Transcript Baseline developments for the NEC Directive revision

Baseline developments for NEC Directie
revision
Projections Expert Panel
25 October 2007
Dublin, Ireland
Eduard Dame
DG Environment C5, Energy & Environment
Baselines
2005 CAFE Baseline
2006 NECD Member States baseline
EU-wide baselines based on PRIMES 2005 model
 no carbon constraint
0 € per ton CO2 in 2020

low carbon constraint / with or without CCS
12 € per ton Co2 in 2012 and 20 € per ton CO2 in 2020

high carbon constraint / with or without CCS
90 € per ton CO2 in 2020

Coherent scenario
- 22% CO2 reduction
EU-wide baselines based on PRIMES 2007 model
 Business as usual baseline
 Greenhouse gas burden sharing baseline scenario
Cost implications of a more ambitious
climate scenario
140
120
Billion €/yr
100
80
60
40
20
0
National projections
Coherent scenario
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets
Costs for further measures to achieve the TSAP targets
Costs for implementing current air pollution legislation
GHG emission projections by
Member States 2010 -2020

EU27 2005 GHG emissions:
 7.9%

below 1990 levels
EU27 2010 GHG emissions:
Existing measures: 5.0% below 1990 levels
 Additional domestic policies and measures under
preparation: 9.5% below 1990 levels
 Including EU ETS, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon
sinks: 14.2% below 1990 levels


EU27 2020 GHG emissions:

5.5% below 1990 levels
New baseline CO2 projections
with PRIMES



Primes is a partial-equilibrium energy model
 market clearing in the energy system taking into
account individual behaviour of economic agents
Baseline includes no new policies
Assumptions used:



Annual EU27 GDP growth for the period 2005-2020 of 2.4%
Annual EU12 GDP growth for the period 2005-2020 of 4.5%
Includes EU ETS with carbon price


2010: 20 €/t CO2
2020: 22 €/t CO2
 previous run assumed carbon price of 5 € in EU ETS
New baseline CO2 projections
with PRIMES

Global Energy prices are revised upwards in the new
baseline compared to the baseline of 2005!
Baseline 2007 Baseline 2005

$ (05)/ boe
2010
2020
Oil
54.5
61.1
Gas
41.5
46.0
Coal
13.7
14.7
2010
44.6
33.9
12.5
2020
48.1
37.0
14.1
Annual energy intensity


Improved with 1.4% annually between 1990-2005
Projected to improve with 1.8% annually between 2005-2020!
Result: Carbon intensity energy
mix remains flat in baseline
C a rb o n a nd E ne r g y in te n s it y 1 9 9 0 = 1 0 0
2000
m to e
1800
100
1600
80
renewables
nuclear
1400
1200
60
1000
natural gas
oil
800
40
solids
600
400
20
200
0
0
1990
Source : PRIMES
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
carbon
intensity
energy
intensity
Result: CO2 emissions increase
again by 2020
CO2 emission changes in baseline
100% = 1990 CO2 emissions
108%
106%
104%
102%
2005 Baseline EU 25
100%
2007 Baseline EU 25
2007 Baseline EU 27
98%
96%
94%
92%
2005
Source : PRIMES
2010
2020
Overall GHG baseline projections
2020 without additional policies

Non-CO2 gases (CH4, N2O and F-gases) from the GAINS model:


CO2 from PRIMES (includes outbound aviation!)



Projections 2020 compared to 1990: +5.2 %
Projections 2020 compared to 2005: +7.9 %
Non-CO2 from GAINS



are estimated using National projections for the NEC directive that
estimate future activity data from sources of non-CO2 gases
Projections 2020 compared to 1990: -25.3%
Projections 2020 compared to 2005: -5.8%
All GHG from PRIMES-GAINS



Projections 2010 compared to 1990: -5.9%
Projections 2020 compared to 1990: -1.4%
Projections 2020 compared to 2005: +5.4%
Compare different projections
6000,00
5000,00
EU-27 emissions
Primes-Gains projections are
in line with MS projections
for existing measures
3000,00
2000,00
EU-27 existing measures
EU-27 additional measures
EU-27 2020 projection
EU-27 20% target by 2020
EU-27 30% target by 2020
1000,00
Primes-GAINS baseline
projection
Year
Source : Member States projections, PRIMES-GAINS
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0,00
1990
Mt CO2 eq.
4000,00
Energy consumption EU-27
2000, National projections and PRIMES
baseline 2020
30
25
Exajoule
20
15
10
5
0
Coal
Biomass,
waste
Heavy fuel
oil
2000
Diesel
Gasoline
National projections 2020
Natural gas
Nuclear
PRIMES baseline 2020
Other
renewables
Baseline emission projections
EU-27, Current legislation
100%
60%
40%
20%
SO2
NOx
National projections
PM2.5
NH3
PRIMES 2007 baseline
VOC
2020
2010
2000
2020
2010
2000
2020
2010
2000
2020
2010
2000
2020
2010
0%
2000
Relative to 2000
80%
Impact indicators for the baseline
projections
100%
Percent of indicator in 2000
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
PM health impacts
(YOLLs)
Eutrophication
Ecosystems area
National projections (+3% CO2)
Acidification Forest
area
PRIMES 2007 baseline
Ozone
Premature
deaths
TSAP policy target
Conclusions

The new PRIMES baseline scenario has been
implemented in GAINS.

While for the EU-27 overall CO2 emissions are very
similar, there are still discrepancies to national energy
and CO2 projections.

In total, air pollution emissions are similar to the
national projections, and consequently the (baseline)
air pollution impacts too.