Transcript Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2016
March 15, 2016
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
–
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/tagged/COP-Paris
Resources and Recommended Reading
• International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/ works
to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28
member countries and beyond.
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy
use and future trends.
– Frequently Asked Questions
• The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link)
– This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to
reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth
• Throughout the presentation
Resources and Recommended Reading
• Rood Blogs
– We Like to Burn Things
– All the Oil We Want
– No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate
Policy
– Earthquakes and Climate Change
Outline: Class 14, Winter 2016
• Analysis: Kaya Identity
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Kaya Identity
• Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
• Roger Pielke, Junior
– The Climate Fix Book
– The Climate Fix Lecture
– The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
– Fallacy of Magical Solutions
Energy and Economic Success
The point of this figure is that
economic success and energy
use are strongly correlated.
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)
Context: Growth
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
Paris
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Where do emissions come from?
People
Population
P
Engage in economic activity that
GDP per person
GDP/P
Uses energy from
Energy intensity of the economy
TE/GDP
Carbon emitting generation
Carbon intensity of energy
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP
-----P
*
C/TE
TE
* C
------GDP
TE
The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
Factor
Lever
Approach to Policy
P
Population
Less people
Population management
GDP/P
GDP per person
Smaller economy
Limit generation of wealth
TE/GDP
Energy intensity
Increase efficiency
Do same or more with less energy
Carbon intensity
Switch energy sources
Generate energy with less emissions
C/TE
Carbon emissions = C =
P * GDP
-----P
*
TE
---GDP
* C
---TE
GDP Technology
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
• GDP/person is considered the “societal
success”
• Energy use increases have been driven by
growth in population and GDP/person.
Energy by Source
Energy – World Scale Dimensions
1 exajoule (EJ) = 1018 Joules
15
1 Quadrillion BTU (Quad) = 10 BTU
3
6
12
1 Terawatt (TW)=10 Gigawatts=10 Megawatts=10 Watts
1 Mtoe = energy equivalent of 1 million tonnes of oil
1 TWyr ≈ 30 Quads ≈ 30 EJ ≈ 750 Mtoe
World energy consumption (2014) ≈ 517 Quads/yr
US Energy Consumption (2014) ≈ 98 Quads/yr
Global petroleum consumption ≈ 1 cubic mile of oil/yr
Thanks to Mark Barteau
World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003
*
megaton oil equivalent
Source: International Energy Agency 2005
Update from IEA
• CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013
– 1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels
– 2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels
• Emissions by category
–
–
–
–
83% energy production
8% agricultural
6% industrial processes
3% waste
2011 Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions
13 111 Megaton oil equivalent
Oil 32%
Oil 35%
Coal 29% Gas 21%
Coal 44%
Other
18%
Gas
20%
Portion of Energy
Production
1%
Portion of CO2
Emission
Source: International Energy Agency
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption 2013
Coal Top Source for Electricity, WSJ, 2014
Historical and Projected World Energy Use by Fuel
daily consumption (2010)
US
OIL
NATURAL GAS
COAL
20 million barrels
60 billion cubic feet
3 million tons
China
8 million barrels
4 billion cubic feet
10 million tons
(US + China = 37% of World consumption in 2010)
One cubic mile of oil per year
Source: Exxon Mobil Energy Outlook, 2013
Thanks to Mark Barteau
World Carbon Emissions
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
•
1950
CO2 emissions arise from:
1. Cement production (~5 %)
2. Deforestation (~20 %)
3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %)
2000
75%
CO2 source: Deforestation
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
Fossil fuels
8
6
4
Deforestation
Total
cement and
gas flaring
320
200 GtC
gas
520
Compare with 590 GtC in
the preindustrial
atmosphere
oil
coal
2
deforestation
•
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:
– It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions
– It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial times.
IEA Plots of Energy Balance and Use
•
•
•
•
IEA Statistics
IEA Energy Balances
IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram
IEA Glossary: for Balances
Trend of fossil fuel use
IEA on Renewables
• In ‘businessas-usual’
fossil fuels will
continue to
dominate
world energy
• Currently
rapid increase
of coal use,
globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes
• Hydrogen Fuel Cells
• Renewables and Renewable Portfolios
– U.S. Trade and Solar Panels
– Wind Tax Credit
– Biofuels
• Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar, Algae
• Fracking
• Natural Gas Displacing Coal
• Methane Leakage from Fracking
Emissions from economic sectors
• Some of these numbers are out of date, but balance and
message is consistent over time
• Details at end of presentation
Emissions from economic sectors
• Industrial: creating
products from raw
materials (mining,
cement, agriculture)
US energy use by sector
• Commercial: stores,
municipalities, etc.
• Transportation: cars,
planes, ships
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
US Energy Consumption (2014)
Electricity Generation (39% of total)
42% Coal, 22% Natural Gas, 22% Nuclear, 8% Hydroelectric, 5%
Other Renewables, <1% Petroleum
Transportation Fuels (27 % of total)
92% Petroleum, 3% Natural Gas, 5% Renewables
Very little overlap between energy sources for these
two dominant sectors!
Thanks to Mark Barteau
Agriculture: A different slice
• This is a very complex way to look at the
problem
• (Some) Details at end of presentation
Agriculture: A different slice
• UN Food and Agriculture Organization
– Livestock’s Long Shadow
• Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
• Livestock and Climate Change
• Rood Blogs
– Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture
– We Are What We Eat
– How Much Does It Cost?
Agriculture
• Use of direct fossil fuel energy
relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in
industrialized countries.
– Half of used energy and direct
CO2 emissions are from fertilizer
production (Haber-Bosch
process)
• BUT… big contributor to
deforestation and land use
change.
• Livestock rearing is most
significant contributor
Agriculture: Livestock
• Responsible for ~18 % of CO2
equivalent GHG emissions (so
including N2O and CH4)
 Same share as entire US!
– 9 % of world CO2 emissions
• Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
• Deforestation and land use changes for
feed production and grazing (bulk!)
• Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest
anthropogenic source)
• Animal manure
– 65 % of N2O
• Mostly from animal manure deposited on
soils, with subsequent N2O emission
10
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
– 37 % of world CH4 emissions
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
End use
• Details at end of presentation
Energy consumption by end use
• The three main end
uses of fossil fuel are:
– Electric power plants
(~40 % of CO2 emissions)
– Transportation (~23 % of
CO2 emissions)
– Direct use of fuel (industrial
processes and heating for
buildings) (~37 % of CO2
emissions)
• So ~40 % CO2 emissions
from electricity, 60 % from
fuels
World CO2 emissions
by fuel and end use
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
Analysis: Kaya Identity
Kaya Identity
• Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
• Roger Pielke, Junior
– The Climate Fix Book
– The Climate Fix Lecture
– The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
– Fallacy of Magical Solutions
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
Factor
Lever
Approach to Policy
P
Population
Less people
Population management
GDP/P
GDP per person
Smaller economy
Limit generation of wealth
TE/GDP
Energy intensity
Increase efficiency
Do same or more with less energy
Carbon intensity
Switch energy sources
Generate energy with less emissions
C/TE
Carbon emissions = C =
P * GDP
-----P
*
TE
---GDP
* C
---TE
GDP Technology
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
• GDP/person is considered the “societal
success”
• Energy use increases have been driven by
growth in population and GDP/person.
Pielke Jr. argues
• The need for technology to make solutions
possible.
• Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources,
desire for economic growth makes energy use
an imperative
• Must go
– From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
– To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
Paris
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Emissions Trajectories
https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/
Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between
energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of
fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas
Context: Energy and Climate Change
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
• Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
Summary: Class 14, Winter 2016
• Analysis: Kaya Identity
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
Summary: Class 14, Winter 2016
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity
Outline: Class 14, Winter 2016
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity
Appendix: Supplementary Slides
•
•
•
•
•
Details on coal, oil and natural gas
Details on sectors
Details on agriculture
Details on end use
Interesting and complex summary graphic
from Department of Energy
• Air quality and aerosols
• Responses to manage emissions
In what forms do we consume energy?
• Fossil fuels:
– Coal
– Oil
– Natural gas
• Other:
– Nuclear
– Hydro
– Renewables
(mostly
biomass)
– ‘Hydrogen’
Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all
fossil fuels
• Accounts for ~45% of world CO2
emissions (2013, IEA)
• Used mostly for electricity and for home
heating (especially in developing
nations)
• Coal burning emits significant amounts
of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
• Proven reserves are very high
Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per
unit energy.
• Accounts for ~35 % of world CO2
emissions (2013, IEA)
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also
used for home/building heating
• Proven reserves of conventional oil are
small number of decades
• After that, unconventional oil (fracking, tar
sands etc.) many decades
• U.S. dependency on imported oil has been
a major national security concern
Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and
“peak oil”
Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels:
emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per
unit energy
• Accounted for ~20% of world CO2
emissions (2013, IEA)
• Used for electricity generation and
home heating (same as coal)
• Proven reserves with fracking are
large
Methane Leakage and Fracking
Details on Sectors
Transportation sector
• Sector with fastest
growing CO2 emissions
in US
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
• Dominated by oil and
road transport
• Accounts for ~23 % of
worldwide and ~32 % of
US CO2 emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Residential and Commercial: Buildings
• Both residential and
commercial (stores,
municipalities, etc.)
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
• Mostly electricity,
except for fuel use
for space heating
• Accounts for ~39 %
of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Industrial sector
• Includes mining,
refining, factories, etc.
• The fraction of energy
used by this sector
generally decreases as
countries become more
developed.
• Also includes
agriculture…
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
U.S. industrial energy consumption
by fuel
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Details on agriculture
Agriculture: Livestock
• 2006 report of Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the UN:
– “The livestock sector emerges as one
of the top two or three most significant
contributors to the most serious
environmental problems, at every scale
from local to global.”
• Important economic sector:
– Employs > billion people (mostly poor)
– Occupies 30 % of Earth’s land surface
through grazing (26 %) and feed
production
• 33 % of arable land for feed production
Agriculture: Livestock
• Increasing demand for livestock
products (meat, dairy) is one of
main drivers of deforestation
– 70 % of deforested land in Amazon
is occupied by pastures.
– Feedcrops cover most of remaining
30 %.
– Livestock-induced deforestation
emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared
to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use
and ~2 GtC total deforestation)
• Livestock demand increasing
rapidly with increasing world
wealth (India, China). Should
more than double by 2050.
Details of End Use
Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
• Two thirds of
world electricity
production
comes from
fossil fuels
• One third from
hydro and
nuclear power
Cost of Electricity
Cost of
electricity in US
in 2002
Electricity generation by source,
U.S., 2006
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
• Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
What is changing in this balance ?
Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use
• ‘Direct fuel use’:
– Transportation (oil)
– Heating in buildings
– Industrial processes
• Dominated by oil
• No real alternatives for
transportation fuels
– Biofuels do not mitigate
CO2 emission
– Future switch to
renewable-powered
hydrogen and/or electric
cars?
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Summary graphic from Department of Energy
Summary Points: U.S. Energy
Air quality and aerosols
Aerosols, Fossil Fuels and Radiative Balance
• Burning of fossil
fuels is important
source of particulate
matter (aerosols),
which helps cool
climate by:
– Scattering
radiation
– Seeding clouds
• Cleaning up ‘dirty
coal’ might thus not
be good for
climate…
Responses to manage emissions
• What are the responses that make sense?
–
–
–
–
Regulation
Life time responsibility for product – the coke can
Improve use of current resources – efficiency
Integrate development and climate change - adaptation
• What might motivate those responses?
–
–
–
–
Potential costs
Make the cost right … do not deny “use”
Cost of inefficiency
Social justice issues
• What might hinder those responses?
–
–
–
–
Cost – benefit
Lack of flexibility
Social justice issues
Economy versus environment