Transcript The War in Afghanistan

THE INVASION OF IRAQ 2003
“OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM?”
Why were we there?
•WMD
•George W. Bush
•Bush Advisors
•9/11
•Preventive War
•US Strategic Culture
•Oil
MISTAKES
WMD
 Disbanding Iraqi Army
 De-Bathification
 Military Strategy – Search and Destroy
Conveying overly negative image
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MISTAKES
Underestimating the influence of Iran in Iraqi Shiite politics
 Cultural differences: Arabs vs. Kurds
 Misunderstanding of terrorism
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MISTAKES
Security (Transportation, Blackwater, Weapons, Borders)
 Economically: Where is the money going?
 Winning hearts and minds
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SUCCESS
How do you measure success?
 The “Surge”
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 COIN strategy: U.S. and Iraqi forces together
 Indirect Counterinsurgency
 The Anbar Awakening
Saddam out of power
 Increased enlistment into Iraqi Army/Reduced US presence
 Elections/New Government
 Normal life resumed?
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THE FUTURE
•Kurd independence?
•Mapping the new Middle East
•Egypt
THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN
GEOGRAPHY
POPULATION
Total -- 28,395,716 (est. July 2010)
 Structure
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 0-14
years: 43.6%
 15-64 years: 54%
 65 years and over: 2.4%
Median Age – 18 years
 Life expectancy – 44.4 years
 24% in urban centers
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Ethnic groups
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Religion
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Pashtun 42%,
Tajik 27%,
Hazara 9%,
Uzbek 9%,
Aimak 4%,
Turkmen 3%,
Baloch 2%,
other 4%
Sunni Muslim 80%,
Shia Muslim 19%,
Other 1%
Language
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Afghan Persian or Dari (official)
50%,
Pashto (official) 35%,
Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek
and Turkmen) 11%,
30 minor languages (primarily
Balochi and Pashai) 4%,
ETHNIC MAKE-UP
ECONOMY
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GDP
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Labor – 15 million (2004 est.)
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$27.01 billion (2009 est.) – 110 in world rank
$1,000/capita (2009 est.) – 210 in world rank
agriculture: 78.6%
industry: 5.7%
services: 15.7% (FY08/09 est.)
35% unemployed (2008 est.)
Products
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Agricultural -- opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton,
sheepskins, lambskins
Industrial -- small-scale production of consumer goods; handwoven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper
HISTORY
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1747 – unification of the Pashtun tribes
1919 - independence from notional British control
1973 coup and a 1978 Communist counter-coup resulted in Soviet Union
invasion 1979
1989 USSR withdrawal
1996 end of civil war period control by Taliban
11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in NYC and Washington, D.C.
7 October 2001 U.S., Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance military
action toppled the Taliban.
December 2004, Hamid KARZAI became the first democratically elected
president of Afghanistan and the National Assembly was inaugurated the
following December.
GOVERNMENT
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Executive – Hamid Karzai –
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Legislative -- National Assembly or Parliament.
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Head of state and
Command-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Afghanistan.
Lower house is the Wolesi Jirga (the House of People)
Upper house is the Meshrano Jirga. (House of Elders)
Judicial
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Supreme Court (Stera Mahkama), High Courts, and Appeal
Courts.
Supreme Court is composed of nine members
Appointed by the President for a period of ten years
 Approval of the Wolesi Jirga.
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LEAD INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN (pre-surge)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7966982.stm#map
AFGHANISTAN FACTS
The Taliban, Sunni fundamentalists, had
controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996
after defeat of the Northern Alliance. They
provided safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and
other members of al Qaeda during their
planning of the 9/11 “Planes Operation”
 The Taliban were only recognized by 3 other
states and were known for a brutal strict
interpretation of Sharia Law. The provided a
training ground for radical Islamic terrorists
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AFGHANISTAN FACTS
Operation “Enduring Freedom”, The US-led invasion in 2001 was largely
special forces, CIA and air support for Northern Alliance forces, toppled
the Taliban in just 2 months. Remnants of the Taliban moved to the Tora
Bora region in Eastern Afghanistan or in to Pakistan
AFGHANISTAN FACTS
History of Invasion –
British, Soviet Union
AFGHANISTAN FACTS
The UN Security Council created the NATO
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
to rebuild Afghanistan and provide security.
 Hamid Karzai, “The Mayor of Kabul”
 By 2003 the Taliban had regrouped in Pakistan
 By 2007 Security incidents increased 300%.
 IED attacks rose by 37%
 The Karzai govt control only75% of the country
 Over 1000 civilians killed by ISAF
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AFGHANISTAN FACTS
Afghanistan is not Iraq
AFGHANISTAN FACTS
Afghanistan is 174th of 178 countries on the UN
development index
 Afghanistan is 176th of 180 countries on the UN
corruption index
 GDP per capita is $456, up from 352 last year
 90% of Aghan budget comes from foreign aid
 Afghanistan supplies 90% of the world’s opium,
worth $3 billion to the economy
 Taliban make $200 million per year from taxing
poppy production
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AFGHANISTAN FACTS
The Afghan “Surge”
 ISAF now numbers 120K up from 70k (90k are
American)
 Indirect Counterinsurgency has reduced civilian
casualties by half
 “Clear, Hold, Build……and Transfer/WHAM
 Focus remains Helmand & Kandahar provinces
 Afghan Army and police recruiting are up, but
illiteracy and desertion still present a problem
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ISSUES
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What would represent a successful outcome?
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What policies would you recommend?