Transcript US Energy Use

U.S. Energy Needs:
Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
by Arlie M. Skov P.E.
CCCOGP Meeting
The Grand, Long Beach, CA
September 17, 2008
Sources of Energy
Primary
 Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas (stored biomass)
 Solar: Sunlight, wind, hydropower, biomass,
 Nuclear: Geothermal, fission, fusion
 Celestial motion: Tides
 “Dark Energy”: 72% of universe
Sources of Energy
Secondary or Converted (With Losses)
 Electricity
 Hydrogen
 Ethanol, biodiesel, etc.
 Muscle power (biomass)
U.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year
and Growing at One Quad/Year
One Quad is One Quadrillion BTU’s (1 x 1015)
 Or 160 mn bbls oil (440,000 BOPD)
 Or 50 mn tons of coal (3000 trainloads)
 Or 12 bn gal. of ethanol (30 mn acres, half of all corn)
 Or 37 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants
 Or 50 mn cords of wood (annual new growth of 85 mn
acres, 1/3 all US forest land)
 Or 150,000 1 MW wind turbines
U.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm Workers
1650 to 2000
100
100
MMBTU
per Capita
230 360 340
Energy Use, Fuels, Workers
100
80
60
Energy Use, Quads
% Non-Fossil Fuels
40
% Workers on Farms
20
0
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
U.S. Energy Use – 2007
By Fuel, By Sector, in Quads
Fuel
Residential &
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Electric
Power
Total
Coal
0.1
1.9
-
20.8
22.8
Gas
7.9
8.0
0.7
7.0
23.6
Oil
1.9
9.7
27.6
1.7
39.8
Subtotal
Fossil Fuels
9.9
19.6
28.2
28.5
86.2
Nuclear
-
-
-
8.4
8.4
Hydro
-
-
-
2.2
2.5
Biomass
0.0
2.0
0.6
0.0
3.6
Other
0.1
-
-
0.6
0.7
Total
10.6
21.6
28.9
40.6
101.6
Rate of Change in U.S. Energy Use
By Source, 1997-07
Fuel
Quads
Percent
Coal
1.3
6
Gas
0.4
2
Oil
3.7
10
Subtotal Fossil
5.4
7
Nuclear
1.8
(-1.2)
28
(-32)
0.5
16
(-0.3)
(-5)
6.8
7.2
Hydro
Subtotal
All Renwables
All
Rate of Change in U.S. Use
of Renewable Energy
By Source, 1997-07
Source
Absolute, Quads
Percent
Hydro
Wood
(-1.18)
(-0.21)
(-32)
(-9)
Waste
(-0.12)
(-22)
Ethanol
0.83
344
Geothermal
0.03
9
Solar
0.01
14
Wind
0.29
738
(-0.35)
(-6)
Total Renewables
Oil Prices, Consumption,
and the Economy
A Brief History
Year
$/bbl,
Nom.
$/bbl,
$2000
US Use,
bn bbl
GDP, $ tn
Oil, % of
GDP
1949
$2
$16
2.1
$1.6
2.0%
1981
$32
$54
5.9
$5.3
5.9%
1986
$13
$8
5.9
$6.3
1.7%
2008
$150
$123
7.6
$12.4
7.5%
Oil Prices and the Economy
% Chg.,
Oil price
No. of
Recessions
Avg.
Severity*
Avg. Peak
Inflation
1949-73 (24)
(-21%)
5
20
2%
1973-81 (8)
341%
3
36
11%
1986-02 (16)
23%
2
6
4%
2002-07 (5)
158%
0
—
—
Period (Years)
 Duration (months) X Depth (peak GDP drop, %)
 1929-33 = 1420
Summary: Status of U.S. Energy Use
Growth and Problems
 U.S. economy grew using cheap energy
 Biggest uses and growth rates
– Electric power, 41 Q, 15%
– Transportation, 29 Q, 16%
 Both coal and oil produce CO2
 CO2 capture and sequestration?
What Must Be Done
Electric Power
 Build new nuclear power plants, recycle spent fuel
and alleviate regulatory political restrictions
 Use CO2 capture & sequestration for coal-fired plants
 Fully develop low-cost intermittent sources:
Wind, solar, tides, etc.
 Conservation, automatic with price?
 Build more dams with pumped storage
What Must Be Done
Transportation
 Liquid fuel for autos, trucks, tractors, trains, planes
and boats is indispensable
 Must develop all U.S. oil and gas resources,
onshore and offshore
 Develop biofuels as competing uses permit
 Build Fischer-Tropsch plants with CO2 capture
 Longer term: Computer control of traffic, electric
power and batteries for land transport
Problems with Wind Power
Intermittency and Predictability, (E=mv3)
Germany, 2004: Wind Power from 7000 Wind Turbines, % of Daily Peak Grid Load, From 0.2-38%!
History of U.S. Nuclear Power
Number of New Units Annually & Years to Build
20
New Operable Nuclear Power Units15
Years to Build
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
How Fast Can We Develop
U.S. Energy Sources?
Time Frame
Increase
Quads/Year
Oil (GOM)
1996-02
750 MBOPD
0.28
Oil (GOM)
2006-10
850 MBOPD
0.48
Nuclear
1973-74
15/year
2.47
China plans 100
new nuclear units
2008-20
8/year
1.37
Biofuels
2006-07
—
0.22
Wind
2006-07
—
0.06
Solar
2006-07
—
0.01
Geothermal
2006-07
—
0.01
Sources
Impediments to Rapid Development
of New U.S. Energy Sources
 Excess regulation
 Proliferation of NGO’s
 Lawsuits
 A pampered public
 Obsequious politicians
pandering to a pampered
public and to NGO’s
Effeteness:
Lacking or loss of ability to get things done
Examples of Legal & Regulatory Delays
Prudhoe Bay Oil
Yucca Mountain
ITER
Planned
4 years
Actual
8 years
Planned
14 years
Current
33 years
Cost to Date
$9 billion
Planned
15 years
Current
32 years
Cost to Date
$15 billion
“Four years to design and build a new Chevrolet?
*#}! We won World War II in less time than that!”
- Ross Perot (as member of GM Board)
U.S. Energy Needs:
Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
 We need both… and quickly.
 Alleviate or eliminate barriers to action:
legislative, judicial, environmental, partisan,
political bickering, NIMBY & BANANA
 Quickly develop comprehensive energy plan –
not piecemeal, partial, political, or slowly
 Implement plan quickly and decisively,
before the world economy and ours
collapses completely
What About the Federal Energy Bill?
Signed December 19, 2007
 Mandates 35 mpg for autos
(including SUV’s) by 2020, up
from 27.5
 Mandates 36 bn gal of biofuels per
year by 2022, w/ max of 15 bn
corn-based ethanol
 Today’s use: 140 bn gal gasoline
and 6 bn gal biofuels
A Brief History of CAFE
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
 Enacted 1975
 Autos standard set at 27.5 MPG
 Light trucks (pickups, vans, SUV’s) exempt
 Auto mpg 1975-05: up 64% to 22.9 MPG
 Light trucks mpg up 54% to 16.2 MPG
 Light trucks, as % of automotive fleet, up from 15% to 41%
“CAFÉ is like trying to fight obesity by requiring
tailors to make only small size clothing.”
- Bob Lutz, Chairman, GM
Correlation Function, E
U.S. Energy Use
E = Q/P*G
(Q=quads, P=population, G=GDP in 1996$)
Ln E
1000
10
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Lessons from Early U.S. History
 Prior to 1850, used only “renewable” fuels
 From 1800 to 1925, % of US work force on
farms dropped from 86% to 19%
 Concurrently, “renewable” fuel use dropped
from 100% to 10%
 Total fuel use jumped 45-fold, from 0.5 quads
to 22.4.
U.S. Energy Needs:
Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
by Arlie M. Skov
Cosmopolitan Club of Santa Barbara
Elks Lodge, Goleta, CA
July 17, 2008