Transcript lec5-03
Global Infrastructure Stocks: World Bank ‘Canning’ Paper H. Scott Matthews January 29, 2003 Recap of Last Lecture Everything we build eventually becomes obsolete Due to many factors (tech, society, etc) Thus, we need to plan for that Difference Service between physical/service life life defined by expected obsol. Before the Paper.. Recent data from the World Bank… Significant infrastructure differences Indicator Daily newspapers (per 1,000 people) (1991/ 1997 ) International outgoing telephone traffic (min per subscriber) Mobile phones (per 1,000 people) Radios (per 1,000 people) (1998/ 1998 ) Avg, cost of local phone call (US$ per 3 mins.) Telephone mainlines (per 1,000 people) Telephone mainlines, waiting time (years) Television sets (per 1,000 people) Source: World Development Indicators Database Developing Developed (High Income) 49.3 284.7 99.8 230.5 45.9 257.7 0.1 80.9 2.0 183.2 533.9 1,267.3 0.1 596.8 0.0 669.1 Expectations So we don’t lose sight of global relevance of these issues.. Data on previous slide implies WHAT? Expect less economic output Lower educational levels Cause or effect? Canning Paper “A Database of World Infrastructure Stocks, 1950–95”, David Canning, World Bank Paper #1929, June 1998 Main stock dataset available on web 152 countries, generally 45 yrs Some countries no data until recently What is/is not included in data? Measures in Dataset Roads, Paved Roads (km) Railway lines (km) Number of telephones Number of telephone main lines KW electricity generating capacity Some infrastructure quality measures Condition of roads, Percent dropped calls, electricity system losses What could this data be used for? Sample Data - Electricity US capacity 80 TW 1950 700 World TW 1995 (~10x increase) capacity 200 -> 2500 So what? Do these numbers tell us anything important? What kind of values would we want instead? Canning Paper Econometric study of infrastructure stocks as related to: Economic growth Population Change Investment ‘Full report’ available on web: http://www.worldbank.org/html/dec/Publications/ Workpapers/WPS1900series/wps1929/wps1929abstract.html (bottom of this page) Conclusions Non-transportation infrastructure stocks tend to increase 1:1 with population Geographic factors appear to affect provision of non-trans in poor countries But not in rich countries Transport. Infras. Increases less than 1:1 with population Increase more than 1:1 with per-cap GDP Increases with income only after threshold reached Do these conclusions surprise us?