Transcript Taiwan - hse.ru

Taiwan
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Taiwan in 2010
Import Substitution in 1950s
Export Promotion in 1960s
Toward High-techs
SMEs-Driven Taiwan
Credit Rationing
Foreign and Cross-Strait Trade
Taiwan in 2010
• GDP (2011): $467 billion, with per capita
GDP $20,083.
Unemployment (April 2011): 4.29%.
• Natural resources: Small deposits of coal,
natural gas, limestone, marble, and
asbestos.
Industry Structure in 2010
• Agriculture (1.6% of GDP): Major
products--pork, rice, fruit and
vegetables, flowers, sugarcane, poultry,
shrimp, eel.
• Services: (67.1% of GDP).
• Industry (31.3% of GDP): Types-electronics and flat panel products,
chemicals and petrochemicals, basic
metals, machinery, textiles, transport
equipment, plastics, machinery.
Export in 2010
• Exports--$274.6 billion: electronics,
optical and precision instruments,
information and communications
products, textile products, basic metals,
plastic and rubber products.
• Major markets--P.R.C. and Hong Kong
$114.8 billion, U.S. $31.5 billion, Japan
$14.5 billion.
Import in 2010
• Imports--$251.4 billion: electronics, optical
and precision instruments, information and
communications products, machinery and
electrical products, chemicals, basic metals,
transport equipment, crude oil.
• Major suppliers--Japan $36.2 billion, P.R.C.
and Hong Kong $37.6 billion, U.S. $25.4
billion.
Education in 2010
• Compulsory : 6 years of elementary school and
3 years of middle school.
• About 98% of middle graduates go to either a
high or vocational school.
• Extensive higher education system with 165
institutions of higher learning.
• 147,561 applied for admission to colleges; 100%
of the applicants were offered placement and
76% of the candidates actually enrolled.
• Over 15,890 U.S. student visas were issued to
Taiwan passport holders.
Beginning of Industrialization in
1950s
• Rice and sugar cane had been major
products during Japanese rule for 18951945.
• KMT confiscated all industries formerly held
by Japanese.
• Land reform program redistributed land
among small farmers and compensated
large landowners with commodities
certificates and stock in state-owned
industries.
Private-Led Industrialization
• Who would lead industrialization? Public
enterprises? Or private entrepreneurs?
• KMT decided private-led industrialization.
• Some large landowners turned their
compensation into capital to become first
generation of industrial entrepreneurs.
• Refugee businessmen from the mainland
joined them to transform Taiwan from an
agrarian to an industrial economy.
But Strong State Initiatives
• Fiscal policy : awarded tax-tariff benefit
on industrial activities complying national
plans.
• Foreign exchange control to address
foreign exchange gap.
• State-owned bank system imposed low
interest rate with credit rationing
(investment savings gap).
US Aid
• The United States resumed aid as much
as $4 billion, accounting for 5 percent of
GNP, to Taiwan during the Korean War,
enabling Taiwan to invest in
infrastructure.
• Agricultural production increased by 14
percent and provided much of the
investment capital and labor needed for
later industrialization.
Import Substitution
• The first four-year economic
development plan (1953–56) :
reconstruction, hydro-electric power,
increased production of rice, fertilizers.
• In The second four-year plan (1957–60)
encouraged import substitution
industries.
Export Promotion Begins
• The third four-year plan (1961–64) :
labor-intensive export industries, energy
development, agricultural growth, and
exploration and development of the
island's limited natural resources.
• US loans and grants, totaling $2.2 billion,
and foreign direct investment financed
these early stages of development.
FDIs
• FDIs in Taiwan helped not only to finance
industrialization but also to introduce
modern, labor-intensive technology, and
Taiwan became a major exporter of
labor-intensive products.
• Most FDIs were made by overseas
Chinese and some Japanese.
Frustration on Heavy and
Chemical Industries in 1970s
• By 1971, exports of manufactured goods
recorded a spectacular increases, and
Taiwan's trade accounts changed from
chronic deficit to stable surplus.
• Attempt to redirect from labor-intensive
industries to capital-intensive ones such
as shipbuilding, and petrochemicals.
• The worldwide recession hit adversely.
Toward High-Tech in 1980s
• Focus shifted toward sophisticated, capitaland technology-intensive products such as
computers, robotics, and bioengineering for
export and to develop the service sector.
• The appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, rising
labor costs, and increasing environmental
consciousness in Taiwan kicked out many
labor-intensive industries, such as shoe
manufacturing, to China and Southeast Asia.
1990s
• "Statute for Upgrading Industries“ was
legislated in early 1991 to provide
incentives for private investment in R&D
and high-technology sectors.
• Focus in the late 1990s concentrated on
expanded privatization of state
enterprises, and opening of the Taiwan
market to foreigners.
SME Driven Economy
• In 1985, small and medium enterprises
(those with fewer than 300 employees)
contributed about 50% of value added,
• and employed 62% of the workforce,
• and produced 65% of total export value.
Productivity of Taiwanese SMEs
• Levels and growth of productivity are
positively correlated with firm size. Why?
- Self selection of more efficient
producers that survive over time
- Larger firms enjoy better access to more
resources, better techniques.
• In Taiwan, superior micro and small firms
have grown up to medium sized firms with
higher productivity.
• It was the process of survival and growth
rather than the absolute size.
Credit Rationing and Informal
Credit Market
• Banking system had been mostly
government owned until 1989.
• Credits had been rationed mainly to
public enterprises and large-scale private
enterprises in export-oriented industries.
• Bank credits came as additional and
concessionary to most SMEs.
Informal Credit Markets
• Productivity, profitability, and growth
potential of industries had little effect on
credit rationing decisions.
• Productive SMEs attained credit from
informal markets.
• Credit from informal market was
estimated about 30-60% of total loans.
Foreign Trade
• Foreign trade has been the engine of
Taiwan's rapid growth during the past 50
years.
• The total value of trade increased more
than 200-fold in past 50 years.
• Export composition changed from
agricultural commodities to industrial goods
(now 98%). Taiwan is the world's largest
supplier of computer monitors and PCs.
Continued
• Imports of raw materials and capital goods
account for more than 90% of the total.
• The mainland China supplanted the US as
Taiwan's largest trade partner in 2003.
• In 2010, China (including Hong Kong)
accounted for over 29.0% of Taiwan's total
trade and 41.8% of Taiwan's exports. Japan
was Taiwan's second-largest trading partner
with 13.3% of total trade, including 20.7%
of Taiwan's imports.
Cross-Strait Trade
• In February 2002, Taiwan formally
permitted direct cross-Strait trade.
• Cross-Strait trade has grown rapidly over
the past 10 years. China is Taiwan's largest
trading partner, and Taiwan is China's
seventh-largest.
• Estimates of Taiwan investment on the
mainland, range from $150 billion to over
$300 billion, making Taiwan and Hong Kong
by some measures the two largest investors
in the P.R.C.
continued
• On June 29, 2010, following 6 months of
negotiations, Taiwan and the P.R.C.
signed the Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA), aimed at
bringing about liberalization of crossStrait trade in products and services, and
eventually creating an essentially freetrade regime.