or without)
- Priority to be given on growth-friendly expenditure:
education, research, innovation and energy. Reinforce
employment services and active labour market policies.
- Continue the reform and modernisation of the pension
system- respecting national traditions of social dialogue
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
10
Improve the contribution of the revenue side to fiscal consolidation:
For example by
- Broadening the tax base of certain taxes, reducing distortions (ex:
VAT exemptions, environmentally harmful subsidies)
- Shifting taxation away from labour towards taxation less detrimental
to growth: consumption, environment, wealth
- Improving the efficiency of tax collection and tackling tax evation
- Coordinating MS efforts through enhanced dialogue at EU level.
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
11
2. Restoring normal lending to the economy
-
Facilitating bank access to term funding
-
Strenghtening bank capital positions
-
Specific regime for SME growth markets
-
SME loan activity through EIB/EIF
-
New European venture capital regime
-
Implement new regulatory framework for EU financial markets
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
12
2. Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow
- Build the EU digital single market: secure mobile and on-line
payment systems, investing in high-speed broadband connections,
consumer protection for buying goods on line, ICT for smart energy
and transport systems across the EU.
- A real internal market for services: raise awareness of operators
about the possibilities offered by the Service directive (eg points of
contacts), enhance competition in the retail sector, eliminate
restrictions for businesses and professional services, legal
professions, accounting, health sectors.
- Tapping into the potential of external trade: 90% of global growth
in the coming years will come from outside the EU.
EUROPE 2020
Still a large potential for the internal market
13
Medium-term impact (2020) on EU GDP of specific EU level
reform measures – model simulations
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Services
Services Directive
Directive
Integrated
Integratedmarket
marketfor
forenergy
energy
Financial integration
integration
Financial
including
including venture
venture
capital
capital
Public
Public procurement
procurement
modernisation
modernisation
•Completing the single market would significantly boost growth.
These reforms would add around 3% to the GDP level in 2020.
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
14
- Mobilise the EU budget for growth and competitiveness
- Using the potential of the EU structural funds
- Room for using or re-programming available funds: ex: support
apprenticeship for young people with the ESF or energy efficiency
investments programmes for household and firms
- Agree Commission proposal to increase the co-financing rates
-> Annex indentifying EU level decisions which can give an immediate
boost to growth.
EUROPE 2020
There is room for faster absorption of EU
funds
15
•Payments to Member States under EU cohesion policy
2007-2013 (as of today)
50%
45%
40%
Absorption rate
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Note: total amount already paid from EU budget to each Member State as a percentage of the total allocation for 2007-2013.
Figures include advance payments of between 7.5% and 11% per Member State.
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
16
4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis
Mobilising labour for growth:
- Enhance labour mobility by, for example, facilitating the recognition
of professional qualifications and experience
- Implement recommendations on revision of wage-setting
mechanisms
- Restricting access to early retirement schemes, support life-long
learning
- Facilitate the development of sectors with high employment potentialincluding in the low-carbon economy, health and social sectors and
digital economy.
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
17
Supporting employment of young people
- Target young people not in employment, education or training
- Engage with social partners to implement commitments to promote
apprenticeships and traineeship contracts
- Reform employment protection legislation in consultation with social partners
to reduce over-protection of workers with permanent contracts
- Adapt education and training to reflect labour market skills demand
- Review the quality and funding of universities
Protecting the vulnerable
- Improve the effectiveness of social protection systems
- Implement active inclusion strategies
- Ensure access to services supporting integration in the labour market (basic
payment account, electricity supply, access to affordable housing)
EUROPE 2020
2012 Annual Growth Survey: Policy priorities
18
5. Modernising public administration
-
Minimise administrative burdens
-
Increase administrative efficiency (e.g. through e-government)
-
Implement the Small Business Act commitments to reduce time for
starting up a company to 3 days by end 2012
EUROPE 2020
Europe 2020 : where are we with our targets?
19
EMPLOYMENT
75% of the population aged 20-64 should be employed
INNOVATION
3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D
CLIMATE / ENERGY A reduction of CO2 emissions by 20%
Share of renewable energies up to 20%
An increase in energy efficiency by 20%
EDUCATION
The share of early school leavers should be under 10%
At least 40% of the younger generation should
have a degree or diploma
POVERTY
20 million fewer people should be at risk of poverty
EUROPE 2020
European Semester 2012: main steps
20
• AGS launched the 2012 European Semester for economic
governance, 23/11/2011
• AGS to be examined by the Spring European Council on 1-2/3/2012
• Guidance to be incorporated in Member States’ updated NRP/SCP
to be submitted in April 2012
• Commission to issue Country Specific Recommendations in view of
European Council on 28-29/6/2012
• The new surveillance tools agreed as part of the 'Six Pack' will be
used within the framework of the European Semester; possibility for
sanctions in case of non compliance with CSRs
EUROPE 2020
What is your role?
21
Providing input to policy processes at national and EU level
- National level: Early input to the preparation and follow-up of NRPs
- EU-level:
• Feed-back on national NRP/Europe 2020 process: are you involved?
• Positions regarding the CSRs and planned actions by main social and
economic stakeholders
• Your assessment of implementation of CSRs and other policy commitments
(e.g. Euro plus pact, 2020 targets, flagships) at national level
• Timely EESC input feeding into Europe 2020 and the European semester
EUROPE 2020
What is your role?
22
Key role in implementation on the ground
• As underlined by the AGS: « The social partners will have an important
role to play in implementing some of the recommendations. »
• In particular in mobilising employment for growth : revising wagesetting mechanisms, adapt unemployment benefits, combined with
effective activation and training.
• And supporting employment: Promote quality apprenticeships and
traineeships contracts
• Reform employment protection legislations, reduce the rigidities of
permanent contracts, provide easier access to people left outside,
particularly young people
EUROPE 2020
23
Documents and more information at
www.ec.europa.eu/europe2020
EUROPE 2020
2011 Recommendations for action at national level
24
Public finances
Labour market
Fiscal
consolidation
Long-term
Sustainability
Fiscal
framework
22
16
10
Taxation
Wage
Setting
Active
Labour
Market
Policy
Labour
market
participation
6
8
11
17
Structural policies
Education
Network
industries
Energy
efficiency
9
7
5
Service
sector
Financial stability
Business
environment and
SMEs
R&D
and
innovation
Public
services
and
cohesion
policy
Banking
Housing
market
6
2
7
5
3
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
HU
IT
LT
LU
MT
NL
PL
SE
SI
SK
UK
Total number
10
NB: for EL, IE, LV, PT and RO, the only recommendation is to implement existing commitments under EU/IMF financial assistance programmes
EUROPE 2020
25
EUROPE 2020
EUROPE 2020