Transcript Overview of climate change impacts – Tanzania

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE & LOW CARBON GROWTH
OPPORTUNITIES IN TANZANIA
Paper prepared for Learning Event on Comprehensive Climate
Change Planning
Global Best Practices
Namibia, 10th October, 2011
By: Eng. Ngosi C.X. Mwihava
Deputy Permanent Secretary,Vice President’s Office
United Republic of Tanzania
Outline
 Introduction
 Overview of climate change impacts in
Tanzania
 Potential for low carbon growth in Tanzania
 Initiatives to address climate change in
Tanzania
 Opportunities for low carbon growth in
Tanzania
 Conclusion and recommendations
Introduction
FACTS
 Climate change is the most serious global threat to
sustainable development that needs global efforts
 Tanzania’s economy is very dependent on the climate,
because a large proportion of GDP is associated with
climate sensitive economic activities, e.g. Agriculture,
livestock, fishing, energy, etc.
 Climate variability, i.e. extreme weather events such as
droughts and floods lead to major economic costs in the
country (e.g power rationing, crop failure & declining
yields). Some studies (DFID – SEI,GCAP & DewPoint),
reveal that individual annual events have economic costs in
excess of 1% of GDP, and occur regularly, reducing longterm growth and affecting millions of people and
livelihoods.
Introduction (2)
 Future CC could lead to huge economic costs which could be
equivalent to a further 1 to 2 % of GDP/year by 2030 (DFID
2010).
 There are potential threats from climate change to: coastal zones
(sea-level rise), health, energy supply and demand,
infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and ecosystem
services, with potentially high impacts and economic costs across
these sectors (URT, 2010, DFID 2010).
 The combined effects of current climate vulnerability and future
CC are more likely to constrain Tanzania from achieving key
economic growth, development and poverty reduction targets,
including the planned timetable for achieving middle income
status.
 Tanzania contributes least to the global GHG emissions, but
associated impacts of CC are significantly affecting all sectors of
the economy.
Introduction (3)
 Thus, significant funding is required to address the existing adaptation
deficit, as well to prepare for future climate change.
 An initial estimate of immediate URT’s needs for building adaptive
capacity and enhancing resilience against future CC is US$100 – 150
million per year (DFID 2010). However, conservatively, additional
funding of more than US$500 million per year is needed to address
current climate risks.
 Addressing CC current risks and adaptation deficit; is essential in
reducing future impacts and building resilience to future climate
change.
 The cost of adaptation is expected to increases rapidly in future years.
By 2030, financing needs of up to US$1 billion per year are estimated,
and the figure could be higher for accelerated development.
Overview of climate change impacts –
Tanzania
 As described in the Emissions Gap report, 2010 of UNEP
regarding trend in global GHGs emissions, CC impacts will
continue to affect global and local economic growth –Tanzania
included
Overview of impacts of climate change in Tanzania….Droughts
CC impacts (2)
Death of animals due to droughts
CC impacts. (3)
Water shortage – Women walking long distances in search for
water
CC impacts (4))
Floods (i.e. 2006 in Singida)
CC Impacts (5)
 The intrusion of sea water into
fresh water wells along the
coasts of Bagamoyo, Muheza,
Zanzibar.
 Sea level rise-The inundation
of Maziwe Island in Pangani .
 Malaria is evident in areas
where it was not commonly
found in previous decades
such as some parts of Arusha,
Mbeya Kagera, Iringa and
Kilimanjaro regions and
Lushoto and Amani in Tanga
region .
Mpezi Bagamoyo F/water well
Opportunities for low carbon growth in
Tanzania : Minimize Sources and
increase sinks of Ghg
 Achieving low carbon development will depend on
opportunities from the international community in terms of
finance, technology and capacity building to use alternative,
affordable, reliable and sustainable sources of energy to power
economic development in all sectors.
 The global measure of development is energy use per capita.
Developed countries have higher per capita energy use, and
hence higher development levels but also higher greenhouse
gases emissions which is positively correlated to higher energy
use.
Opportunities (2)
 Therefore, for sustained development to take place in
Tanzania, increased clean, efficient & cost effective energy
use is inevitable.Without support ; temptation to develop
using the dirty path.
 Today, because of the poverty levels, Tanzania’s per capita
GHG emissions is only 0.1tCO2e/capita/year compared
to many countries as shown in the next table.
A comparative chart of Carbon dioxide emissions
amongst some countries and their levels of
development between 1990 and 2004
Country
Total emissions
1990 (MtCO2)
Total
emissions 2004
(MtCO2)
Per capita
emission 1990
(tCO2)
Per capita
emission 2004
(tCO2)
USA
4,818.3
6,045.8
19.3
20.6
China
2,398.9
5,007.1
2.1
3.8
South Africa
331.8
436.8
9.1
9.8
Nigeria
45.3
114.0
0.5
0.9
Tanzania
2.3
4.3
0.1
0.1
Mali
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.0
Burundi
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
OECD
10,055.4
12,137.5
12.0
13.2
LDCs
74.1
146.3
0.2
0.2
Global average
22,702.5
28,982.7
4.3
4.5
Saturday, April 9, 2016
Opportunities for low carbon growth in TZ (3)
 From the table it is clear that Tanzania can only develop by
allowing higher level of emissions. Unless there is massive
support to renewable energy exploitation and clean energy use;
for survival reasons Tanzania may be forces to go the high
carbon growth path.
 Based on inventory accounting, emissions from the energy
system are low mainly due to the very high prevalence of
biomass, accounting for up ~90% of energy consumption in
rural and urban areas.
 The overall assessment of the forestry and agriculture sectors in
Tanzania makes these sectors major carbon sinks thus making
Tanzania a net sink of Greenhouse gases. (Forest cover:
35million ha)
Opportunities for low carbon growth in
Tanzania (4)
 Other Specific opportunities:
 Resource (including energy) utilization efficiency and conservation
particularly in the transport, construction and industry sectors.
 Addressing the challenges low electrification (only 14 of the
population connected to the national grid) by modern
technologies/approaches
 The need for optimum energy mix for the electricity generation,
move from 60% hydro and 40% thermal to at least 39% hydro and
61% thermal, respectively, by 2031.
 Promotion of unexploited renewable energy and clean fossil fuel
resources which can contribute to the sustainable low carbon
economic growth.
Opportunities for low carbon growth –
Energy sector
Resources
Potentials
Developed
Hydro Power
4,700MW, (firm Capacity (3,200)
12% (562 MW)
Natural gas
Songosongo-30mill.m3, Mnazi Bay15mill.m3 several new discoveries
361 MW
Coal
13200 Million Tons (300 Million Tons at
Kiwira Field).
0.04% /annum
Biomass wood
1.8 Billion, m3
2.2% /annum
Biomass
residues
Crop residues= 15Million Tons/annum
Animal droppings=25Million
Tons/annum
Volatile solids of sisal waste= 0.2Million
Tons/annum.
Forest residues=1.1 Million Tons/annum
About 1,000 biogas digester units of
50m3
22.75 MW electricity from steam and
sisal plants.
3.5MW from forest residues.
Opportunities ….. Energy sector
Resources
Potentials
Developed
Wind
Speed 0.9 – 9.9 m/s
129 windmills (8.5kWp)
Feasibility studies on going
Solar
More than 2MWelect.
Geothermal
Approximately 215
W/m2/day
About 650MW
Nuclear
Uranium potential
Not exploited (No studies)
Tidal wave
Indications of potential
Studies are being
undertaken
Studies are being
undertaken.
Opportunities (5)
Energy and Forestry sectors
In a nutshell emerging opportunities include:
 Switching to cleaner fuels in the household sector. Cobenefits include cleaner and modern energy for
cooking particularly for the growing urban
population.
 Integrated forestry management and conservation
including , agroforestry, bioenergy farms, multipurpose forests etc. This will contribute in reduced
emissions.
 CC is an opportunity for technology transfer to developing
countries like Tanzania.
Opportunities...low carbon growth (6)
 The use of REDD will depend on the global architecture;
especially, establishment of a funding window within the Green
Climate Fund for REDD and the adoption of the fund based
mechanism whereby the government and local communities
can benefit from conserving the forests;
 Tanzania is currently preparing the National CC Strategy and
Action Plan; which will include opportunities in areas of
intervention.
 The Cancun Agreement on formulation Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is an opportunity for Tanzania and
development partners to effectively tape. CDM and other
emerging carbon trade mechanisms can be used to advance low
carbon growth strategy.
Initiatives to address climate change in Tanzania
 National Environment Policy (NEP, 1997) & EMA, 2004.
 Preparation of Initial National communications (i.e.
2003), second national communication is still in
progress.
 Undertaken climate change related Technological Needs
Assessment, 2010.
 Preparation of CDM Investor’s Guide, 2004. Currently
being updated.
 Establishment of DNA (2004)-VPO-DOE is the DNA.
 Mainstreaming
Environment
(including
CC)in
MKUKUTA.
Initiatives to address climate change in
Tanzania (2)
 Preparation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action
(NAPA, 2007).
 In-depth Analysis of CC impacts on Agriculture, Health and
Water sectors (compliment to the NAPA) 2009.
 Formulation of a Strategy For Urgent Actions on Land
Degradation and Water Catchments, 2006.
 Established the National Climate Change Steering Committee
(NCCSC) –PS of All sectors & relevant sectors of Zanzibar. (2008)
 Established the National Climate Change Technical Committee
(NCCTC) – Directors. (2008)
 Continuously undertakes awareness raising on climate change to
public, policy and decision makers.
Conclusion and recommendations
 Climate
change presents both challenges and
opportunities for achieving sustainable development
in Tanzania. Tanzania can not address these challenges
without international support.
 Tanzania will need enhanced and accelerated deliverly
of modern energy services so as to be able to sustain
its economic growth and address poverty imperatives.
Achieving this without significantly
increasing
emissions is a challenge to be addressed by Tanzanians
and the international community.
Conclusion and recommendations (2)
 Opportunities for
reduced emissions as Tanzania
aspires for its sustainable development objectives do
exist. However, a more strategic approach is required
to ensure that the concept of low carbon growth
works for Tanzania, particularly increased support
from international community both bilaterally and
from the use of the multilateral approaches under the
Convention (UNFCCC) and adaptation needs of the
local communities.
Conclusion and recommendations (3)
 Even though many sectors present potential opportunity for
mitigation of ghg (e.g.: Energy, Transport, Urban waste
management, Forest and Industry), funding, capacity
building and technology transfer are the pre-requisite for the
maximum exploitation of these potentials for sustainable
development
through, among others, low carbon
development strategy.
 Adaptation remains our priority .
 Low carbon development opportunities need to be
progressive, bringing visible and tangible benefits to the
country as a whole including lower income groups, and not
further entrenching poverty in developing countries like
Tanzania.
THANK YOU!