Inflation - about Mr. Long

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Transcript Inflation - about Mr. Long

AP MACROECONOMICS
Inflation
Measuring the Cost of Living

Inflation (π)
 occurs

when the economy’s overall price level is rising.
Inflation Rate (π%)
 the
percentage change in the price level from one time
period to another.
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX



The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the
overall cost of the goods and services bought by a
typical consumer.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each
month.
It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living
over time.
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend
more dollars to maintain the same standard of
living.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated



Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.
 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services
the typical consumer buys.
What goods and services does the CPI cover?
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or
W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major
groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:









FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital
services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and
accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral
expenses).
The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of
those goods and services.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods
and services in the basket for each point in time.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to
calculate the cost of the basket of goods and
services at different times.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index:
 Designate
one year as the base year, making it the
benchmark against which other years are compared.
 Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket
in one year by the price in the base year and
multiplying by 100.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Compute the inflation rate: (π%)
The inflation rate is the percentage change in the
price index from the preceding period.
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

The Inflation Rate (π%)
 The
inflation rate is calculated as follows:
CPI in Year 2 - CPI in Year 1
Inflation Rate in Year 2 =
 100
CPI in Year 1
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate:
An Example
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
Copyright©2004 South-Western
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation
Rate: Another Example
Base Year is 2002.
 Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200.
 The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236.
 CPI = ($1,236/$1,200)  100 = 103.
 Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price
Index

The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:
Nominal GDP
GDP deflator =
 100
Real GDP
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price
Index


Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP
deflator and the consumer price index to gauge
how quickly prices are rising.
There are two important differences between the
indexes that can cause them to diverge.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price
Index


The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods
and services produced domestically, whereas...
…the consumer price index reflects the prices of all
goods and services bought by consumers.
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price
Index


The consumer price index compares the price of a
fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the
basket in the base year (only occasionally does the
BLS change the basket)...
…whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of
currently produced goods and services to the price of
the same goods and services in the base year.
Two Measures of Inflation
Percent
per Year
15
CPI
10
5
0
GDP deflator
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Copyright©2004 South-Western
CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR
THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION

Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of
inflation when comparing dollar figures from
different times.
Dollar Figures from Different Times

Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruth’s
wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:
Salary2001
Price level in 2001
 Salary1931 
Price level in 1931
177
 $80,000 
15.2
 $931,579
The Most Popular Movies of All Times, Inflation
Adjusted
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Indexation

When some dollar amount is automatically
corrected for inflation by law or contract, the
amount is said to be indexed for inflation.
Real (r%) and Nominal Interest (i%) Rates

The nominal interest (i%) rate is the interest rate
usually reported and not corrected for inflation
(π%).
 It

is the interest rate that a bank pays.
The real interest rate (r%) is the nominal interest
rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation
(π%).
Real (r%) and Nominal Interest (i%) Rates



You borrowed $1,000 for one year.
Nominal interest rate was 15%.
During the year inflation was 10%.
Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation
r% = i% - π%
r% = 15% - 10%
r% = 5%
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
Interest Rates
(percent
per year)
15
10
Nominal interest rate
5
0
Real interest rate
–5
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Inflation

Unanticipated Inflation
 Because
not everyone is hurt by inflation, economists have
to look at real income
 The people hurt by unanticipated inflation are those whose
incomes don’t keep up with rising prices
 Professionals
do well because they can adjust prices
 Business owners can also adjust prices
 Workers in unions do well because they receie COLA increase
 Those hardest hit are those on fixed incomes and savers
 Banks also are hurt because they are paid back with money that
is worth less
Is Inflation Good or Bad
Bad


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Loss of real wages
Loss of real wealth
Loss in value of savings
Loss in value of fixed
income
Loss of the value of
currencies
Loss of incentive to hire
Good


If you owe money, you
pay back with cheaper
money
Unemployment only
hurts unemployed,
everyone suffers from
inflation
Adjusting for inflation



Many contracts have COLA clauses, but they may not
keep up
Banks try to protect themselves by working the ROI into
the cost of the loan
Economists are also concerned about the future, so they
look at how fast the ROI will double
 Rule
of 70
 70/[email protected]
number of years prices will double
Types of Inflation

Demand-pull
 Spending
increases faster that production “too much
spending chasing too few good”

Cost-push or supply-side inflation
 Prices
rise because of a rise in per unit production costs
 (wages
 visuals
from unions; supply shocks)