Transcript Udall-Petri Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act of

Udall-Petri
Keep America Competitive
Global Warming Policy Act of
2006
(HR 5049)
Bill Newman
Climate Policy Center
October 16, 2006
The Legislative Frame
• Byrd-Hagel Resolution, July 1997, 95-0
– “United States should not be a signatory to any protocol…that
would mandate new commitments to reduce greenhouse gases
unless the protocol mandates new specific commitments from
the developing countries” and
– Must not result in serious harm to the US economy
• Bingaman Resolution, June 2005, 53-44
– Mandatory GHG emissions policy to slow, stop and reduce GHG
emissions
– Must not substantially harm US economy
– Must encourage comparable action by other nations that are
major trading partners and key contributors to global emission
Udall-Petri
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Economywide
Upstream
All GHGs
Prospective cap
Safety valve ($25@mtC/$6.82@mtCO2)
Escalation of the safety valve linked to
comparable actions by the 5 largest developing
country GHG emitters
• Unlimited domestic sequestration
• Public Purpose Allocation
What EIA says about Udall-Petri
• Reduce GHG emissions by 11% by 2030
• Early reductions will come from non-CO2 GHGs and by 2030, 68%
of the CO2 energy-related emissions reductions will come from the
electricity sector
• Safety value will be triggered between 2016-2018
• In 2030, it will raise between $120b and $145b
• It will raise between $1.3t and $1.5t between its effective date and
2030
• It will reduce cumulative GDP by .11% between now and 2030
• Were there no safety valve, average annual GDP loss would double
$43b or .24% GDP
• Electricity prices will increase by 6% from BAU but coal demand will
decrease by 46% from the AEO 2006 reference case
• Nuclear capacity will increase by 19-25 gigawatts from 6 gigawatts
increase from the AEO 2006 reference case
Public Purpose Allocation-Hybrid
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R & D/ARPA-E: 25%
Developing Countries/State Department:10%
Auction/US Treasury:25%
Adversely Impacted/EPA:40%
– Workers and Communities:15%
– Industries: Oil and Gas producers:5%, Coal Producers:5%,
Fossil-fuel Generators: 5%, Energy Intensive Industries and
Non-CO2 GHG producers:5%
– LIHEAP Recipients: 5%
• Different from CAA of 1990 and other pending proposals