Transcript MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues

MTEF/Joint
Programming : update
and current issues
DPG MTEF/Joint programming
workshop
25 July 2006
Context
GoT led JAS process has produced
key doc on principles, but no
immediate prospect of joint
analysis/program replacing agency
program documents
 Many agencies need some form of
program document in the near term
=> Need for short analysis/program
document, as DP response to
Mkukuta/JAS, prepared by end

Components of a program
doc
Part 1
 Part 2
 Part 3


[Part 4]
JAS – existing text
Joint country analysis
Joint programming
document
Optional, agency
specific supplement
(preferably kept to a
minimum)
Part 3 -Joint program doc :
outline
Intro, review of lessons learnt
 Managing external financing –
mapping out relation of JAS and
annual planning and budget process
 Joint programming – summary of key
issues from MTEF responses on
Mkukuta financing, consistency with
JAS + annex tables
 Monitoring
 Risk analysis : identification,
mitigation, scenarios/response

MTEF DP projections so
far…….
14 agencies + collective UN
projections received so far
 Analysis focussed on aggregate
projection issues highlighted in earlier
DP discussion, (need to capture
planned disbursements, not just
existing commitments)
 Other analysis to follow, guided by
today’s discussion

DPs Support
(2006/07=100)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
World Bank
Denmark
Norway
Netherlands
Ireland
EC
ADB
DfID
Finland
Switzerland
UN
Japan
Canada
Germany
Total DPs Suppor t
(% of GDP)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Total
2009/10
Budget Support
(% of GDP)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Total
2009/10
Total External Financing, actaul + projections
Donor Support
14.0
12.0
% of GDP
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
Actual Donor Support
MTEF Projection 06
MTEF Projection 04
MTEF Projection 03
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
MTEF Projection 05
2008/09
Total External Financing, actual + projections
14.0
12.0
% of GDP
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Actual Donor Support
MTEF Projection 07
MTEF Projection 06
MTEF Projection 05
MTEF Projection 04
MTEF Projection 03
2009/10
Challenges faced by DPs
Various planning and budgeting cycles
 DoL exercise may effect sector
distribution in outer years
 Domestic political uncertainties
 Several imlementing agencies/country
 Fiscal year/calendar year
 Exchange rates

Issues for the joint program
document : criteria



Adding value to individual agency plans
(clarifying overall context, adjusting
collective strategy, adding collective
commitments)
Useful contribution achievable in time
horizon for program doc
Useful for strengthening national planning
and budget process, not just one off
exercise to meet agency program doc
requirements
Proposed issues from the
workshop
Improving DP medium term
projections
 Aid absorption/scaling up
 Alignment with MKUKUTA
 Alignment with JAS
 Funding modalities

Improving DP medium term
projections




Proposed categories : distinguishing
commitments, plans, unallocated.
DPs vary in ability to report planned +
unallocated. DPG commitment to look at
this and seek improvements
Can the aggregates be made more realistic
than the components ? Collective DPG
commitment to review shortfalls?
More frequent interaction on financing
plans.
Improving…(2)
Useful to include and how?
 Regional programmes
 NGOs
 Institutional cooperation
 Research
 Debt relief
 Humanitarian aid
Macro planning



GoT leadership on scenarios on public
expenditure/ level of external financing
(PER macro group?) linked to MKUKUTA,
JAS
At first glance, projections suggest focus
may need to be on issues of scaling down !
Given recent history on external financing
projections, should at least explore scenario
of continued increase, and potential
absorption issues at macro and sector level
Alignment with MKUKUTA
Analysis by sector (distribute sector
projections for sector group
comment?)
 Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg
alignment with requirements on
financing growth agenda, major
infrastructure, transport sector plan,
etc

Alignment with JAS
Paris Declaration survey tells us
where we are now on implementing
JAS principles
 MTEF projections can tell us where
we will be up to 2010, based on
existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any
others?) - preliminary target for JAS
implementation, basis for dialogue

Budget support in the MTEF
Proportion of budget support appears
to be rising (as % GDP, declining less
rapidly than total external financing)
 Looking for changes in
expenditure/financing patterns
consistent with continued budget
support eg budget financing of core
reform, additional domestic capital
expenditure
