Transcript CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance of

Chapter
21
Open-Economy
Macroeconomics:
The Balance of Payments
and Exchange Rates
Prepared by:
Fernando & Yvonn Quijano
© 2007 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics 8e by Case and Fair
CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Open-Economy
Macroeconomics:
The Balance of Payments
and Exchange Rates
21
Chapter Outline
The Balance of Payments
The Current Account
The Capital Account
The United States as a Debtor Nation
Equilibrium Output (Income)
in an Open Economy
The International Sector
and Planned Aggregate Expenditure
Imports and Exports
and the Trade Feedback Effect
Import and Export Prices
and the Price Feedback Effect
The Open Economy
with Flexible Exchange Rates
The Market for Foreign Exchange
Factors That Affect Exchange Rates
The Effects of Exchange Rates
on the Economy
An Interdependent World Economy
Appendix: World Monetary
Systems Since 1900
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
The study of exchange rates is very important
because:
a. Exchange rates determine the course of
monetary policy.
b. Exchange rates strongly influence interest rates.
c. Exchange rates are a factor in determining the
flow of international trade.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
The study of exchange rates is very important
because:
a. Exchange rates determine the course of
monetary policy.
b. Exchange rates strongly influence interest rates.
c. Exchange rates are a factor in determining the
flow of international trade.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Open-Economy Macroeconomics:
The Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates
When people in different countries buy from and sell to each other, an exchange of
currencies must also take place.
exchange rate The price of one
country’s currency in terms of
another country’s currency; the
ratio at which two currencies are
traded for each other.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
foreign exchange All currencies
other than the domestic currency
of a given country.
balance of payments The
record of a country’s
transactions in goods, services,
and assets with the rest of the
world; also the record of a
country’s sources (supply) and
uses (demand) of foreign
exchange.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Colombian purchases of real estate in Miami:
a. Increase the U.S. supply of foreign exchange.
b. Increase the U.S. demand for foreign exchange.
c. Decrease the U.S. supply of foreign exchange.
d. Decrease the U.S. demand for foreign exchange.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Colombian purchases of real estate in Miami:
a. Increase the U.S. supply of foreign exchange.
b. Increase the U.S. demand for foreign exchange.
c. Decrease the U.S. supply of foreign exchange.
d. Decrease the U.S. demand for foreign exchange.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
balance of trade A country’s
exports of goods and services
minus its imports of goods and
services.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
TABLE 21.1 United States Balance of Payments, 2004
CURRENT ACCOUNT
Goods exports
Goods imports
(1) Net export of goods
Export of services
Import of services
(2) Net export of services
Income received on investments
Income payments on investments
807.6
– 1,473.1
– 665.5
339.6
– 291.2
48.4
369.0
– 344.9
(3) Net investment income
(4) Net transfer payments
(5) Balance on current account (1 + 2 + 3 + 4)
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
(6) Change in private U.S. assets abroad (increase is –)
(7) Change in foreign private assets in the United States
(8) Change in U.S. government assets abroad (increase is –)
– 821.8
1077.9
4.1
(9) Change in foreign government assets in the United States
355.3
(10) Balance on capital account (6 + 7 + 8 + 9)
(11) Net capital account transactions
(11) Statistical discrepancy
(12) Balance of payments (5 + 10 + 11)
© 2007 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics 8e by Case and Fair
24.1
– 72.9
– 665.9
615.5
– 1.5
51.9
0
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
When a nation has spent more on foreign goods and
services than it has earned through the sales of
its goods and services to the rest of the world, its
net wealth position vis-à-vis the rest of the world
must have:
a. Increased.
b. Decreased.
c. Remained the same.
d. Either increased or decreased, depending on
changes in the capital account.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
When a nation has spent more on foreign goods and
services than it has earned through the sales of
its goods and services to the rest of the world, its
net wealth position vis-à-vis the rest of the world
must have:
a. Increased.
b. Decreased.
c. Remained the same.
d. Either increased or decreased, depending on
changes in the capital account.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
trade deficit Occurs when a
country’s exports of goods and
services are less than its imports
of goods and services in a given
period.
balance on current account
Net exports of goods, plus net
exports of services, plus net
investment income, plus net
transfer payments.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT
balance on capital account In
the United States, the sum of the
following (measured in a given
period): the change in private U.S.
assets abroad, the change in
foreign private assets in the
United States, the change in U.S.
government assets abroad, and
the change in foreign government
assets in the United States.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
If the balance on capital account is positive, the net
wealth position of a country has:
a. Increased.
b. Decreased.
c. Remained the same.
d. Either increased or decreased, depending on
other changes in the balance of payments
account.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
If the balance on capital account is positive, the net
wealth position of a country has:
a. Increased.
b. Decreased.
c. Remained the same.
d. Either increased or decreased, depending on
other changes in the balance of payments
account.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
THE UNITED STATES AS A DEBTOR NATION
Prior to the mid-1970s, the United States had
generally run current account surpluses. This
began to turn around in the mid-1970s, and by
the mid-1980s, the United States was running
large current account deficits. In other words,
the United States changed from a creditor
nation to a debtor nation.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
THE INTERNATIONAL SECTOR AND PLANNED
AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE
Planned aggregate expenditure in an open economy:
AE  C + I + G + EX - IM
net exports of goods and
services (EX - IM) The
difference between a country’s
total exports and total imports.
Determining the Level of Imports
marginal propensity to
import (MPM) The change in
imports caused by a $1
change in income.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
FIGURE 21.1 Determining Equilibrium Output in an Open Economy
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
The Open-Economy Multiplier
open-economy multiplier

1
1  ( MPC  MPM )
The effect of a sustained increase in government spending (or investment) on income—
that is, the multiplier—is smaller in an open economy than in a closed economy. The
reason: When government spending (or investment) increases and income and
consumption rise, some of the extra consumption spending that results is on foreign
products and not on domestically produced goods and services.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
The open-economy multiplier is:
a. Larger than the closed-economy multiplier.
b. Smaller than the closed-economy multiplier.
c. The same as the closed-economy multiplier.
d. Zero because imports and exports cancel each
other out.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
The open-economy multiplier is:
a. Larger than the closed-economy multiplier.
b. Smaller than the closed-economy multiplier.
c. The same as the closed-economy multiplier.
d. Zero because imports and exports cancel each
other out.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS AND THE TRADE
FEEDBACK EFFECT
The Determinants of Imports
The same factors that affect households’ consumption behavior
and firms’ investment behavior are likely to affect the demand for
imports.
The Determinants of Exports
The demand for U.S. exports depends on economic activity in
the rest of the world—rest-of-the-world real wages, wealth,
nonlabor income, interest rates, and so on—as well as on the
prices of U.S. goods relative to the price of rest-of-the-world
goods. If foreign output increases,
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
The Trade Feedback Effect
trade feedback effect The tendency
for an increase in the economic
activity of one country to lead to a
worldwide increase in economic
activity, which then feeds back to that
country.
An increase in U.S. imports increases other countries’ exports, which stimulates those
countries’ economies and increases their imports, which increases U.S. exports, which
stimulates the U.S. economy and increases its imports, and so on. This is the trade
feedback effect. In other words, an increase in U.S. economic activity leads to a
worldwide increase in economic activity, which then “feeds back” to the United States.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
EQUILIBRIUM OUTPUT (INCOME)
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
Export prices of other countries affect U.S. import prices.
The general rate of inflation abroad is likely to affect U.S. import prices. If the inflation
rate abroad is high, U.S. import prices are likely to rise.
The Price Feedback Effect
price feedback effect The process by
which a domestic price increase in one
country can “feed back” on itself through
export and import prices. An increase in
the price level in one country can drive
up prices in other countries. This in turn
further increases the price level in the
first country.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
If the inflation rate in Colombia is high, the prices of
Colombian exports will ___________, and U.S
import prices are likely to _________.
a. increase; rise
b. increase; fall
c. decrease; rise
d. decrease; fall
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
If the inflation rate in Colombia is high, the prices of
Colombian exports will ___________, and U.S
import prices are likely to _________.
a. increase; rise
b. increase; fall
c. decrease; rise
d. decrease; fall
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
THE MARKET FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE
TABLE 21.2 Some Private Buyers and Sellers in International Exchange
Markets: United States and Great Britain
THE DEMAND FOR POUNDS (SUPPLY OF DOLLARS)
1.Firms, households, or governments that import British goods into the United States or wish to buy
British-made goods and services
2.U.S. citizens traveling in Great Britain
3.Holders of dollars who want to buy British stocks, bonds, or other financial instruments
4.U.S. companies that want to invest in Great Britain
5.Speculators who anticipate a decline in the value of the dollar relative to the pound
THE SUPPLY OF POUNDS (DEMAND FOR DOLLARS)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Firms, households, or governments that import U.S. goods into Great Britain or wish to buy U.S.made goods and services
British citizens traveling in the United States
Holders of pounds who want to buy stocks, bonds, or other financial instruments in the United
States
British companies that want to invest in the United States
Speculators who anticipate a rise in the value of the dollar relative to the pound
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
A drop in the value of the dollar against the
Colombian peso will:
a. Make U.S. goods more attractive to Colombians.
b. Make U.S. goods more attractive to U.S.
residents.
c. Dollars buy fewer pesos and pesos buy more
dollars.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
A drop in the value of the dollar against the
Colombian peso will:
a. Make U.S. goods more attractive to Colombians.
b. Make U.S. goods more attractive to U.S.
residents.
c. Dollars buy fewer pesos and pesos buy more
dollars.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
floating, or market-determined, exchange rates
Exchange rates that are determined by the
unregulated forces of supply and demand.
FIGURE 21.2 The Demand for Pounds
in the Foreign Exchange Market
FIGURE 21.3 The Supply of Pounds in
the Foreign Exchange Market
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
In the foreign exchange market for Colombian pesos, who
constitutes supply and demand?
a. Supply is the central bank of Colombia (or Banco de
la República), and demand is any foreigner who
wants to buy Colombian goods, services and assets.
b. Supply is comprised of those who hold pesos and
would like to acquire foreign currency, and demand is
comprised of those who hold foreign exchange and
would like to acquire pesos.
c. Supply is comprised of those who have Colombian
goods, and demand is comprised of those who wish
to buy Colombian goods.
d. Supply is the central bank of Colombia (or Banco de
la República), and demand is comprised of
Colombians wishing to buy foreign currency.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
In the foreign exchange market for Colombian pesos, who
constitutes supply and demand?
a. Supply is the central bank of Colombia (or Banco de
la República), and demand is any foreigner who
wants to buy Colombian goods, services and assets.
b. Supply is comprised of those who hold pesos and
would like to acquire foreign currency, and
demand is comprised of those who hold foreign
exchange and would like to acquire pesos.
c. Supply is comprised of those who have Colombian
goods, and demand is comprised of those who wish
to buy Colombian goods.
d. Supply is the central bank of Colombia (or Banco de
la República), and demand is comprised of
Colombians wishing to buy foreign currency.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
The Equilibrium Exchange Rate
The equilibrium exchange rate occurs at the point at which the quantity demanded of
a foreign currency equals the quantity of that currency supplied.
appreciation of a
currency The rise in value
of one currency relative to
another.
FIGURE 21.4 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate
depreciation of a
currency The fall in value
of one currency relative to
another.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Which of the following groups have an interest in
participating in foreign exchange markets?
a. Firms, households, or governments.
b. Travelers.
c. Investors and speculators.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Which of the following groups have an interest in
participating in foreign exchange markets?
a. Firms, households, or governments.
b. Travelers.
c. Investors and speculators.
d. All of the above.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
FACTORS THAT AFFECT EXCHANGE RATES
Purchasing Power Parity: The Law of One Price
law of one price If the costs of
transportation are small, the price of the
same good in different countries should be
roughly the same.
purchasing-power-parity theory A
theory of international exchange holding
that exchange rates are set so that the
price of similar goods in different countries
is the same.
A high rate of inflation in one country relative to another puts pressure on the exchange
rate between the two countries, and there is a general tendency for the currencies of
relatively high-inflation countries to depreciate.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
According to the purchasing-power-parity theory, a 10%
increase in the rate of inflation in Colombia would
lead to:
a. 10% appreciation of the dollar against the peso.
b. 10% depreciation of the dollar against the peso.
c. No change in the value of the dollar relative to the
peso.
d. A decrease in prices in the United States by 10%.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
According to the purchasing-power-parity theory, a 10%
increase in the rate of inflation in Colombia would
lead to:
a. 10% appreciation of the dollar against the peso.
b. 10% depreciation of the dollar against the peso.
c. No change in the value of the dollar relative to the
peso.
d. A decrease in prices in the United States by 10%.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
FIGURE 21.5 Exchange Rates Respond
to Changes in Relative Prices
FIGURE 21.6 Exchange Rates Respond
to Changes in Relative Interest Rates
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
When domestic prices in the United States are rising, in
the foreign exchange market for dollars:
a. The supply of dollars will rise, and the demand for
dollars will fall.
b. The supply of dollars will fall and the demand for
dollars will rise.
c. Both the supply and the demand for dollars will fall.
d. Both the supply and the demand for dollars will rise.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
When domestic prices in the United States are rising, in
the foreign exchange market for dollars:
a. The supply of dollars will rise, and the demand for
dollars will fall.
b. The supply of dollars will fall and the demand for
dollars will rise.
c. Both the supply and the demand for dollars will fall.
d. Both the supply and the demand for dollars will rise.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATES ON THE
ECONOMY
The level of imports and exports depends on exchange rates as
well as on income and other factors. When events cause
exchange rates to adjust, the levels of imports and exports will
change. Changes in exports and imports can in turn affect the
level of real GDP and the price level. Further, exchange rates
themselves also adjust to changes in the economy.
Exchange Rate Effects on Imports, Exports, and
Real GDP
A depreciation of a country’s currency is likely to increase its GDP.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
THE OPEN ECONOMY WITH FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES
Exchange Rates and Prices The depreciation of a
country’s currency tends to increase its price level.
Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates A
cheaper dollar is a good thing if the goal of the monetary
expansion is to stimulate the domestic economy.
Fiscal Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates The
openness of the economy and flexible exchange rates do not
always work to the advantage of policy makers.
Monetary Policy with Fixed Exchange Rates
There is no role monetary policy can play if a country has a
fixed exchange rate.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
An open economy with flexible exchange rates works to
the advantage of:
a. Fiscal policy used to stimulate the economy.
b. Monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
c. Both fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the
economy.
d. Neither fiscal nor monetary policies to stimulate the
economy.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
An open economy with flexible exchange rates works to
the advantage of:
a. Fiscal policy used to stimulate the economy.
b. Monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
c. Both fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the
economy.
d. Neither fiscal nor monetary policies to stimulate the
economy.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD ECONOMY
The increasing interdependence of countries in the
world economy has made the problems facing policy
makers more difficult.
We used to be able to think of the United States as a
relatively self-sufficient region.
Forty years ago, economic events outside U.S. borders
had relatively little effect on its economy. This situation
is no longer true. The events of the past four decades
have taught us that the performance of the U.S.
economy is heavily dependent on events outside U.S.
borders.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
What is the impact of the exchange rate on the economy
following a tax cut designed to stimulate the economy,
all else the same?
a. The exchange rate moves in such a way as to
enhance the effectiveness of the tax cut.
b. The exchange rate moves in such a way as to
diminish the effectiveness of the tax cut.
c. The exchange rate contributes to stimulating the
economy, only as long as the Fed does not
accommodate increases in money demand.
d. There is no relationship between tax cuts and
exchange rates; therefore, the foreign exchange
market has no impact on the economy following a tax
cut.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
What is the impact of the exchange rate on the economy
following a tax cut designed to stimulate the economy,
all else the same?
a. The exchange rate moves in such a way as to
enhance the effectiveness of the tax cut.
b. The exchange rate moves in such a way as to
diminish the effectiveness of the tax cut.
c. The exchange rate contributes to stimulating the
economy, only as long as the Fed does not
accommodate increases in money demand.
d. There is no relationship between tax cuts and
exchange rates; therefore, the foreign exchange
market has no impact on the economy following a tax
cut.
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
REVIEW TERMS AND CONCEPTS
appreciation of a currency
balance of payments
balance of trade
balance on capital account
balance on current account
depreciation of a currency
exchange rate
floating, or marketdetermined, exchange rates
foreign exchange
J-curve effect
law of one price
marginal propensity to import (MPM)
net exports of goods and services
(EX - IM)
price feedback effect
purchasing-power-parity theory
trade deficit
trade feedback effect
Planned aggregate expenditure in
an open economy:
AE  C + I + G + EX - IM
Open-economy multiplier:

1
1  ( MPC  MPM )
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Appendix
WORLD MONETARY SYSTEMS SINCE 1900
THE GOLD STANDARD
PROBLEMS WITH THE GOLD
STANDARD
FIXED EXCHANGE RATES AND
THE BRETTON WOODS
SYSTEM
“PURE” FIXED EXCHANGE
RATES
PROBLEMS WITH THE
BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM
© 2007 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics 8e by Case and Fair
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CHAPTER 21: Open-Economy Macroeconomics: The Balance
of Payments and Exchange Rates
Appendix
Bretton Woods The site in New
Hampshire where a group of experts
from 44 countries met in 1944 and
agreed to an international monetary
system of fixed exchange rates.
© 2007 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics 8e by Case and Fair
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