Grand Overview

download report

Transcript Grand Overview

Grand Overview
1. Over consumption will lead to
resource scarcity eventually
2. That time is near for fossil fuels as
our energy foundation
3. New solutions do exist
Consumption is the sole end and
purpose of all production
Adam Smith – right up there
with Aristotle!
1942 Lecture
• I do not think we will ever escape from the
appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion
in which we have been madly turning for the last
three centuries – the cage in which we landed
ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based
upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which
consumption has to be artificially stimulated in
order to keep production going is a society
founded on trash and waste and such a society is
a house built upon sand.
Consumption with a Conscience
The traditional Economic Argument
Does Not Scale!
Global Consequences of Global
Consumption
And Now we are at an Interesting
Point ($100 for crude oil)
The Business As Usual Future
Continued Climate Change
What Are the BAU Options?
• LNG development
• “Clean Coal”
• Fast Breeder
Reactors
• Unconventional Oil
sources (shale oil and
tar sands)
• Fastest gateway to
energy economy
• Leads to Growth of
GDP
• Accelerates Global
CO2 Deposition
• Reinforces BAU –
mine the planet
Breaking out of BAU
 Consume less
 Requires some
 Drive less
component of
morality based
decision making
 Requires leadership
 Requires world
cooperation
 Plan ahead
 Invest in Renewable
Energy infrastructure
 Have long term
governmental goals
But Many Options Now Exist
Solar PV
 Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric
 Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
 Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain
and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids)
 Biomass Co-Generation
 OTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to Renewables
High capital cost; long payback times
 Lack of any vision or out of the box
thinking on truly large scale projects
 NIMBY reactions to anything and
everything makes implementation difficult
 Technology uncertainty
 Electrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and Cons
• Pros
• Resource is available
• CSP technology
rapidly improving
• Many small scale
applications
• Thermal Electric is
dispatchable
• Can co-locate with
Fossil Plan
• Cons
• Large $/Watt
installation costs
• Large Scale (1000
MW or greater)
facilities difficult
• Requires Significant
Energy storage for
24x7
Wind Pros and Cons
• Pros
• Low levelized costs
• Small footprint on the
Land
• Applicable on both
large and small scale
• Some wind resources
is usually always
present
• Cons
• Visual Pollution
• Resource is erratic in
nature and therefore
requires energy
storage
• Transmission line
expense for remote
wind farms is large
Transportation Changes
• Pros
• Single biggest lever
arm for energy
conservation
• Single biggest lever to
mitigate climate
change
• Single biggest
influence on
development
• Cons
• Marx says we can’t
• Our whole economic
structure is based on
private vehicles
• Vast amounts of jobs
are associated with
our current structure
OTEC; Gulf Current
• Pros
• Has enough capacity
to sustain world for
centuries
• In situ Hydrogen
Production for
transport economy
• Cons
• Gigantic up front
costs
• Engineering
challenge
• Requires world
cooperation
Be Optimistic
• Change can occur – this class is part of this
process
• Individual attitudes matter and multiply (Ideas
are Bulletproof)
• European Union is providing a good example
of government driven initiatives for a new
energy economy
• Technology is rapidly improving
• Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred!