Transcript Presentation by Prof. Utsa Patnaik

What Lies behind the Food Crisis in
India and the Global South?
Utsa Patnaik,
Centre for Economic Studies and Planning
Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi, India
Chart 1a Sectoral Output and GDP per Head, 1981-2 to
2005-6
Sectoral Output per Head and GDP per Head, 19812 to 2005-6,Rupees in constant 1999-00 prices
30000
25000
GDP
20000
PRIMARY
15000
SECOND
10000
TERTIARY
5000
4
6
03
-
05
-
20
1
00
-
20
8
97
-
20
5
94
-
19
2
91
-
19
9
88
-
19
6
85
-
19
3
19
19
82
-
0
Chart 1b Share of Sectors in GDP, constant 1999-00
values
Sector Shares in GDP, Constant 1999-00 Values
60
40
PRIMARY
30
SECONDARY
TERTIARY
20
10
4
7
06
-
20
1
03
-
20
8
00
-
20
5
97
-
19
2
94
-
19
9
91
-
19
6
88
-
19
3
85
-
19
82
-
0
19
Percent of GDP
50
Chart 2a Annual Growth Rate per decade of
Development and Total Expenditure, 1970-79 to 1990-99
Annual Growth Rates per Decade of Development
and Total Expenditures, %
7
6
5
4
DEV. EXP
3
TOTAL EXP
2
1
0
-1
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
Chart 2b Annual Growth Rate of Spending on Economic
and Social Services by States, 1972-79 to 1990-1999
Annual Growth rates per Decade of Spending on
Economic and Social Services by States 1972 to
1999
12
10
8
ECON. SEVICES
6
SOCIAL SERVCES
4
2
0
1972-79
1980-89
1990-99
Chart 2c Decline in Rural Development Spending,
1985-90 to 2003-4
Rural Develeopment Expenditure and
Infrastructure Expenditure as Percent of NNP
under Economic Reforms
8
Percent of NNP
7
6
5
RDE
4
IFE
3
2
1
0
1985-90
1993-4
1995-6
1997-8
2000-1
2003-4
Chart 3a Unemployment Rates 1993-4 and
2004-5, All-India Rural, Female Workers
Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates, 1993-4 and 20045
100
90
80
70
60
Weekly status
50
Daily Status
40
30
20
10
0
1993-4
2004-5
Chart 3b. Unemployment Rates during 1993-4
and 2004-5, All-India Rural, Male Workers
90
Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates,
1993-4 and 2004-5
80
70
100
Unemployment Rates
60
50
80
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
East
West
Weekly status
North
Daily Status
0
0
1st Qtr
1993-4
2nd Qtr
2004-5
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr
Chart 4a Coconut Price Trend in India compared to
Indonesia and Philippines, 1991 to 2003
Price in US $ per Tonne
250
200
150
INDO NESIA
INDIA
100
50
0
91 993 995 997 999 001 003
9
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
PHILIPPINES
200
180
160
140
120
INDO NESIA
100
INDIA
PHILIPPINES
80
60
40
20
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
0
19
91
Index of Coconut Producer Price, 1991=100
Chart 4b Index of Coconut Price 1991 to 2003, base
1991=100
Chart 4c Price Trend of Pepper 1999-00 to 2004-05
6000
5000
Internation al
Price
4000
Domestic Price
3000
Vietnam M Price
2000
Indonesia M Price
1000
0
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 200400
01
02
03
04
05
Price in US$ per Tonne
Chart 4d Index of Pepper Price 1999-00 to 2004-05 with
base 1999-00 = 100
100
Internation al
Price
80
Domestic Price
60
Vietnam M Price
40
Indonesia M
Price
20
-0
5
04
-0
4
20
03
-0
3
20
02
-0
2
20
01
-0
1
22
00
20
99
-0
0
0
19
Index of Price, 1999-00=100
120
Chart 4e Recent Price Changes, March to December 2008 (Rs. Per
Quintal except Cardamom which is Rs. Per 10 kg)
Price change from March to December 2008
Coconut
Rubber
December
July
March
Cardamom
Coffee
0
5000
10000
15000
Chart 5 Farmer Suicide Rate compared to General
Suicide Rate 2001
Farmer Suicide Rate compared with General
Suicide Rate, Census 2001
Number per 100,000
20
18
16
14
12
Farmer Suicide Rate
10
8
General Suicide Rate
6
4
2
0
Male
Female
Chart 6 Direct, Indirect and Total Demand for
Grain with Rising Income
Chart 7a Decadal average Foodgrains Growth rate
and Population Growth rate, 1981 to 2008
Decade average Foodgrain Output Growth and
Population Growth Rates, 1980-1 to 2007-8
3
Percent per annum
2.5
2
1.5
FG
POP
1
0.5
0
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-08
Chart 7b Foodgrains Output and Availability per Capita, India 1989-90 to
2007-08 in Kilograms per Annum
Foodgrains, Kg. per Capita
(Triennial average in Kg. per Annum)
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
OUTPUT
AVAILABILITY
199192
1994- 199798
95
200001
2003- 200607
04
Note : Output is Net Output = 0.87.5 times Gross Output
Availability = Net Output + Net Imports – Net Addition to Public Stocks. Both variables divided by total population for per capita values. Chart
updated to 2007-08 from Patnaik, 2007b
Chart 7c Change in Protein Intake, Gms per Capita,
2004-5 compared to 1993-4
Change in Protein Intake, Gms. per Capita , 2004-5 compare to
1993-4
Cumulative percent of
Persons
120
100
80
60
Percent of Persons
40
20
0
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Change in Protein Intake
40
60
Chart 7d Output per Capita per annum of Cereals
and Starchy Roots in China, 1988 to 2002, in
Kilograms
Per capita supplies of cereals and starchy roots, China, 19882002 (Kgs)
cereals
starchy roots
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Chart 7e Six most populous Countries in SubSaharan Africa: Index of per Capita Cereals and All
Food staples Output, Base 1979-81 = 100
Six Most Populous Countries : Index of per
Capita Cereals and All Food staples Output, Base
1979-81 = 100
120
100
80
Cereals
60
All Food
40
20
0
1980
1988
1998
Table 1 The Rural Poor as Percent of Rural Population in
India
1973-74
1993-94
2004-05
28th
50th
61st
1. 2400 calories
56
325
790
2. 2200 calories
49
260
700
3. 2400 calories
72
74.5
87
4. 2200 calories
56.4
58.5
69.5
49
206
356
6. Poverty percentage
56.4
37.3
28.3
7. Calorie Intake at OPL
2200
1970
1820
NSS ROUND:
RURAL
Direct Estimate
MPCE, Rs. required for
Percent of persons below
Official Estimate
5. Official poverty line, MPCE, Rs.
Monthly per capita Expenditure,
Rs.
Chart 8a Official and Directly estimated Poverty Lines, All-India
Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5 .
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Official PL
Direct PL
19
19 1983 19
20
73-4 77-8
93-4 04-5
Source: Table 1 lines 1 and 5. Official poverty lines update the cost of a 1973-4 basket while direct poverty
lines apply the official nutrition norm to the current data at each point of time
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Official Poverty
Percentage
Source: Table 1, lines 3 and 6.
-5
20
04
-4
93
19
83
19
77
19
73
19
-8
Direct Poverty
Percentage
-4
Percent of Persons
Chart 8b Official and Directly estimated percent of
Persons in Poverty, All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5,
obtained by applying the respective Poverty Lines
Calorie Intake per day per capita
Chart 8c
Declining Calorie Intake accessible at Official Poverty
Lines, All-India Rural 1973-4 to 2004-5
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Calories at
Official Poverty
Line less 1000
Official Calorie
norm less 1000
19 19 1983 19 20
73-4 77-8
93-4 04-5
Source : Table 1 line 7
Chart 9 Per Capita Cereal Output per Annum in Kg., World 1963 to
2005 ( Five year average centred on specified year)
World Per Capita Cereal Output Kg.
400
350
Kilogram per Annum, Kg.
300
250
200
Per Capita Cereal Kg.
150
100
50
0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2005
Source: FAOSTAT after 1988 and for earlier years various issues, FAO Food Outlook
Chart 10 Use of Corn for Ethanol and declining net Output, USA
Million Tonne
Use of Corn for Ethanol, USA
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Corn Output
Net of Ethanol
use
Ethanol from
Corn
2002-3 2007-8 2008-9
Source: US Department of Agriculture data