Transcript Mike Alexander - the Atlanta Regional Commission

The Green of Gray:
THE NEW ECONOMY
of an Aging
Population
Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike”
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
[email protected]
1
2
www.gapminder.org
Longevity
National Population Change 2010 to 2040
120000
100000
In Millions
80000
60000
19,166
40000
28,107
20000
0
11,098
-4,087 -3,834
-13,924
3
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (National Data
from the 20- County Area Forecast)
Hispanic 65+
Hispanic 25-64
Hispanic 15-24
Hispanic 0-14
Other 65+
Other 25-64
Other 15-24
Other 0-14
Black 65+
Black 25-64
Black 15-24
Black 0-14
White 65+
White 25-64
White 15-24
White 0-14
-20000
Aging Now
50-54
284,076
-9,215
55-59
233,882
60-64
22,922
124,852
70-74
82,682
75-79
59,275
80-84
40,285
21,392
33,287
28,815
38,561
20,817
42,574 6,562
85+
4
31,088 22,506
190,688
65-69
-50,000
21,195
39,183 5,300
0
Source: Census and ESRI
Demographics
50,000
2010
100,000
150,000
Ch2010-2014
200,000
250,000
Ch2014-2019
300,000
350,000
Who is Working is Changing
0.600
1.000
Ages 65-69
Ages 70-74
Ages 16-19
Ages 75+
Ages 25-29
Ages 45-54
0.900
0.504
0.500
0.800
0.700
0.400
0.600
0.316
0.300
0.500
0.253
0.400
0.200
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.100
0.000
0.000
1990
5
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
NEW ECONOMIC STRENGTH
•
In 2013 Q1, those aged 65+ held 3.7% of
the jobs in the 10-county ARC area
•
The average monthly wage is $1,208 for
those 65+, which does lag the overall
average monthly wage for all others (1864) in the workforce at $1,400
• …For some higher-paying industries, e.g.
Professional Services, Mgmt. of Companies, average
wages for 65+ are higher
Billion in
65+ Wages
6
Actually, it is
$960 million
(2013)
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
Average Wages for Older Age Cohorts Growing
(particularly for 65+)
Change in Avg. Monthly Wages
2000-2008
Change in Avg. Monthly Wages,
2008-2013
$800
$800.00
$600
$600.00
$400
$400.00
$200
$200.00
$0
$0.00
($200)
($200.00)
($400.00)
($400)
14-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
65+
14-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
And in raw numbers, the 65+ trends are even more impressive
7
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
65+
Jobs Added in Older Age Cohorts,
Despite Overall Loss of Jobs
Job Change by Age Group,
2000-2008
Job Change by Age Group,
2008-2013
100,000
100,000
80,000
80,000
60,000
60,000
40,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
0
0
-20,000
-20,000
-40,000
-40,000
-60,000
-60,000
14-24
14-24
8
25-34
35-54
55-64
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
65+
25-34
35-54
55-64
65+
Growth in the 65+ Workforce
2000
34,000
2013
67,000
Increased by Almost 100%
• From 2000-2007, the jobs for those 65+
did increase 16,802, BUT
– Jobs for 18-64 increased 119,786
• The explosion in 65+ happened in
recession and recovery period of 20072013
• Between 2007 and 2013 (recession and
recovery), the 65+ workforce has
increased by 14,846 jobs while the 18-64
job base has declined by 78,656 jobs!
• So jobs filled by 65+ went up almost 30%, while
jobs filled by those aged 18-64 fell by 4%
9
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
Profile: Workers Age 65+ (Expanding Sectors)
Becoming more “popular”
Becoming less “popular”
Trans and Ware
Educational Services
Manufacturing
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Prof, Sci, and Tech Serv
Information
Health Care and Social Assistance
Management
Real Estate Rental and Leasing
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Construction
Admin/Support. & Waste Mang
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (except Pub Adm)
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 65+, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 65+
workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means
that workers age 65+ have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Education, Other
Services and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, Transportation/Warehousing,
and Manufacturing are becoming more popular for this age cohort.
1
0
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
Workforce by Age Q3 2013
14-18
Non Metro/Micro
5.74%
Chattanooga-GA part
5.82%
Brunswick
6.49%
Thomasville
6.04%
Dalton
5.42%
Waycross
22-24
19.55%
Valdosta
20.95%
Macon
6.69%
Rome
6.37%
Columbus-GA part
23.55%
8.15%
Jefferson
6.30%
Savannah
6.08%
LaGrange
10%
21.54%
23.33%
23.78%
21.18%
20%
22.50%
30%
40%
5.24%
22.92%
15.48%
5.01%
15.49%
4.90%
14.69%
4.88%
14.34%
4.73%
50%
16.15%
13.88%
60%
4.66%
4.48%
22.35%
15.05%
4.46%
22.49%
15.62%
4.30%
22.65%
15.37%
4.28%
22.09%
13.74%
4.23%
20.39%
14.68%
4.16%
12.62%
14.75%
22.76%
23.83%
22.53%
15.48%
21.60%
21.67%
22.08%
22.26%
22.33%
21.46%
22.41%
7.12%
0%
21.52%
22.65%
6.83%
Atlanta MSA
22.68%
22.10%
6.33%
Warner Robins
21.54%
22.66%
7.05%
Augusta- GA part
22.66%
22.11%
5.47%
21.08%
22.05%
21.81%
15.64%
22.52%
20.58%
6.03%
21.86%
20.32%
22.51%
22.88%
16.73%
22.28%
20.26%
22.70%
6.78%
Athens-Clarke
22.57%
21.68%
65-99
24.21%
21.98%
6.74%
Gainesville
21.80%
21.34%
55-64
23.32%
20.89%
22.07%
8.15%
45-54
22.35%
20.09%
6.17%
35-44
21.34%
9.13%
Albany
25-34
19.45%
6.41%
Statesboro
11
19-21
15.94%
4.14%
4.13%
4.06%
22.70%
14.04%
4.06%
23.31%
14.20%
3.87%
23.01%
14.42%
3.36%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rehearsing the Future using Economic
Forecasting
• Model incorporates
four unique
quantitative
methodologies
• Each model is
custom built to
match regional
client specificity
Source: REMI
12
Integrated
Dynamic
Customized
Structural
• Measures economic
impacts and
responsive
demographic and
economic changes
over time
• Incorporates
transparent and robust
economic linkages
built on proven
methods and theory
WHAT DOES REMI SAY?
REMI Econometric Model Features
Age Composition Change
12.00%
10.00%
Percent of Total Population
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%
0-4
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
1990
13
To 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
To 2040
85+
1990 Labor Force
14
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Labor Force 2013
15
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Labor Force 2040
16
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Tourism
17
Source: Deloitte lton “Graying of America” webinar
Fiscal Effects
of an Aging
Economic
Benefits
of Population
“Retirees”
• Retirees bring incomes earned from
outside of region
• Pension Payments, Social Security, and
other retirement savings
• Outside income spent on housing, health
care, consumer goods and services
• Attracting (or retaining) retirees can be
viewed as an “export industry” of the
region, similar to tourism
18
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Effects of anMigration
Aging Population
REMIFiscal
Retirement
Scenario
What if more retirees move to Metro Atlanta???
$40Billion
More in
Personal Income
$7.8Billion
In Additional GDP
19
Source: REMI
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC
TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions
– Annual increase of 1,000 65+ retired
migrants per year to 20-county economy
from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on 65+
population in each county
– No explicit costs considered
• Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits)
– Increase of $40B in Personal Income
2015-2040
– Increase of $7.8B in GDP 2015-2040
– Almost 100,000 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40
– Population increase of 16,000 by 2040
(LOSS across some other cohorts)
EffectsAge
of anMigration
Aging Population
REMI Fiscal
Working
Scenario
What if more working age(18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta?
$4Billion
More in
Personal Income
$2.6Billion
In Additional GDP
20
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC
TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions
– Annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged
18-64 per year to 20-county economy
from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on population
aged 18-64 in each county
– No explicit costs considered
• Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits)
– Increase of $4B in Personal Income
2015-2040
– Increase of $2.6 in GDP 2015-2040
– Almost 29,400 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40
– Population increase of 8,000 by 2040
Fiscal Effects
of an Aging
Retirement
Migration
andPopulation
the Economy
• Demand Side
– Retirees have significant spending on goods and services
– Consumption patterns differ for retirees (e.g. more health care
spending)
• Supply Side
– Loss of labor force as baby boom moves from working to
retirement
– Regions need to replace this labor force through natural growth
or in-migration
• Reminder of the caveats: no explicit costs AND…
• Scenario>> historically high 65+ in-migration
21
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Effects of anMigration
Aging Population
REMIFiscal
Retirement
Scenario
What if not quite as many more retirees move to Metro Atlanta???
$20Billion
More in
Personal Income
$3.9Billion
In Additional GDP
22
Source: REMI
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC
TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions
– Annual increase of 500 65+ retired
migrants per year to 20-county economy
from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on 65+
population in each county
– No explicit costs considered
• Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits)
– Increase of $20B in Personal Income
2015-2040
– Increase of $3.9B in GDP 2014-2040
– Almost 50,000 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40
– Population increase of 8,000 by 2040
(LOSS across some other cohorts)
Fiscal
Effects
an Aging
What
YouofNeed
toPopulation
Know!
• The New Economy is increasingly dependent on the
work of our 65+ population (share of labor force up)
• These workers are already earning close to a BILLION
dollars a year in wages, with average wages climbing
• In the future, these workers will add Billions to our
regional economy in the future.
• Attracting additional retirees to Metro Atlanta would
have strong positive impact to our Economy
 Income sources and spending patterns
• Seniors are a critical part of our economic
competitiveness
23
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
The Green of Gray:
THE NEW ECONOMY
of an Aging
Population
Michael D. Alexander, AICP “Mike”
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
[email protected]
24
Population Growth Comparison
200,000,000
150,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
100,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
50,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
500,000
0
0
0
-500,000
-50,000,000
2010
Change 2010-40
United States
2010
Change 2010-40
20-County Area
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2010
Change 2010-40
Rest of Georgia
(139 Counties)
Age Population Growth
600
500
In Thousands
400
300
200
100
0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
1990
35-39
40-44
45-49
To 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
50-54
55-59
60-64
To 2040
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Regional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040
Age 0-14
100%
8%
90%
80%
30%
100%
16%
21%
24%
8%
70%
33%
60%
30%
9%
34%
50%
33%
30%
27%
40%
30%
Age 15-24
3%
90%
80%
12%
17%
23%
7%
29%
70%
14%
9%
32%
37%
60%
34%
50%
32%
30%
40%
65%
30%
54%
41%
20%
37%
37%
34%
10%
66%
51%
20%
42%
40%
36%
35%
2030
2040
10%
0%
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1990
2000
2010
2020
100%
1%
2%
4%
90%
17%
3%
4%
Age 25-64
100%
90%
80%
2%
6%
10%
13%
7%
23%
17%
9%
31%
60%
31%
30%
50%
74%
30%
21%
29%
52%
20%
45%
41%
10%
7%
11%
9%
23%
25%
26%
60%
50%
82%
78%
30%
48%
22%
Age 65+
70%
40%
63%
18%
80%
27%
70%
40%
26%
71%
66%
61%
54%
20%
10%
0%
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Healthcare
Hospitals
Source: Deloitte , 2009
Prescription Drugs
Workers Age 65+ (Most Popular Sectors)
Less Concentrated
More Concentrated
Educational Services
Other Services (except Pub Adm)
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Real Estate Rental and Leasing
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Admin/Support. & Waste Mang
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Prof, Sci, and Tech Serv
Health Care and Social Assistance
Accommodation and Food Services
Finance and Insurance
Management
Trans and Ware
Information
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 65+, or which sectors that this age cohort is
more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 65+
are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Education, Other Services
and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
Dimensions of Regional Growth
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
and Change
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Retirement Income in Georgia
http://www.today.com/money/taxesmost-least-friendly-states-retirees8C10990277
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Expenditure “Power” of Older Adults: Healthcare
Source: Deloitte lton “Graying of America” webinar
(1)National Demographic Trends
2014
2030
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Extreme Aging
2000
1800
Thousands
1600
1400
1200
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
1000
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
800
Ages 60-64
600
400
200
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
(2)National Demographic Trends
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
2014-2030
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Thousands
Regional Attractiveness
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Net Ret Migrants
Source: Plan 2040 Transportation Update, 2014
Net Domestic Migrants
Net Int. Migrant
National Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity
Estimated 1992-Projected 2022
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
1992
2002
Hispanic
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012
Asian
White NH
2022
Black
Population Determinants
60
9000
50
8000
40
7000
30
6000
20
5000
10
4000
0
3000
-10
2007
2000
2010
2013
2016
2019
Net Econ migrants - All
2022
2025
2028
Natural Change
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2031
2034
Total Population
2037
2040
Total Population in Millions
In Thousands
Components
Region’s Employment Opportunity
Economic Migrants by Race/ Ethnicity
25
21.228
20
15.746
in Thousands
15
10
8.465
4.459
5
0
2011
2015
2019
White-NonHispanic
2023
Black-NonHispanic
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2027
2031
Other-NonHispanic
2035
Hispanic
2039