Sustainable? - Department of Agricultural Economics

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Transcript Sustainable? - Department of Agricultural Economics

12-a.
What is Sustainability & How Does it
Relate to Natural Resource
Management?
Larry D. Sanders
(SPRING 2002)
Dept. of Ag Economics
Oklahoma State University
1
INTRODUCTION
(ch. 11-12 Hackett)
 Purpose:
– to become aware of the concept of sustainability &
long term thinking
 Learning
Objectives. To understand/become aware
of:
1. The concept of sustainability with respect to
agriculture.
2. The concept of sustainability with respect to poor
developing countries & the global system
3. The importance of long term thinking to avoid
possibly irreversible or very costly damage & loss of life
2
Imperatives for Sustainable Systems
Economy
(efficiency)
Environment
(maintain/
enhance)
Individual/
Community
(cohesion)
3
Sustainability:
 Normative
standard/social goal
 Vision of the future
 Iroquois Confederation (7 generations)
 More inclusive/comprehensive view of
economic development/well-being
 Whatever it takes to maintain the lives &
livelihoods of people in the system
4
Sustainable Agriculture, as an example:
“An integrated system of plant & animal production
practices having a site specific application that will, over
the long term: satisfy human food & fiber needs; enhance
environmental quality & the natural resource base upon
which the agricultural economy depends; make the most
efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm
resources and integrate, where appropriate, natural
biological cycles & controls; sustain the economic viability
of farm farm operation; and enhance the quality of life for
farmers and society as a whole.”
--The Food, Agriculture, Conservation, & Trade Act of 1990
5
“5 Capitals” of Viederman:
1.Nature’s Capital: the flow of natural resources &
cycling of waste (& life-sustaining ecosystem)
2.Human Capital: people using knowledge/skills to
function
3.Human-created Capital: technology & productive
facilities
4.Social Capital: networks of civic institutions &
norms
5.Cultural Capital: myths/stories/visions shared by
people
6
Sustainability as an Ethical Standard
 Individualism
vs. interdependence
 Need buy-in by key participants
 Crosses disciplines
 Concept of “multifunctionality” for
sustaining farms
7
Energy Trends--Sustainable?
(1990-2000 annual growth rates)
 Coal
(0%)
60
50
40
WORLD
OIL PRODUCTION
(mil.bls)
30
20
10
0
1990
 Nuclear Power (1%)
70
1970
Power (22%)
 Solar (16%)
 Geothermal (4%)
 Oil Production (2%)
 Hydro Power (2%)
1950
 Wind
8
9
10
The Physics of Energy-Sustainability difficult to maintain
 Energy:
the capacity for doing work
 The First Law of Thermodynamics: the energy
of the universe remains constant (nothing is
destroyed; also known as the Law of
Conservation of Matter & Energy)
 The Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy
always moves toward a maximum (energy
moves from order to disorder; also known as
the Law of Energy Degradation)
11
Entropy & Energy Economics
 Gross
vs. Net Energy
 Economic Reserves
 Exponential Growth
 Irreversibility
 Externalities
12
Exponential Growth:
the 29th Day
“A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of
exponential growth--the apparent suddenness with which
it approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on
which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in
size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked,
it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off
other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily
plant seems small, & so you decide not to worry about
cutting it back until it covers half the pond. On what day
will that be? On the 29th day, of course. You have one day
to save your pond.” (D. Meadows et al, 1972)
13
Exponential Growth & Doubling Time
Growth Rate (%)
0.1
0.5
1.0
4.0
7.0
10.0
Doubling Time (yrs)
700
140
70
18
10
7
14
Energy Reserves--Past Predictions
Reserves
 Meadows
et al estimates of
selected nonrenewable
resource reserves, static vs.
exponential (1972):
– Natural Gas--38-22 years
– Petroleum--31-20 years
– Coal--2300-111 years
 What did Meadows
overlook or underestimate?
OIL
NATURAL
GAS
COAL
1992
1994
2083
time
15
Energy--Policy & Environment to
achieve sustainability
 National
Energy Strategy
 How to achieve
MSC = MSB?
– Market Pollution Permits
– Per unit Pollution Taxes
– Liability & Bonding
Systems for Large
Stationary Polluters
– Fuel Taxes, Options &
Impacts
16
Energy--Transition to Future Fuels
for Sustainability
 Transition
– Increasing costs
– Alternative Fuel &/or
New Technology
 Policy Options
– Research &
Development
– Regulation
– Tax
– Market Incentives
17
Agrarian Evolution & Long Term Thinking
 Process
of agricultural evolution has led to a small
percentage of large farms producing most of sales
in US
– displaced farm labor has moved into non-ag sector
either in rural communities becoming more diversified
or moving to urban areas
 Agricultural
evolution in developing countries
more rapid, more disruptive, more destructive &
harmful
– 40-50% world population lives in urban slums
18
Urban/environmental pressures
increasing
 Low-income
countries face water shortages,
water pollution, air pollution, minimal shelter
shortages, transportation stresses
 Industrialization that is needed to uplift
economies will result in greater stresses on
environment & natural resource base
 1.2-1.3 billion in absolute poverty
 2/3 of world population live on less than $2/day
19
“Market Myopia”?
 Biased
w/short term perspective
 Discount rates favor present & devalue long
term
 Tend to under-value cultural/social costs
20
World Hunger
 AREA
POPULATION
 ASIA
40%
 AFRICA
10%
 L. AMERICA
10%
 EUROPE
25%
 N. AMERICA
10%
 OTHER
5%
FOOD
15%
5%
10%
45%
25%
1%
21
World Hunger (cont.)
Each minute 28 humans die from hunger &
malnutrition
– 21 are children
– Equals a “Hiroshima” every 3 days
 Chronic Malnutrition: 10% of World Population

22
World Hunger (cont.)
2
x Deaths in All Wars Past
150 yrs = Hunger Deaths in
Past 5 yrs
 250,000 infants/small
childrean die each week from
diet-related, “easily”
preventable diseases
 Thousands more--dietrelated blindness & physical
& mental retardation
23
8000 BC
5-10 MIL.
14000
5000 BC
20 MIL
12000
3000 BC
50 MIL.
10000
1400 BC
100 MIL.
0
200 MIL.
1200
400 MIL.
2000
1700
800 MIL.
0
1900
1.5 BIL.
1960
3 BIL.
1996
6 BIL.
2036-50
11-12 BIL???
8000
6000
19
96
00
19
00
12
BC
14
00
BC
00
50
m
il.
BC
4000
3
MILLION HUMANS
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH,
ESTIMATED & PROJECTED
(3 Million BC-2036)
YEAR
24
World Hunger (cont.)
 Not
a food production problem
 Economics--poverty--is the problem
25
World Hunger (cont.)
 Economic
development is the key
 Education is the foundation for economic
development
 But . . .
– What is the carrying capacity of earth?
– What pressures can we expect to worsen?
» Economic?
» Physical?
» Sociopolitical?
26
Poor Countries less efficient in energy
use, thus more wasteful & polluting
 Developed
(relatively wealthy) countries have
decreased CO2/GDP$ emissions 50% in past 30
years
 Low-income countries produce about 5x more
emissions/GDP$ than rich countries
 Example:
1. US co2 emissions/person: 24x India
2. US co2 emissions/GDP$: 1/3 of India levels
27
Poor Countries’ access to clean air/water
result in severe health problems
 Over
1 billion people don’t have access to
safe drinking water
 2 billion don’t have adequate sanitation
 High rates of illness/disabilities
28
Economic Development Argument
 Raise
people out of poverty
 Lower fertility rates
 Increase use of cleaner, less resource-intensive
technologies
 Often destructive to culture
 More sustainable?
– No guarantee that technology will keep up
– tendency for multinational corporate exploitation
– failures of empowerment often occur (especially
w/women), leading to dependency, injustice,
corruption, more exploitation, political destabilization 29
Income Distribution increasingly skewed
 Wealthiest
20% of world population
accounts for 83% of world income
 Poorest 20% account for 1.4% of world
income
 Gap has more than doubled since 1960
 US: Top 1% have as much after tax income
as bottom 100 million people (60%+)
30
Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems
 Rural
poor living in fragile ecosystems
 Ineffective property rights/lack of enforcement
 Concentration of power/lack of accountability
(especially w/multinationals, & non-democratic
governments)
 Trade in waste/toxics
 Trade agreements that weaken environmental
protection
31
Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems (continued)
 Political
power controlling; lack of public access
 Government/corporate control of news media
 Market has a short term perspective
 Tax incentives distort environment/natural
resource management
 Lack of leadershp in fostering ethical vision of
sustainability
 Cultural dysfunction may lead to social problems
32
Alternatives that may lead to sustainable
global situation
 Disaster(s)
cause rapid reduction in population?
 Government intervention?
– incentives
– command & control
– “new world order”
 Free
Market may work?
 Multinationals take over?
33