Transcript Inflation

PRACTICAL ISSUES IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Presented to
The Seminar Towards Implementation For International
Standards On Economic Statistics Held At
Mauritius
By
James Gatungu
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
6th-9thJuly 2010
INTRODUCTION
 Kenya
is country in the East African region
with a:
Total area of 582.6 thousand sq kilometers
and population of about 40 Million
GDP at US$ 29,917 Million
GDP per Capita 748 US Dollars per person
(2009)
Annual inflation rate 9.2 % in 2009
Exchange rate of KSh 76 per US Dollar in
2009
2
INTRODUCTION

Real GDP grew by
2.6 % in 2009.
CONT’D
GDP Growth Rate
7.0
7
5.9
6.3
6

As
shown,
the
economy is on the
recovery path
5
4
2.6
3
1.6
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
3
INTRODUCTION - CONT’D
Key sectors and their Contribution in 2009:Industry
Per Cent
Agriculture and Forestry
Wholesale &Retail Trade
Transport & Communication
Manufacturing
Education
Financial Intermediation
24.4
10
9.8
9.5
6.0
5.7
Real estate, renting & business services
5.1
4
STATISTICAL INFORMATION
OF THE 21ST CENTURY

AS A
RESOURCE
Statistical information has become an
indispensable factor of production and the
resource of the 21st century. It is part of the
knowledge assets that have become the key
driver of national wealth, drivers of innovation
and learning, as well as that of the country’s
GDP.
5
DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

The diagram below shows a summary of how data is collected
from across the country for use in the compilation of official
statistics
Line ministries, Parastatals, Statutory boards etc
Surveys & Censuses
Administrative records
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Dissemination
Done through website, publications;
economic survey, statistical Abstract
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Establishments and
Households
SYSTEMS OF DATA COLLECTION OF ECONOMIC
STATISTICS
Coverage( e.g Real, fiscal)
 Instruments of Data Collection-Mail administered,
Censuses & Surveys
 Periodicity of Data Collection- Monthly , quarterly,
annual
 Level of detail and data items – Use of ISIC to classify
economic activities, data items include- turnover,
employment, compensation of employees, work in
progress, inventories, production outputs and capital
formation
 Administrative data from Ministries, Government
Departments and Agencies

7
ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN/PLANNED

Harmonization of instruments workshop aimed at:
 Reviewing needs and uses of all variables targeted to be
collected and their relevance
 Reviewing the management and budgeting process
 Methodology
 Advising on questionnaire design and testing and
issues of data collection
 Reviewing the sampling techniques and also creation
and maintenance of business register, while also
reviewing the creation and maintenance of area
frames
 Addressing the data quality frameworks
8
ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN/PLANNED CONT’D
 Adoption of international classifications i.e. ISIC
Rev 4- Custom office piloting their system by using
ISIC Rev 4 and domestication in the surveys (CIP,
Census of Establishment)
 Business register- Undertaken from November
2009 to February 2010- Currently cleaning the
data-Basis for sampling of economic statistics.
 Updating Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Use of
Geometric mean effectively February 2010- Based
on 2005/6 KIHBS data
 12 Broad groups’ COICOP classification as per
ILO 2004 CPI Manual recommendation.
 Compilation of a Harmonized Consumer Price
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Index(HCPI) for COMESA.
ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN/PLANNED CONT’D
 Producer Price Index quarterly roll out
 Revision of Construction Input Index
 Analysis of modules incorporated in the last
Population and Housing Census
 Preparing for revision of GDP base year and
adoption of SNA 2008
10
ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN/PLANNED CONT’D
Census of Industrial Production- Aimed at improving
industrial Statistics- Coverage Mining & Quarrying,
Manufacturing, utilities and Construction activitiesPiloting of instruments done - June 2010, main
activity-July 2010- Followed IRIS 2008
recommendations
 Household Surveys-Rent, KIHBS (CPI, National
Accounts, Agric. Production, Housing, Labour, Energy
etc)
 MSE Survey- with a strong focus on the Informal
Sector
 Manpower- Stock of skill inventory - at the piloting
phase in collaboration with Ministry of Labour
 Agriculture Census preparation proposed in 2011
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 Integrated Labour Force survey

DISSEMINATION

Dissemination done monthly, annually and quarterly
through:



Printed reports like Statistical Bulletins (LEI), quarterly
GDP series, Annual Economic Survey Reports, Statistical
Abstracts (Yearly)
KNBS
website
KNBS Library- customers can buy most of the publications
Data requests handled through phone call, fax and emails
 Keninfo/IMIS statistics databases- . Millennium
Development Goals (MDG) Monitoring & Vision 2030

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CHALLENGES/SOLUTIONS IN PRODUCTION OF
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Inadequate funding in collecting baseline data
 Outdated frame- Revamping of Masterfile
 Low response levels – Publicity through Umbrella
bodies, launching of economic reports & Sharing
publications with data providers
 Respondent fatigue- Harmonization of instruments,
frequency of data collection and use of e-questionnaire
 Mushrooming of new establishments/ Closure/mergers/
outsourcing
 Data quality and completeness- capacity building
across NSS and Establishment of sectoral committee
 Capacity in subject technical areas
13

PRACTICAL ISSUES IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
BUSINESS REGISTER
14
DEFINITION
This is a register of all establishments in the modern
sector
 Details include:
 Name of establishment;
 Postal address;
 Geographic location;
 National Social Security Fund (NSSF)No.;
 Status of ownership;
 Economic activity;
 Response status (1=responded, 0=non-response and
4=estimated);
 Total persons engaged;
 Total persons employed;
 Average earnings.

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USES OF THE CBR
 Used
as a frame for conducting establishment
based surveys at the Bureau e.g.
 MSIP (sample);
 Bussiness Expectation Enquiry (BEE)
(sample);
 Labour Enumeration (census);
 Hotels (sample)
 Adhoc Economic Surveys
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HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
The Central Business Register (CBR) of
establishments in the modern sector has
existed in Kenya from the 1940s
 The Statistics unit was then a division in the
Economic planning department of the then
Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
 The first register used to be updated by use of
index cards
 A program, written in French, existed for
maintaining the register

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HISTORICAL BACKGROUND CONTD
 The
Register was later to be hosted and
maintained at the Government Computer
Services (GCS) mainframe
 This meant sharing of computer time between
the Bureau and other Government departments
(All Government and Teachers Service
Commission salaries were processed by the GCS)
 Updates to the register were coded on sheets
which would then be captured by the data entry
clerks at the GCS
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MAINTENANCE OF THE CBR
New establishments:
 Newly registered establishments were entered into
the CBR from:

The Registrar of Companies, Records from
umbrella bodies such as Association of
Manufacturers, Kenya Dairy Board, Federation of
Kenya Employer, Kenya Medical Association,
Pharmaceutical Board, etc.

Records from the NSSF, KRA, CBK, Commisssion
of Insurance and other parastatals

Newspaper cuttings

Returns from the Annual Employment and
Earnings (LE) survey – for those establishments
not in the CBR
MAINTENANCE OF THE CBR-CONT’D
New establishments:
 A Waiting List (WL) was then created from the lists
from Registrar of Companies, Umbrella Org. and
Parastatals
 Short questionnaires sent by end of March every yr to
firms/establishments to get more details including:
 Main economic activity
 Date of registration
 National Social Security Fund number (used to
match with existing establishments)
 Branches (if any)
 Employment levels
 Details of geographic location
MAINTENANCE OF THE CBR- CONT’D
Updates include:
 Amendments of establishment particulars;
 Entry of new branches;
 Deletions (closed establishments)
 Sources of updates include:
 Returns of the LE survey
 Newspaper cuttings
 Closed businesses from Registrar of Companies
records
CHALLENGES

Over the years, the CBR faced challenges namely:
 Inability to match the entry and exit of businesses
due to the dynamism of the economy
 Reduced staff due to the freeze on employment into
the public
 Inadequate capacity
 Records from National Social Security Fund and
Registrar of Companies included closed est., never
started businesses and deceased employers etc
 Limited finances for conducting waiting list survey
 Tedious process of updating thro GCS – validation of
errors from data capture
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CHALLENGES CONTD.
 Low
response rates to the mail questionnaires
 Reliance on the program written in French
(language barrier)
 Erroneous estimation procedure (by economic
activities)
 Sharing of computer time at the GCS
 Lack of frame for Micro and small enterprises
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SYSTEM UPDATES
 In
the early 1990’s, there were efforts to transfer
the CBR to personal computers
 This finally succeeded and a new system
established in 1996
 This however, inherited gaps from the previous
system
 Efforts were then made to conduct a census of
establishments in order to have a new frame for
sampling
CURRENT STATUS
 Consultants
brought on board (2007) to
design a new system for the CBR ( including
sampling procedures)
 Census
of establishments conducted in
December 2009 – February 2010
 In process of identifying a consultant to
finalize the CBR system to test the system
and grossing of sampling variables
VISION
 An
updated and functional register,
 Implemented and functional application
system with inbuilt statistical estimation
procedures which is able to generate
tables/reports,
 Trained user and operational staff and
training manual
 New system will allow for sampling as
opposed to a census
THE END
THANK YOU FOR
ATTENTION.