Transcript Though the finance industry absorbs many with Masters

CFA Romania
Macroeconomic
Confidence Index
May 2012
CFA Institute
CFA Institute is a global, not-for-profit
organization comprising the world’s largest
association of investment professionals
 With over 100,000 members, and regional
societies around the world, CFA Institute is
dedicated to developing and promoting the
highest educational, ethical, and
professional standards in the investment
industry

“Though the finance industry
absorbs many with Masters
degrees in Business
Administration and finance
degrees, the Chartered
Financial Analyst
qualification, pursued parttime by those already hired,
has become the industry’s
benchmark.”
Financial Times, 2009
“Whereas there are tens
of thousands of finance
degrees available around
the world, ranging from
the excellent to the
worthless, there is only
one CFA… explosive
growth has made it, in
effect, global currency.”
-The Economist, 2005
Sentiment indexes

Used to measure consumers, investors or
managers’ expectations regarding future
economic activity

Types:
 Consumer
confidence
 Economic activity
 Investor sentiment
Consumer confidence index

Designed to measure consumer confidence
defined as the degree of optimism on the
state of the economy that consumers are
expressing through their activities of
savings and spending
Consumer Confidence Index issued by the
Conference Board (US)
 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index (US)

Economic activity index

Designed to measure managers’
expectations regarding future economic
activity in industry and services
Institute for Supply Management –
Purchasing Managers’ Index (US)
 ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
(Germany, EU)

Investors sentiment indicator

Designed to measure institutional
investors’ and financial analysts’
expectations on future economic activity
Sentix Market Sentiment (global)
 Swiss ZEW Investor Sentiment Index

CFA Romania Macroeconomic
Confidence Index
Aim

To evaluate financial analysts expectation
regarding economic activity in Romania for
one year horizon
Objectives
To create a new tool for assessing
economic expectations in Romania
 To become a benchmark in the market
regarding the expectations on Romanian
economic activity
 To create a platform for exchange of ideas
and opinions and for educating the public
on economic and financial issues

Target
CFA Romania members
 Level II and Level III CFA exam
candidates


Aprox. 350 participants
Timing

Survey of expectations in the last 5
working days of each month

Release in first week of next month
Presentation
Current conditions
 Expectations
 Confidence indicator (summarizing the two
above-mentioned indicators)


Values between 0 and 100 (100 - highest
confidence, 0 – lowest confidence, 50
neutral)
Macroeconomic Confidence Index
Qualitative questions
(increase/decrease/remain the same) for:
 Current conditions

 Business
conditions
 Labor market

Expectations (one year horizon) for
 Business
conditions
 Labor market
 Economy-wide personal income
 Personal wealth
Financial markets expectations
Inflation rate
 Interest rates
 EUR/RON exchange rate
 Stock market index
 Global macroeconomic conditions
 Oil price

Values
Thank you !