1.2 - United Nations Statistics Division

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Transcript 1.2 - United Nations Statistics Division

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
African Centre for
Statistics
Towards Implementation of the 2008 SNA in Africa:
Importance, Challenges, and Road Map
Xiaoning Gong
Chief, Economic Statistics and National Accounts Section
African Centre for Statistics (ACS)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
at
Seminar on Developing a Programme for the Implementation of
2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in Southern Africa,
17-19 October 2012, Pretoria, South Africa
Presentation Outline
• Importance of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
• Current Status of SNA in African Countries
• Road Map towards Implementation of SNA 2008
African Centre for
Statistics
Importance of SNA
• National Accounts are, arguably, one of the most
important modern tools of economic analysis
and policy making:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Systematic and strong base of macroeconomics
Application of double-entry accounting principle
International standard methodology
Mathematization and computerization of the work
Complete picture of whole economic process
High relevance and orientation of current policies
African Centre for
Statistics
Billions
Importance of SNA: Chinese GDP in USD
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
African Centre for
Statistics
Current Status of SNA in African
Countries
• Limited Human, Financial, and Technical
Resources
• Weak Capacity and Statistical Infrastructure
• Unharmonious National Accounts Systems in the
Continent
• Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the Data
Coverage of the Economy
• Early Stages in the Development of National
Accounts
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Statistics
Limited Human, Financial, and Technical
Resources
• National Accounts in Africa is mainly compiled by
– National Statistical Offices (89%)
– Other Ministries & Central Banks (11%)
• Average number of NA Statisticians per country = 8
• High turnover rate: 4 professional staff have left from
the NA Department in the last five years
• Half of the countries: “Number of PC available in NA
Department” < “Number of National Accounts staff”
African Centre for
Statistics
Weak Capacity and Statistical
Infrastructure
• Relied mostly (60%70%) on Administrative Records to
meet the minimum requirement datasets for National
Accounts
• Analytical capacity, dissemination, and networks with
users and respondents:
– On average, it takes 5 months to release the first
estimate
– The final estimate takes around 17 months
– Advance release calendar exists only in about half of
the countries
African Centre for
Statistics
• ISIC
• SNA
Percentages
Unharmonious National Accounts
Systems in the Continent
12
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
36
26
20
10
ISIC Rev. 4
SNA 1993
ISIC Rev.
3.1
ISIC Rev. 3 ISIC Rev. 2
8
Others
Classifications
SNA 1968
35
Percentages
30
88
28
30
25
25
20
17
15
10
5
0
• CPC
CPC Ver. 2
CPC Ver. 1.1.
CPC Ver. 1
Others
Classifications
African Centre for
Statistics
Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the
Data Coverage of the Economy
According to ICP-Africa 2005, the following areas have not
been well captured:
– Imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings
– Own-account production and consumption
– Informal sector
– Non-profit institutions and civil societies
– State and local government, and
– Aid agencies
African Centre for
Statistics
Early Stages in the Development of
National Accounts
•
•
•
20% of the total African countries have reached only to
Milestone 1: Basic Indicators of GDP at Current and Constant
Prices; Final Expenditures on GDP and GDP by Industry.
65% have so far reached to Milestone 2: to produce additional
economic aggregates of GNI, and other primary indicators;
External Account of Primary Income and Current Transfers,
Capital and Financial Accounts for the Rest of the World.
15% (eight) African countries have reached to Milestone 3:
Production Account for All Institutional Sectors; while Income
Accounts, Capital Accounts, and Financial Accounts for General
Government.
African Centre for
Statistics
Road Map towards Implementation of
SNA 2008
• SNA Regional ProDoc: Scheme
– Contents of main activities and
– Roles played by AGNA members
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Statistics
SNA Regional ProDoc: Scheme
Institutional Strengthening
Methodological
Development
Training
Technical
Assistance
Advocacy Campaign
Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting
African Centre for
Statistics
Methodological Development
• To develop a set of manuals/handbooks/guides for
implementation of SNA 2008
• To discuss and find solutions for technical issues and
challenges in the implementation of SNA 2008 in Africa
• To be carried out by Task Force Teams of AGNA
Countries
RECs
Methodological
Development
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Capacity Building: Training
• Self-training of AGNA through Task Teams working on
technical issues
• Regional seminars/workshops/meetings to disseminate
Manuals/Handbooks/Guides
• Training of national accountants at national levels by
AGNA members
Countries
RECs
Training
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Capacity Building: Technical Assistance
• Provided by Pan-African Institutions, RECs, Regional National
Accounts Advisors upon the request of Member States
• To countries: lagging behind in the implementation of the 1993
SNA, ICP Africa 2005 non-participating countries, and Fragile
and Small Developing countries
RECs
Technical Assistance
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Institutional Strengthening
• Through AGNA, to establish commonly agreed timelines,
procedures, and standards in the Continent, e.g.:
– To compile NA statistics according to timeline in respect of the national,
sub-regional, and regional requirements
– To optimize and rationalize production and analysis of NA
– To develop training programs and modules of NA
– To set up national accountant’s profile
Countries
RECs
Institutional
Strengthening
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Advocacy Campaign
• To organize advocacy at continental, sub-regional, and
national levels: e.g. through DG meetings, Conference of
Ministers, Summits of Heads of States, and parliaments
• Prepare advocacy materials and tools to publicize and
sensitize the usefulness of NA statistics in policy- and
decision-making for governments and publics
Countries
RECs
Advocacy Campaign
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting
• To develop tools, framework, and procedure of and to carry out
monitoring, evaluation and reporting activities for the
implementation of the 2008 SNA
• It is to be conducted by Pan-African Institutions, RECs, and
Member States at the Continent, sub-regional, and national levels
• Peer review among countries
Countries
RECs
Monitoring, Evaluation
and Reporting
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Summary
• Importance of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
– one of the most important tools of economic analysis and
policy making
– Systematic application of macroeconomic theory
– Portrayal of the whole economic process
• Current Status of SNA in African Countries
– Limited resources and weak capacity
– Not harmonious and inconsistent and Incomplete Coverage
– At an early stage of the development of national accounts
• Road Map towards Implementation of SNA 2008
– Six activities and
– Work together by sharing responsibilities among AGNA
African Centre for
Statistics
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
African Centre for
Statistics
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