Transcript Document

Energy Context of Civilization
Development: Cycles and Crises
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
The 6TH Civilization Forum
within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development RIO+20
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 13, 2012
Global System “NATURE-SOCIETY-HUMAN”
Solar Energy
Ecosphere
Nature
Ecosystem
Society
Geopolitics
Natural
resources
Economics
Climate
Technologies
Геополитика
Human
Vital Potential
Health
Intelligence
2
Temporal and Spatial Fractality
of Civilization’s Development
That is above, that is below …
T=10-12 years
That was, will be …
5
B
3
1
A
4
2
0
T=36-40 years
Ellyotte’s Fractals
3
Millennial Civilization’s Cycles
Antiquity
Empires
Dark Age
Industrial
Age
Stagnation
Productive (Material) Forces
Trend
Spiritual (Moral) Development
Veda(s)
-2000
Slavery
-1000
Religions
0
1000
Science
Ecology
2000
4
Economics
Wars and
Revolutions
Politics
1917
1
1929 1945
3
1973
1979
5
1991
2000
В
А
4
2008
Revolutions in the Arab world
Debt crisis in the USA, European and
Asian countries
World financial crisis
Beginning of war in Iraq
Dotcom bubble of 2000
Mexico, Asia and the RF
Impulse phase
War in Kuwait, economic crises in
Collapse of the USSR
2nd Oil crisis of 1979 Shah’s Revolution in Iran
Afghanistan War
Ideology crisis in the USSR.
Stock market crisis of 1987
1th Oil crisis of 1973
Vietnam war
Economic Crisis in the USA
Beginning of the Cold War,
Decolonization
IMF, The world becomes bipolar
Development
Creation of the United Nations,
Formation of totalitarian regimes in Europe,
Beginning of the World War II
Beginning of the Great Depression
Formation of the USSR. Demilitarisation
Disintegration of empires. Creation of the League of Nations.
End of the World War I, Civil War in Russia
History of XXth Century: Ellyotte’s Wave
Corrective phase
What’s
?
NEXT ?
С
2
Politics …
2012
5
Global System “Nature-Society-Human” Comes to Limits
of Hyperbolic Growth …
Parameters
value
Information
Energy consumption
Hyperbolic growth of parameters of the
global system “Nature-Society-Human”
Population
XX-XXI
Time
Expensive
human
resources
Possibilities
Level
Macrosocial
transition
Expected macrosocial "transition"
Russia
Cheap
human
resources
Needs
Time
6
Cyclic Crises as Points of Bifurcation for Civilization’s
Development
20
Global primary energy
consumption, bln toe
15
Continuation of the
pre-crisis growth path
Crisis of the
2010th
10
5
Fact
0
1900
Coal
Crisis of the
1970th
Crisis of the
1930th
1925
Inhibition of growth and
stagnation
1950
Oil
1975
2000
Gas &
nuclear
2025
2050
“Electric World” &
Renewables
7
Crisis of the 2010s is the 1st Multidimensional Crisis
in the Globalization Age
Dangerous symptoms of Crisis Resonance
Environmental Crisis
Geopolitical Crisis
Financial and Economic Crisis
Global Energy Security Crisis
8
Dynamics of Natural Catastrophes, 1900-2010
Velocity of the North Magnetic Pole’s Drift
Dynamics of catastrophic Volcano Eruptions
Dynamics of Earthquakes with a magnitude of 8 and higher
Dynamics of catastrophic Tsunami
Source:
The First Report of the International Committee on Issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”, 30.06.2010
9
Tension Growth in World Policy “Fractures”
and Struggle for Resources
Commotions in Arab countries (2010-2011)
• Food Crisis
• Social Crisis
• Economic Crisis
• Energy Crisis
• Institutional Crisis
• Rise of Radical Islamism
Regional Conflicts
Revolution
Resignation of Government
Civil War
Serious unrest
Separate protest actions
Source: Vikipedia
10
“Bubbles” of Virtual Economics and Crisis of State Debts
Total all financial derivatives to World Economic Output,
1987-2010, bln. USD
Finance came off
from reality …
Dynamics of the state debt to GDP ratio, 1980-2010, % of GDP
140
Source: http://www.relfe.com/derivatives.html
120
Франция
France
100
Германия
Germany
80
Italy
Италия
60
Netherlands
Нидерланды
40
20
EU
Еврозона
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2011
2013
2015
"Pyramid" of state debts
becomes uncontrollable …
Spain
Испания
Source: Institute of Energy Strategy on IMF Statistics
11
Global Energy Security Crisis
Oil Sands in
Canada
Renewables in
EU
Non Conventional
Energy Sources in China
Resource globalization gives
way to a regionalization…
Lybia
Shale Gas in the
USA
Oil of the
Middle
East
Heavy Oil in
Venezuela
LNG in
Qatar
Energy
Consumption
Growth in China
Oil Sands in
Canada
Regionalization ‘s factors
LNG in Qatar
Globalization’s factors
Oil extraction on Brazilian
Offshore
High level of energy resources market’s
volatility
Fukushima: new challenge
for technological energy
security
12
What’s next?
Oil: 1930-1970
Nuclear: after 1970
Wind energy
after 2010
New Sources of
Energy after 2030
Coal: before 1930
Gas: after 1970
Solar Energy
after 2010
New Structure of Energy
Flow
(from Power to Smart)
13
“Electric World” as a base
of the Future Global Energy System
 Electricity is the most qualified type of energy consumption
(wide possibilities for using electricity)
 Electric transport is a main part of the infrastructure for the Future
(zero pollutions, independence from oil and gas)
 Energy consumers can be energy producers
(new level of economic efficiency for Energy Sector)
 Possibility of wireless transport of energy
(new level of energy mobility)
 Possibility of energy storage (accumulators, storage batteries)
14
Russia on the Future World Energy Map
Trend
Slowing demand
for Russian
energy
Shift of demand
to Asia
End of oil era
Climate policy
New-generation
energy sector
Risk for Russia
Slowing growth of
economy & export
Growing
competition in
Europe
Economic crisis
Requirement for
Russia
Optimization of export
pipeline projects
New export destinations
in Asia
Reduce dependence on
oil exports
New markets
Limited export
opportunities
Irreversible lag for
Modernization and
Russia in energy and innovative development
economy
of Energy Sector
15
The Energy of the Future in our Hands
Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOV
Deputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow