Transcript Grand Overview
Grand Overview 1. Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually 2. That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy foundation 3. New solutions do exist Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle! 1942 Lecture • I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand. Consumption with a Conscience The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale! Global Consequences of Global Consumption And Now we are at an Interesting Point ($100 for crude oil) The Business As Usual Future Continued Climate Change What Are the BAU Options? • LNG development • “Clean Coal” • Fast Breeder Reactors • Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) • Fastest gateway to energy economy • Leads to Growth of GDP • Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition • Reinforces BAU – mine the planet Breaking out of BAU Consume less Requires some Drive less component of morality based decision making Requires leadership Requires world cooperation Plan ahead Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure Have long term governmental goals But Many Options Now Exist Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult Technology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitations Solar Pros and Cons • Pros • Resource is available • CSP technology rapidly improving • Many small scale applications • Thermal Electric is dispatchable • Can co-locate with Fossil Plan • Cons • Large $/Watt installation costs • Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult • Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7 Wind Pros and Cons • Pros • Low levelized costs • Small footprint on the Land • Applicable on both large and small scale • Some wind resources is usually always present • Cons • Visual Pollution • Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage • Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large Transportation Changes • Pros • Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation • Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change • Single biggest influence on development • Cons • Marx says we can’t • Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles • Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure OTEC; Gulf Current • Pros • Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries • In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy • Cons • Gigantic up front costs • Engineering challenge • Requires world cooperation Be Optimistic • Change can occur – this class is part of this process • Individual attitudes matter and multiply (Ideas are Bulletproof) • European Union is providing a good example of government driven initiatives for a new energy economy • Technology is rapidly improving • Wisdom can be re-acquired –remember Fred!