CHAPTER 15 Stabilization Policy

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Transcript CHAPTER 15 Stabilization Policy

Stabilization Policy
A PowerPointTutorial
To Accompany
N. Gregory Mankiw
Tutorial written by:
Mannig J. Simidian
B.A. in Economics with Distinction, Duke University
M.P.A., Harvard University Kennedy School of Government
M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management
Chapter Fifteen
To many economists, the case for active government policy is clear
and simple. Recessions are periods of high unemployment, low
incomes, and increased economic hardship. The model of aggregate
demand and aggregate supply shows how shocks to the economy can
cause recessions. It also shows how monetary and fiscal policy can
prevent recessions by responding to these shocks. These economists
consider it wasteful not to use these policy instruments to stabilize the
Other economists are critical of the government’s attempts to stabilize
the economy. These critics argue that the government should take a
hands-off approach to macroeconomic policy. At first, this view might
seem surprising. If our model shows how to prevent or reduce the
severity of recessions, why do these critics want the government to
Fifteen using monetary and fiscal policy for economic stabilization?
Economists distinguish between two types of lags
that are relevant for the conduct of stabilization policy:
the inside lag and the outside lag.
The inside lag is the time between a shock to the economy and the
policy action responding to that shock. This lag arises because it takes
time for policymakers first to recognize that a shock has occurred and
then to put appropriate policies into effect to deal with it.
The outside lag is the time between a policy action and its influence
on the economy. This lag arises because policies do not immediately
influence spending, income, and employment.
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Some policies, called automatic stabilizers, are designed to reduce
lags associated with stabilization policy. Automatic stabilizers are
policies that stimulate or depress the economy when necessary
without any deliberate policy change. For example, the system of
income taxes automatically reduces taxes when the economy goes
into a recession, without any change in the tax laws, because
individuals and corporations pay less tax when their incomes fall.
Similarly, the unemployment insurance and welfare systems
automatically raise transfer payments when the economy moves
into a recession, because more people apply for benefits. One can
view these automatic stabilizers as a type of fiscal policy without
any inside lag.
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As we learned, since policy only affects the economy
after a long lag, successful stabilization requires the ability to predict
future economic conditions.
One way forecasters try to look ahead is with leading indicators. A
leading indicator is a data series that fluctuates in advance of the
economy. A large fall in a leading indicator signals that a recession
is more likely to occur in coming months.
Another way forecasters look ahead is with macroeconometric models,
which have been developed by both government agencies and by
private firms. They seek to predict variables such as unemployment and
inflation and other endogenous variables.
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Nobel laureate Robert Lucas emphasized that people form expectations
of the future. Expectations play a crucial role because they influence
all sorts of economic behavior. Both households and firms decide to
consume and invest based on expectations of future earnings.
These expectations depend on many things, including the policies of
the government. He argues that traditional methods of policy
evaluation such as those that rely on standard macroeconometric
models—do not adequately take into account this impact of policy on
expectations. This criticism of traditional policy evaluation is known as
the Lucas Critique.
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Policy is conducted by rule if policymakers announce in advance how
policy will respond to various situations and commit themselves to
following through on this announcement. Policy is conducted by
discretion if policymakers are free to size up events as they occur and
choose whatever policy the policymakers consider appropriate at the time.
The debate over rules versus discretion is distinct from the debate over
passive versus active policy. Policy can be conducted by rule and yet be
either passive or active.
An active policy rule might specify:
money growth = 3% + (Unemployment Rate – 6%)
This rule tries to stabilize the economy by raising money growth when
the economy is in a recession.
Chapter Fifteen
Opportunistic policymakers take advantage of
an exploitable Phillip’s curve and face naïve voters who
forget the past, are unaware of the policymakers’
incentives, and do not understand how the economy
works. In particular, politicians don’t take into account the
tradeoff between inflation and unemployment when their
political gain is at stake.
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Policymakers announce in advance the policy they will follow to
influence the expectations of private decision-makers.
But, later, after the private decision-makers have acted on the basis
of their expectations, these policymakers may be tempted to renege
on their announcement.
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1) To encourage investment, the government announces that it will not
tax income from capital. But, after factories are built, the government
is tempted to raise taxes.
2) To encourage research, the government announces that it will give
a temporary monopoly to companies that discover new drugs. But,
after the drugs have been discovered, the government is tempted to
revoke the patent.
3) To encourage hard work, your professor announces that this course
will end with an exam. But, after you studied and learned all the
material, the professor is tempted to cancel the exam so that he or
she won’t have to grade it.
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Monetarists are economists who advocate that the Fed keep the money
supply growing at a steady rate. Monetarists believe that fluctuations in
the money supply are responsible for most large fluctuations in the
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Y Y' Y'' Y
Here we can see that this economy is
growing (LRAS is shifting rightward)
so continued increases in the supply of
money (via +DAD) don’t necessarily
imply increases in inflation.
A second policy rule that economists widely advocate is nominal
GDP targeting. Under this rule, the Fed announces a planned path
for nominal GDP. If nominal GDP rises above the target, the Fed
reduces money growth to dampen aggregate demand. If it falls
below the target, the Fed raises money growth to stimulate aggregate
Because a nominal GDP target allows monetary policy to adjust to
changes in the velocity of money, most economists believe it would
lead to greater stability in output and prices than a monetarist policy
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In the late 80s, many of the world’s central banks adopted some
form of inflation targeting. Sometimes inflation targeting takes the
form of central bank announcing its policy intentions.
The Federal Reserve has not adopted an explicit policy of inflation
targeting (although some commentators have suggested that it is,
implicitly, targeting inflation at about 2 percent).
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We have looked at whether policy should take an active or
passive role in responding to fluctuations in the economy, and
whether policy should be conducted by rule or discretion.
Although there is persistent debate between both sides, there is
one clear conclusion: no simple and compelling case
for any particular view of macroeconomic policy has been made.
In the end, one must weigh the various political and economic
arguments and decide what role the government should play in
stabilizing the economy.
Chapter Fifteen
Inside and Outside lags
Automatic Stabilizers
Lucas critique
Political business cycle
Time Consistency
Inflation Targeting
Chapter Fifteen