Transcript Speaker 4.3
The Digital Divide: transforming lives for the better or worse! FITCE Congress 2008 Michael Browne (23rd September 2008) © eircom Contents • Why broadband matters - National, Enterprise & Individual • Broadband Availability, Adoption and Affordability • Next Generation Broadband Applications • Next Generation Access Network Roadblocks • Next Generation Access Network Evolution • Encouraging Wider Deployment of Next Generation Access Networks © eircom 2 Why Broadband Matters! National • Positive impact on GNP • Early broadband access accelerates economic growth, • Where to locate a business Enterprise • Higher labour productivity. Increases profits. • Wider market. • Increases the number of business Individual • Easier to join the workforce. • Removes the geographic constraints from social interaction. • Supports any scale of social group • Improves educational performance • Enables more non-verbal communication © eircom 3 Broadband Availability, Adoption and Affordability Available 92% DSL coverage in the EU-15 was 91.9% in Dec 2006 The average availability for rural areas was 76%. Cable modem broadband availability was 37% in Dec 2006 Adoption 20% Average take up rate is 20%, (Range from 35.6% to 7.6%). Dominated by males, young, more educated and higher income Affordable <1% of monthly GDP per capita The lowest-priced broadband is less than 1% of monthly GDP per capita. © eircom 4 Next Generation Broadband Applications Maximum Downstream Requirements • E-health Applications • Lifelong Learning • General High Definition TV (HDTV) Next Generation Video (3D) Remote Computing Home Surveillance 3D Gaming Source: Analysys for Broadband Stakeholders Group © eircom 5 Next Generation Broadband Applications : E-Health Ageing Population – Rising Health Costs 85+ 5.52 75-84yrs 3.2 65-74yrs 1.70 0.82 45-64yrs 15-44yrs 5-14yrs 0 - 4yrs © eircom 0.53 0.4 1.0 Relative Healthcare Costs per Capita (Mayhew, 2000) 6 Next Generation Broadband Applications : Lifelong Learning 21st century technologist — • • • • expert in a range of subjects, versatile, experienced, and articulate. Broadband and distance education help to improve life-long learning Use of basic applications (word processing) are learned in school. General use of computers (surf the internet) is learned outside the school setting. Broadband access results in significant improvements in pupils’ performance • 25% use internet for education (broadband) • 14% use internet for education (non-broadband) Minimise the Social Divide by smoothing out the Digital Divide. © eircom 7 Next Generation Access Networks Roadblocks: Capital Cost and Take Rate • Capital Cost Fibre Network Layout and Capital Expenditure Source: OECD (2007) • Take Rate © eircom Project Orange Pau BC Verizon FiOS ViaEuropa Lyse Tele MalarEnergi NTT Country France France USA Sweden Norway Sweden Japan Homes Passed 146,000 43,000 10,000,000 10,000 192,000 37,000 42,630,000 FTTH Take-Up Rates Take up ~ 5% 15% 23% 25% 60% 75% 21% Years since roll out 1 2 2 1 4 8 6 Source: Yankee Group Research (2008) 8 Next Generation Access Network Roadblocks: Relative Costs of Broadband Platform Rural Urban Suburban Relative Cost/Complexity (%) 100 90 80 Potential Wireless Existing Wireless 70 DSL Optic Fibre Cable Modems 60 50 40 Satellite 30 20 10 0 00.1 1 10 100 1,000 Population Density per © eircom 10,000 100,000 km2 http://www.iiasa.ac.at Adapted from Gérald Chouinard - ITU News magazine 9 Next Generation Access Network Evolution FTTH HFC Co-ax FTTCab Broadband Platform Twisted Pair Satellite Wireless 100 Mb/s 50Mb/s 15Mb/s 5Mb/s 1Mb/s 0.5Mb/s Population Density © eircom 10 Next Generation Access Network Evolution • Urban area: population density > 500/km² • Suburban area: population density between 100/km² and 500/km², • Rural area: population density < 100/km² © eircom TI's network evolution is estimated to result in • 16% Fibre to the Home • 49% Fibre to the Cabinet • 35% Fibre to the Exchange 11 Next Generation Access Network Evolution: Digital Slices Laissez-faire approach to fixed network Unable to get broadband 1-5 Mb/s, 5-10Mb/s, up to 25Mbs up to 50Mb/s and up to 100Mb/s © eircom 12 Recommendations: Encouraging Wider Deployment of Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) Individual • Focus on specific hard-to-reach groups (poor, limited education ,etc.) • Financial incentives/ Tax breaks to purchase a PC and broadband. • Offer public broadband access points Businesses • Focus on SMEs and start-ups. (financial incentives, tax credits) • Creating business areas with very fast broadband access • Adapting laws to make teleworking more feasible. SMEs: tax relief €5,000, 100Mb/s connection Rural farm families: tax relief of €2,000, for a PC and 20Mb/s connection Elderly: €2,000 grant for an e-health solution, Expected Results • Overcome the "pump head" resistance to NGANs. • Generate significant construction activity. • Reduce the risk associated with the high capital expenditure. © eircom 13