Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - South Australian Tourism Industry Council

FORECASTING
AUSTRALIA’S
TOURISM
FUTURE
SATIC Tourism Conference
By Dr Leo Jago
Chief Economist & GM
29 May 2014
Presentation Overview
 Tourism – the state of play
 Tourism – forecasts
 Megatrends (CSIRO Futures)
 Summary of key tourism drivers

Global Tourism Statistics
(UNWTO)
International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billion
• Annual growth of 4% expected to continue
• Predicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billion
 Tourism export earnings in 2012 : USD
1.3 trillion
 Accounted for 9% global GDP in 2012
 Generated 9% of total employment in 2012
Tourism’s Economic
Significance (2012-13)
Direct tourism GDP
Tourism exports
Direct employment
Businesses
Australia
South Australia
$24.2 billion
$2.2 billion
(2.8% of total GDP)
(2.3% of total GDP)
$27 billion
$1.1 billion
(8.9% of total exports)
(4% of total exports)
543,600 jobs
31,000 jobs
(4.7% of total employment)
(3.8% of total employment)
280,083
Australian Tourism Figures
(YE Dec 2013)
Visitors
(millions)
Nights
(millions)
International
5.9
216.7
$28.9
Domestic Overnight
75.8
282.7
$51.5
Domestic Day Trip
164.3
-
$18.3
Total
Spend
(billions)
$98.7
Inbound Versus Outbound
Visitors
14,000
Inbound and outbound tourism
visitors ('000)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Inbound visitor arrivals
2,000
Outbound departures
0
2000-01
2005-06
2010-11
2015-16
2020-21
South Australian Tourism Figures
(YE Dec 2013)
Visitors
(millions)
Nights
(millions)
Spend
(billions)
International
0.4
10.5
0.7*
Domestic Overnight
5.2
19.5
$3.2
Domestic Day Trip
11.0
-
$1.2
Total
* Excludes pre-paid expenses
$5.1*
Visitor Nights in South Australia
12,000
11,000
INTRASTATE
Visitor nights ('000)
10,000
INTERNATIONAL
9,000
INTERSTATE
8,000
7,000
6,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Visitor Spend in South Australia
4,000
3,500
DOMESTIC
O'NIGHT
Visitor spend ($m)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
DOMESTIC
DAY
1,000
500
INTERNATIONAL
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
International Arrivals to Australia in 2013
Indonesia
India
Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Malaysia
Japan
Singapore
USA
UK
China
New Zealand
Visitors ('000)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Source of International Visitors
to South Australia
80
Visitor numbers (‘000)
70
UK
60
50
40
NZ
30
USA
GERMANY
20
CHINA
10
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source of International Visitors
Nationality
United Kingdom
New Zealand
USA
Germany
China
Malaysia
France
Canada
Italy
South Australia
%
17.2*
10.5
8.6
7.8*
7.2
4.2
4.1*
3.5
3.1
Australia
%
10.5
18.4*
8.0
2.8
11.3*
4.2
1.8
2.1
1.1
International Visitor Activities
Visit national parks / State…
61.2
41.0
Go to markets
56.3
44.1
Pubs, clubs, discos etc
49.6
36.4
Visit botanical or other public…
49.0
35.1
Visit museums or art galleries
45.6
28.9
Visit wildlife parks / zoos /…
45.0
33.3
Visit history / heritage…
39.5
27.2
Bushwalking / rainforest walks
37.0
South Australia
Australia
21.6
Visit wineries
33.0
11.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
International Visitor Dispersal
Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQ
YE December 2013
Nationality
Visitors
%
Nights
%
China
9
6
Other Asia
17
13
North America
36
25
Europe
48
25
Total
27
18
Source of Interstate Visitors to
South Australia
Origin
%
Victoria
42.6
NSW
26.6
Queensland
13.2
Western Australia
8.3
Northern Territory
5.0
ACT
2.2
Tasmania
1.9
Purpose of Visiting South
Australia (All Visitors)
9,000
8,000
HOLIDAY
Visitor numbers ('000)
7,000
6,000
5,000
VFR
4,000
3,000
BUSINESS
OTHER
2,000
1,000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Increasing Visitors to South
Australia from UK, US & Europe
 53% could name a location in SA unprompted
• Adelaide 49%
• Kangaroo Island 10%
• Barossa 5%
 Respondents believed SA:
• Has unique attractions
• Just seems too far away
• Is vast and empty compared to other places in
Australia
Main Reason for not Selecting
South Australia in Planning the Trip
 Not enough time in trip to include
 Too expensive
 Other destinations more appealing
 Plan to visit in the future
China Forecast to Remain
Australia’s Top Expenditure Market
Arrivals (million)
1.6
Expenditure ($billion)
2013
1.4
Forecast
2022-23
1.2
9.0
2013
8.0
Forecast
2022-23
7.0
6.0
1.0
5.0
0.8
4.0
0.6
3.0
0.4
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.0
0.0
New
Zealand
China
United
Kingdom
United
States
Singapore
China
United
Kingdom
United
States
New
Zealand
Korea
Key Influences on Chinese
Visitor Satisfaction
 Attractions, especially nature based
 Value for money
 Good shopping
 Good quality food, Western and Chinese
 Chinese language services
Source: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014
South Australia has what China
Wants

World class beauty and natural environments

A safe and secure destination

Good food, wine, local cuisine and produce

Friendly and open citizens, hospitality

Native or cultural heritage

Kangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watching
Source: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 2013
Tools to Help You
www.tra.gov.au
Asia Focus
Mega-trends Impacting Tourism
Over Next 20 Years
(Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)
1. The Orient Express
 The generation of wealth is moving east
1. The Orient Express
 Over 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of
poverty into the middle income bracket in
coming decades
 China will dominate this trend
•
•
Chinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites
rather than just natural scenery
Like to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or
watch sport during holiday
 Countries throughout Asia are investing heavily
in tourism so there is much competition
2. A Natural Advantage
 Impact of climate change
 Australia has world class natural assets
 Nature is still Australia’s drawcard with
tourists
 Increased urbanisation is likely to
increase the desire for nature
3. Great Expectations

Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy

As incomes rise, people move from consuming
materials to consuming experiences

An increasing desire for authentic experiences

The tourist doesn’t want to be a tourist

VFR is important especially for domestic tourism
& forecast to rise
4. Bolts From The Blue
 Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events
 Climate change brings more extreme weather
events
 Increased human mobility is elevating the risk
of infectious diseases
4. Bolts From The Blue
 Increased uncertainty increases the popularity
of domestic holidays
 Australia is a relatively safe tourist destination
 Australia’s safety ranked more highly by past
visitors
5. Digital Whispers
 Internet usage continues to grow
 Increased internet usage on smartphones
 IT will continue to change how tourists
access and use information
 The changing role of the travel agent
 Greater information flows between
travellers
5. Digital Whispers

The popularity of user-generated content in travel

More bookings are made online

Virtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences
yet

A virtual experience may increase the intention to visit

Despite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face
interaction

For some there is too much IT and people want to
disconnect
6. On The Move
 Trade leads to travel
 Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025
 Strong trading ties with Asia
 Growth in multi-purpose trips
 Education exports (22% of students in 2009)
 Rise of medical tourism
6. On The Move
 Aviation access is critical
 Air ticket prices also important
 The world’s citizens are becoming more
mobile
 High speed rail more popular
 Cruise ships on the rise
7. The Lucky Country

Australia rode the GFC better than most

Overseas holidays getting cheaper

Outbound tourism for Australians is on the rise

Australian tourism seen to be high cost globally

Lack of investment in domestic tourism product could
hold back local potential

Ageing population means Baby Boomers form a key
market
Defining Characteristics Arising
From Merging of the Megatrends





Safe and secure
Clean
Green
Friendly and authentic
Value
South Australia performs well
on most of these dimensions
Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers

Safety and security

Value for money

Picturesque natural environments

Key attractions
•
•
•

Natural landmarks
Heritage sites
Historical landmarks
Food and wine experiences
•
Especially in natural settings
Domestic Tourism Issues

Outbound tourism growing strongly
•
•
•
Aspirational
Broader product range
Better value

Lack of awareness of Australian product

Domestic travel helps unite families
•
Offering must suit all family members

VFR continues to grow

Weekend breaks continue to be popular
•
Challenge is to move them outside peak periods
South Australia




Great natural environments
Wide range of natural and heritage attractions
Excellent food and wine
Good driving location
BUT
 Low levels of awareness
 Limited access
Go to
www.tra.gov.au
for accessible research for industry and
government.