Pierre Beckouche `ITAN`

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Transcript Pierre Beckouche `ITAN`

ESPON Open Seminar 2014
“Opportunities and threats for territorial cohesion:
Blue Growth and Urban Poverty”
Workshop 2 – Inclusive development
ITAN project – Lessons learnt from the
European Neighbour Regions (ENRs)
Pierre BECKOUCHE (CIST)
Inclusive development
Neighbourhoods: a attempt to ‘EU compatible’ indicators
The ITAN database sets up:
 basic data on the
Neighbour regions (Similiar
to NUTS 2 or 3)
 harmonised data so as to
compare them to the
Espon territories
 a few composite indicators
compatible with EU
indicators of territorial
development:
 a “local HDI”
 a “international
openness” indicator
(← ports’ international
maritime traffic)
2
Inclusive development
Local HDI: national and regional territorial discrepancies
 National disparities, e.g. Ukraine v.
Russia; Israel v. rest of near East
 Regional disparities, e.g.
 Mediterranean Western Balkans v.
hinterlands
 Western Turkey v. rest of country
 Greater Tunis v. rest of country
 Northern & central Algeria v. South
 Classic littoral / hinterland issue
3
Opportunities & challenges
A rising international openness…
100
Merchandise trade 1960-2012
 All Neighbouring countries have
opened their economy, especially
since the 1990s
% imports + exports / GDP
90
80
70
Morocco
60
Serbia
50
Syrian Arab
Republic
40
Turkey
30
Ukraine
20
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
 In their national territory, the role of
their gateway cities (international
ports, airports, business services) has
been rising
 Deepening trade deficit & lower tariffs
 decline of financial resources for
the State
 not a clear benefit for the major
part of population and territories
of the Neighbour countries
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Opportunities & challenges
A rising international openness… but not always with the EU
% of Europe in the international port traffic
 Baltic region very much
polarised by EU countries
 Ukraine exports more and more
to the CIS and not to EU
 Maghreb’s international
maritime flows are focused on
EU but less and less
 Black Sea and Eastern
Mediterranean less and less
polarised by the EU
 Did EU benefit from the
Neighbour countries’
international openness?
 as for EU’s trade balance: YES
 as for EU’s share in these
countries’ foreign trade: NO 5
Opportunities & challenges
Transports: a broader vision of the region EU + ENRs…
Demographic density &main transport network
Connexity
6
Opportunities & challenges
… & a possible calculation of accessibility thus openness
Accessible population within 3 hours
 In the Neighbourhoods, high
potential markets in the dense
coastal areas (e.g. Egyptian
delta)
 High accessibility in the costal
Maghreb, namely thanks to the
proximity of the European
shore
 The Black Sea area as a quite
high accessibility spot (from
Istanbul region to South
Ukraine)
 Possible to build the
”international openness
territorial indicator”
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Additional evidence needed
Building a composite indicator of “international openness”
 Goal: addressing the crucial issue of international connection (in particular to
EU) of local territories of the Neighbourhoods
 Three components: number of air seats available in international flights (2012),
volume of international maritime flows by port (2011), FDI (average 2008-2012)
 Two methods: non-weighted / and weighted by time-distance accessibility
Foreign direct investment
International air traffic
International port traffic
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Additional evidence needed
International openness (non weighted approach)
Geography of international openness
SNUTS 2 level, around 2010
Non weighted approach:
 highlights the agglomeration
effects: the areas where airports
and ports are located benefit from
these infrastructures as a motor to
participate in the global economy
 Result: impressive position of
North-Western Turkey
 Result: international openness of
Israeli territories
 Result: low international openness
of the Maghreban territories despite
their high potential accessibility to
the European territory
 important avenues for territorial
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development there
Additional evidence needed
International openness (weighted approach, case of ports)
International Port traffic, 2012
Values weighted by the time-distance to Ports
Weighted by time-distance to international
transport facilities (including EU) approach:
 highlights accessibility: territories can
benefit from large infrastructures if they
have a short time-distance access to it
(real networks speeds have been considered as well as border delays)
 Result: except Croatia, the Western
Balkans are poorly connected to
international maritime traffic
 Result: the long distances penalise the
Russian territories
 Result: strong position of the major part
of Turkey except the Eastern
 Result: large relegated territories in
Maghreb except Northern Morocco
 avenues for better logistic connection
ports / hinterlands
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As a conclusion
European’s interest is that the whole map turns into red!
Connexity
11