Transcript New EU members

Economies on Transition:
At the Crossroads of
Development
Olga Gassan-zade
Center for Clean Air Policy, Ukraine
SB-18, Bonn, June 9
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EITs in the UNFCCC context
Annex-I
 New EU members
 FSU
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» Russia
» Ukraine
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
 Candidate countries
» Romania
» Bulgaria
» Croatia
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Differences in EITs
Regional affiliations
 Political history
 Level of governance and the rule of law
 Development of institutions
 Investment climate
 Attractiveness for KP mechanisms
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Per Capita FDI, 2000
450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
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New EU and Candidate Countries
Driven by accession
 History of private entrepreneurship
 Strong market and public institutions
 Active foreign engagement
 Diversification of GDP
 Previous experience with JI/AIJ
 Emissions trading as part of EU ETS
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Russia and Ukraine
Strategic focus in heavy industry
 Competitive advantage in labor and
energy-intensive industries
 Driven by domestic rather than by
foreign investment
 Gross inefficiencies in energy and
industrial sectors (Ukraine: $15-16 bln)
 Lukewarm history with JI
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Energy and Carbon Intensity in EITs, 1998
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Source: Frankhauser, S. and Lavric, L. The investment climate for climate investment: Joint Implementation in Transition
Industry Value Added in GDP
45
EU
Ukraine
40
Russia
Poland
35
Slovenia
Lithuania
30
Slovakia
25
Latvia
20
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
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Conclusions
The candidate countries appear best
positioned to participate in JI
 New EU countries will be part of EU ETS
 Russia and Ukraine will not see the
amounts of investment they need to
change the situation in their industries,
energy and carbon intensities are rising
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Thoughts for the Future
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No reason to expect significant change in
institutional development in Russia/Ukraine
 Climate change is not a priority in
Russia/Ukraine
 If we fail to demonstrate that Kyoto can be a
success this time there’ll be no case for the
future.
» Sustainable development
» Good governance
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