Jim-McGrath-wo

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Transcript Jim-McGrath-wo

Global Trade, Local Impacts, Who
Benefits? Who Pays?
Jim McGrath
Port of Oakland
WHY AM I HERE?
• The Port of Oakland has completed a
marine terminal expansion project with
community support
• That effort included a large community
park and an air quality mitigation program
• The communities were involved in
designing the program
LIFE IN THE FOOD CHAIN
TRADE AT THE INTERNATIONAL
SCALE
• Emerging economies, e.g. China and India
are doing well, growing at 12%/year
• China is our largest trade partner, 3 times
the volume of Japan, and growing at 18%
this year
• GDP is growing faster than population
• Growth by non-participants much lower—
2% for Africa
TRADE CAN ADD VALUE
• Primary commodities 38% of value in 1960,
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12% in 2001
Manufactured goods 12% of value in 1960, 65%
of value in 2001
Income distribution determines the net value to
developing countries, but growing GDP faster
than population helps
It’s in our interest for our trade partners to have
some “skin in the game”
NATIONAL TRENDS
• Shipped goods are increasing in value in GDP—
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13% in 1970, 30% in 1996
Value of shipped goods $1.85 trillion in 2002
19.7 million TEU’s exported in 2002
1.4 million direct jobs
Nearly $200 billion in tax revenues
The tariff alone generates $20+ billion/year
CALIFORNIA TRENDS
• Imports and exports valued at $329 billion in
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2003
Waterborne commerce accounts for 2/3 of that
value
Customs revenue about $6 billion
Total container traffic about 11.3 million TEU’s
– LA—4.9 million TEU’s
– LB—4.6 million TEU’s
– Oakland—1.9 million TEU’s
WHAT ABOUT AIR POLLUTION?
• Diesel emissions really matter—but are regional
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in nature, both in generation and dispersal
For South Coast, ships are about 3% of
anthropogenic PM 2.5
South Coast Port’s account for 10% of truck
traffic
Commercial-Industrial sources twice as large as
heavy duty trucks
Oakland emissions about 0.5% of Bay area’s
pm, less than 5% of truck activity
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
• Technology is here for clean diesel for new
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power plants
Retrofit is difficult because the best technology
relies on integrated, computerized engine
controls—but 25% reductions are feasible
Retrofit technology is not here for large marine
engines—yet
Accelerated turnover of inventory is the best bet
for human health, greenhouse gas benefits
Lower sulfur fuels lower particulate emissions
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?
• Require retrofits of existing diesel engines (CARB has a
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number of regulations in process)—perhaps a $2 billion
issue
Provide incentives for those who go farther and faster
(Diesel Collaborative, Port mitigation fees)
Look at ways to make the logistics more efficient (roll
through gates)
Ratify MARPOL, establish a SECA for West Coast or US
Invest in demonstration projects to push technology
SHOULD USER FEES BE TRIED?
• What do you think the tariff is?
• Needs to pass a nexus and
reasonableness test
• Fees tied to diesel fuel would represent
85% of the PM source, but would that be
feasible politically?
CONGESTION IS THE NEXT
BATTLEGROUND
• Congested roadways are bad for air quality, and
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don’t seem to be significant disincentives to
travel
Day congestion is costing shippers, and night
hours might be the eventual market response
Cargo increases cannot continue to go through
LA/LB without investment in infrastructure
Infrastructure investment will not happen unless
collaborative methods are used and quality of
life issues are addressed
TAKE HOME MESSAGES
• International Trade has resulted in wealth in
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other countries—they now have an interest in
our economic growth—”skin in the game”
There are probably enough taxes generated—
the issue is what is done with them
No easy fixes for diesel emissions—we have to
clean up a lot of engines—but the annual tariff
in California is sufficient to do so
Communities, and shipping companies, are both
stakeholders that must be engaged to help craft
solutions