Transcript ********* 1

The Mobile Communications Sector within the Greek
Economy and Society
1
The Greek economic environment
and the consequences of recession
The general state of recession has directly affected the mobile telephony sector, resulting in a faster
rate of revenues decrease than the rate of GDP decrease
Recession in the Greek economy and the mobile telecoms industry (2008 - 2013)
Real GDP growth
Mobile telecoms revenues
0%
-2%
-0.2%
-1.7%
-4%
-3.1%
-6%
-3.9%
-5.8%
-4.9%
-8%
-7.1%
-6.4%
-7.7%
-10%
-12%
-12.0%
-14%
-14.7%
-16%
-16.5%
-18%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2
Sector Results and Indexes – Mobile Telephony Revenues
The 2013 Sector’s service revenues have decreased to 2086 mil. euro, down by 52% since 2007
Evolution of service revenues
Service revenues
Change from previous year
5,000
30%
4,500
4,000
20%
3,500
10%
0.4%
7.4%
2,500
7.1%
14.8%
in €M
3,000
2,000
0%
-17.1%
-9.3%
-12.6%
-16.2%
-11.2%
-1.2%
1,500
1,000
500
-10%
3,254
3,737
4,002
4,299
4,316
4,263
3,787
3,173
2,775
2,516
2,086
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
• In the past 5 years, annual revenue
decreases in Greece were in the
double digits in contrast to the rest
of Europe were decreases have
been under 5% annually
• Revenues have been negatively
affected by the economic crisis, the
regulatory interventions and over
taxation of mobile com. services
• Approximately half of the service
revenues reduction in 2013 is due
to the reduction of termination
tariffs
-20%
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
3
Sector Results and Indexes – Mobile Telephony Revenues
Τhe Sector’s 2013 EBITDA have decreased to 1056 mil. euro, down by 39% since 2008
Evolution of EBITDA
EBITDA
Change from previous year
2,000
40%
1,800
30%
1,600
20%
10%
1.2%
0.2%
1,000
2.9%
16.4%
• The Sector’s EBITDA margin has
increased during the last few
years as the Operators have
contained expenses
-2.1%
-4.7%
-2.7%
600
-15.4%
0%
800
-20.9%
in €M
1,200
6.8%
1,400
• The tariff decrease due to
competition and regulatory
intervention has contracted the
Sector’s earnings
-10%
400
-20%
200
1,340
1,560
1,606
1,714
1,718
1,739
1,375
1,164
1,133
1,079
1,056
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
EBITDA margin
50%
42.8%
38.4%
40% 37.3%
32.2% 32.0%
35.3% 36.5%
30%
-30%
20%
10%
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
Sector Results and Indexes – Call minutes
In 2013, total call minutes increased slightly (1,8%) but call minutes per user decreased (-3,4%)
• For the first time in 2012 and 2013 the call minutes per user (MOU) showed a decrease due to the negative impact of
the financial crisis on demand. The large increase between 2009 – 2011 was due to the reduction of the number of
users following the obligatory registration of card users.
• Total call minutes increased in 2013, following a decrease in 2012 and 2011, as the number of subscribers increased.
Total voice minutes
Voice minutes
42.2
60%
31.8
15
1.8%
10
5
150
122.2
100
20%
20.2%
16.5% 27.9% 22.3% 17.0%
24.2% 10.6%
2004
2005
2009
10%
0%
-1.9%
-3.1%
2011
2012
-10%
0
-20%
2006
2007
2008
2010
2013
133.7
148.8
152.2
25%
214.8
20%
15%
164.7
10%
8.2%
17.4
145.1
2.3%
14.9
30%
222.5
204.9
200
2.5%
20
40%
22.2
25
239.5
250
50%
27.1
30
30%
8.5%
35
300
9.4%
minutes in billions
40
70%
AMOU per month
5%
0%
50
-3.4%
39.4
41.5
Change from previous year
-7.1%
42.8
€
16.9%
43.6
45
80%
24.4%
50
17.0%
Change from previous year
Evolution of AMOU
2012
2013
0
-5%
-10%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
5
Sector Results and Indexes – Revenue per user (ARPU)
In 2013, revenue per user (ARPU) in Greece decreased by 22% to 10.8€ ; at far lower levels than the
rest of Europe
Evolution of ARPU
Change from previous year
Greece
Europe
€
35
10%
5%
5.2%
30
2.2%
15%
12.3%
40
15
-22.0%
-12.1%
-11.0%
-22.1%
-12.8%
20
-15.8%
0%
-6.7%
25
-5%
-10%
10
-15%
5
-20%
0
-25%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
• While up to 2006 the ARPU in
Greece and Europe were at the
same level, in the following years
the ARPU in Greece decreased
steeply and fell well below the
European
• The lower tariff per call minute and
the lower data penetration in
Greece relatively to Europe have a
negative impact on this index
2013
6
Sector Results and Indexes – 1st Q 2014
In Q1 2014, the rate of decrease in service revenue is -7,3%, which is the least severe of the past two
years.
Mobile telecoms trends Q1 2014 /Q1 2013
25%
20.6%
20%
15%
10%
• The Sector continues to be in a more
profound recession than the whole
economy, as regulatory interventions,
over taxation and competition put
pressure on its revenues.
• Termination tariffs decreased further
as of 1/1/2014, but the decrease is
smaller than that of the previous year.
5%
0%
• Contrary to the Sector’s revenues,
EBITDA show a milder decrease due to
strict control over expenses
-2.0%
-5%
-7.3%
-10%
-9.8%
-15%
Mobile telecoms
revenues
Service revenues
EBITDA
Capex
• The Sector continues to invest in the
economy with own capital of up to €70
mil. per quarter, increasing by 20,6%
y/y
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
7
Sector’s contribution in the Greek
Economy
8
Sector Results and Indexes – Investments
In 2013, the Sector invested 255 mil. Euro in Greece and €7 billion since the beginning of its operation,
thus significantly contributing in the development and technological upgrading of the country
Capex in Greece & Europe
Capex
Change from previous year - Greece
Change from previous year - Europe
700
600
in €M
50%
Additional capex
for licenses
€380M
40%
30%
500
20%
10%
400
0%
300
-10%
-20%
200
-30%
100
575
451
490
482
499
406
363
352
291
255
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-40%
• Investments were funded by own
capital due to the inability of the
banks to finance the Operators
through loans.
• The expected decrease in revenues
and EBITDA in the coming years
will limit the ability of the
Operators to finance the
investments that are necessary for
network upgrading
-50%
0
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
9
The Sector’s contribution to the GDP
• The Sector’s total contribution to the GDP within the last decade is 7% (excluding the 380 mil. of 2011). In a
few months there will be more investment due to the auctioning of new spectrum for the 15 year licenses of
the Mob. Operators
• The Sector’s contribution is quite significant considering that the total growth of the Greek economy was
31.2% in the period 1992 - 2012
Estimated Sector Contribution in GDP (% in total)
Direct contribution to GDP
Multiplier effects
Indirect contribution to GDP through productivity
8%
7%
6.3%
5.6%
6%
5%
2.2% 2.2%
7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 7.1%
3.2% 1.6%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.0% 0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.8%
8%
7%
2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0%
6%
3.3% 3.4%
3.5% 3.5%
2.4%
3%
0%
2.2%
4.5%
4%
1%
6.6% 6.8%
Συνολική συνεισφορά στο ΑΕΠ
5%
4%
2.7% 2.6%
2.5% 2.6%
2.5% 2.4%
2.3%
2.2% 2.1%
2.0% 2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4% 0.4%
1.3%
0.3% 0.9%
1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%
0.6%
1.3% 1.4%
1.0%
0.5% 0.7%
3%
2%
1.6%
1%
0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10
The Sector’s contribution to Public Revenues
• The Sector is one of the most significant partners of the Greek economy
EVOLUTION OF THE SECTOR’S CONTRIBUTION TO PUBLIC REVENUES
Government revenues from the mobile telecoms industry
Licenses
2,500
2,000
in €M
381
1,500
1,000
1,877
1,958
1,907
1,852
1,620
1,495
500
1,242
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Analysis of data from the Operators, EL. STAT., Bank of Greece
Source: Analysis of data from Mobile Telephony Operators
11
The Sector’s contribution to consumer- Price Reduction
NET PRICE PER CALL MINUTE - 2012
Switzerland
Netherlands
0.120
Norway
0.102
Spain
0.100
Belgium
0.100
France
Italy
0.090
0.080
Portugal
0.070
Germany
0.070
Sweden
0.064
Denmark
0.063
UK
0.062
Finland
0.060
Austria
0.060
Greece
0.000
•
0.223
Presently Greece has the
lowest prices of all other
countries in West Europe,
even after considering the
additional burden to the
consumer from the special
mobile telephony tax.
Total price
including indirect
0,058
0.051
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
Source: European Telecoms Matrix Q1 2013, Merrill Lynch & Bank of America
12
The Sector’s contribution to Employment
CREATION OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT BY THE SECTOR
90,000
76,444
80,000
72,087
66,321
70,000
63,293
57,322
60,000
Employment due to
multiplier effects
49,903
50,000
Employment in the
public sector
40,000
30,000
Employment in
suppliers and retailers
20,000
Employment in
providers
10,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Analysis of data from the Operator, EL. STAT.
13
The Sector’s contribution to Entrepreneurship
During its twenty year presence in the Greek market the Mobile Communications Sector has
contributed significantly in the shaping of today’s business scene through the creation of:
• New areas of business activity (eg industrial devices)
 It is estimates that sales of Apple's iPhone 5 accounted for 0.25% - 0.5% of U.S. GDP
• New vertical activities in existing sectors (eg Mobile Advertising, M Health, M Education, Mobility Social Networking)
 Facebook is expected to increase fivefold its revenues from mobile services and mobile
advertising in the next year.
• New markets such as the market of mobile applications, with a turnover of approximately €400
mil. In 2012 ($12 billion worldwide) and with an expected grow of 40% by 2017. The percentage of
exports and investment in research and development surpass 80% and 25% of turnover, respectively.
14
The future of Mobile Communications and
its contribution to growth
15
EE-Mobile Data Volume Growth
EUROPEAN SERVICE REVENUE SPLIT
12.20%
13.60%
12.60%
11.00%
Voice Revenue Growth
15%
Data Revenue Growth
12.10%
12%
10.10%
9.50%
7.40%
3.10%
Q1 10
-5.60%
Q2 10
-5.50%
Q3 10
-4.50%
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
3.70%
Q4 12
-5%
-8.20%
-9.80%
-10.40%
-9.70%
-11.40%
-10.70%
-11.90% -12.30%
Source: GSMA Mobile Economy 2013
16
EE-Mobile Data volume growth
MOBILE DATA VOLUME GROWTH
844,887
2017
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
1,384,072
WESTERN EUROPE
577,265
2016
975,681
365,498
2015
655,201
210,841
2014
276,405
116,012
2013
276,405
66,084
2012
181,397
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
Source: GSMA Mobile Economy 2013
17
International Trends in Mobile Communications
Mobile BB
The Sector lags the average EU penetration in Mobile Broadband
Mobile Broadband (Active Users-January 2013)
Source: Eurostat
18
Current Situation– Greece vs EE
• The Sector lags the EU with respect to data service revenue - 16,2% (Greece) vs 31,6%. (EU)
Data as % of Service Revenues (including SMS)
2012
2004
Series3
50%
46.5%
45%
42.3%
40%
35%
31.4% 31.6%
32.8%
34.7%
33.3% 34.1%
43.9%
45%
40%
36.7%
35%
27.4% 28.1%
30%
23.2%
25%
50%
30%
24.7%
25%
20.2%
20%
20%
16.2%
15%
15%
10%
17.4%
13.5%
13.8% 12.5%
15.8%
18.6%
17.5%
12.7%
11.2%
UK
0%
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Finland
Italy
Norway
Europe
10%
5%
7.0%
Sweden
9.0%
Portugal
France
Spain
Denmark
Greece
0%
Switzerland
5%
15.1% 13.2%
12.7%
12.6% 13.5%
Source: European Telecoms Matrix Q1 2013, Merrill Lynch & Bank of America
19
Current Situation – Greece vs EE
The Sector lags in smart phone penetration and data transfer bundles!
% of Vodafone subscribers with a smartphone
70%
61.3%
56%
60%
50%
40%
Q1 2013
61.7%
60.4%
58%
Q1 2014
53%
43.7%
39.2%
38.9%
35%
31%
30%
30%
24.5%
22%
20%
10%
0%
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Portugal
% of Vodafone subscribers with a data attachment package
Greece
60%
Source: Vodafone Q1 2014
53%
50%
43%45%
42%43%
39%
40%
31%
30%
19%
18%
20%
Q1 2014
28%
27%
24%
Q1 2013
14%
11%
10%
0%
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Greece
20
Growth upon conditions
The Mobile Communications Sector is one of the biggest and steadiest investors in the Greek economy,
yet the hurdles to investment still persist
1. The dysfunction of Public Administration hinders the Mob. Operators from realizing their
investment plans:
•
•
•
•
High risk of loss of investment due to the inability of the Public Administration to license the
Operators’ network investments within the time period that they are implemented.
Significant waste of resources on court adjudications and on fines which result from the
untimely (overly delayed) licensing of the Operators’ network infrastructure.
Considerable delay by the Ministry of Infrastructure, Transport and Networks regarding the
tabling of the draft Law which will improve the licensing procedure for mobile networks.
Significant delay in the issuance of Common Ministerial Decisions which are needed for the
completion of the licensing framework.
2. An unfavorable and inconsistent mobile telephony taxation framework:
•
•
The taxation of corporate mobile use as personal income should be abolished.
The Special Mobile Telephony Tax should be reexamined in order to reduce the telephone bill of
the Greek consumer.
21
Impact of Taxation Policy – Changes in the special mobile
telephony tax, Public revenues and Recession
… the impact of the increase in the special mobile telephony tax along with the economic crisis result in lower
Public revenues and lower usage of mobile telephony
Government revenues from the special duty on mobile telephony
400
375.3
Aug 2009: Increase
in special duty
350
312.1
300
273.7
in €M
250
229.6
Jan 2007: Increase
in special duty
200
•
286.0
250.5
241.7
150
100
65.5
76.6
86.5
95.9
2004
2005
107.2
In 2013 Public
revenues
decreased to levels
lower than those
of the period prior
to the last increase
in the special
mobile telephony
tax (2009).
50
0
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
23