Transcript working group flash

Overview of Programme of the
Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP
Roberto Barcellan
European Commission - Eurostat
Agenda (1)
 Opening – stating the purpose and format for the
session
 The relevance and utility for official statisticians of the
Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates
 Overview of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates
 A system of rapid estimates: different products for
different purposes
 Rapid estimates for a set of indicators: a dashboard for
short-term economic developments
Agenda (2)
 Minimum quality requirements for rapid estimates:
timeliness, reliability, accuracy, coverage
 Technical issues: (i) the use of hard and soft data; (ii)
statistical and econometric techniques; (iii) revision
policy and rapid estimates
 Creating the culture of rapid estimates
 Alternative to rapid estimates
 Towards a common international approach to rapid
estimates
 Recommendations on Rapid Estimates to the UN
Statistical Commission
1. The relevance and utility for official statisticians
of the Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid
Estimates
 Purpose of rapid estimates
– Early picture of the economic development
 Need to clarify the different typologies of rapid estimates
– Glossary
 Need to have guidelines for the compilation of rapid
estimates
– Handbook
Why a glossary on rapid estimates?
 Confusion in what is a rapid estimate
 Different terms used in relation to an early estimate of
key macroeconomic indicators: nowcasts, flash
estimates, early-advanced-preliminary estimates
 Different contents and purposes associated to the
different typologies of rapid estimate
 Different methodology
Glossary - contents
 Definition
 Purpose
 Methodological considerations (which techniques can be
used)
 Information contents
 Purposes
 Actors (who should compile what)
Why a handbook on rapid estimates?
 No existing international guidance
 Need to adress standards of compilation and reporting
of rapid estimates
 Collecting best practices, harmonising them in the
production framework and derive principles
 Reference compilation guide for newcomers in the
business
 International harmonisation
 For compilers and users
Handbook – Annotated Outline (1)
 1. Introduction
– Definition of rapid estimates, link to the glossary, purposes
of the handbook, general framework and context
 2. Rapid estimates
– Definition of the different typologies of rapid estimates,
their purposes and their characteristics
 3. Methodological aspects and information contents
– Compilation techniques associated to the different
typologies of rapid estimates
– Information input to be used in the compilation of the
different rapid estimates
Handbook – Annotated Outline (2)
 4. Target indicators for rapid estimates
– Identification of the key short-term indicators suitable for
rapid estimates
 5. Rapid estimates in the statistical production process
– Sequence of rapid estimates products and their role in the
production process
 6. Dashboard
– Combination of rapid estimates for indicators for
monitoring the evolution of the economy
 7. Communication and culture
– How to disseminate rapid estimates
Thank you for your attention!