Transcript There are therefore only two ways to

Environmental Change Institute
The role of energy demand
in a low carbon future
Nick Eyre
Environmental Change Institute
April 10, 2016
World Primary Energy Demand 1971-2009
How can we decarbonise an economy?
In any economy
Carbon emissions, C ≡ (C/E) x (E/GDP) x GDP
where C = carbon emissions, and E = energy use
There are therefore only two ways to decarbonise a
growing economy


Reduce the ‘carbon ratio’, C/E by changing energy
sources
Reduce the ‘energy ratio’ by improving energy efficiency
How are we doing in the UK?
UK Carbon and Energy ratios
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
C/E
0.4
E/GDP
0.2
0
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Year
1996
2001
2006
What should this tell us?

UK carbon targets are very tough – 75% reduction by
2050 (whilst the economy grows by >100%)

To deliver such a big change, we will need to improve the
‘energy ratio’ and the ‘carbon ratio’

Historically we have done a lot better at improving the
energy ratio than the carbon ratio

The media focus on ‘supply side’ issues (nuclear, carbon
sequestration, renewables, shale gas etc) is unbalanced

There is also a need to think about ‘how we use energy’.
Quantifying demand reduction
The “Low Energy Lifestyles” project
The research project
 UK Energy Research Centre project
“Energy 2050”
 One scenarios looking at low carbon,
resilient energy futures for the UK.
 Published by Earthscan
The team:
 Nick Eyre, Christian Brand, Russell
Layberry (Oxford)
 Jillian Anable (Aberdeen)
 Neil Strachan (University College, London)
What are lifestyles?
A precise definition is
difficult....
but we know one when
we see it
A high energy lifestyle
The low energy lifestyle scenario
Social change leads to a culture in which lower energy
use is more socially acceptable, leading to:


greater use of green technologies in buildings and personal
transport..
and different behavioural patterns in their use
It needs to be supported by


public policy – taxes, incentives, regulations etc
and new infrastructure – smart grids, heat networks, electric
mass transit
Household energy use assumptions
Drivers of
demand:
Choice of
technology:
• Internal temperature
Returns to mid-1990s levels
• Lights and appliances Usage stabilises
• Retrofit insulation
Universal
• Replacement heating
Biomass, CHP and heat pumps
• Solar energy use
Widespread
Household sector: impacts on heating
UK Residential Heat Demand
1,800
1,600
1,400
Solar
1,200
Combined heat and power
Solid/wood fuel
1,000
Oil
PJ/year
800
Heat pumps
Electricity
600
Gas condensing
400
Gas conventional
200
2000
2050 BAU
2050 low energy
Transport energy use assumptions
Accessibility
Localism
Distance
travelled
Reduced by 21%
Slower speeds
Compact cities
Car-free zones
Modal choice
Car use falls from 67% to 38%
Cycling rises from 1% to 13%
Car clubs
ICT
Tele-working
Tele-shopping
Less air travel
Vehicle
choice
Electric vehicles
dominant
Transport sector: impacts on fuel demand
Transport Energy Demand
2,500
2,000
Bio-ethanol
Bio-diesel
1,500
Jet fuel
PJ/year
Hydrogen
1,000
Electricity
Diesel
Petrol
500
2000
2050 BAU
2050 low energy
Conclusions: overall impacts
Lifestyle change can produce energy technology
choice and behaviour change, leading to:

A reduction in energy demand in homes and transport
of ~50% by 2050
 A reduction in national energy use and carbon
emissions of ~30% by 2050
 A reduction in the cost of delivering a low carbon
energy system by ~£70 billion/year
 Less use of gas and oil, and therefore better energy
security