Transcript Beyond Kyoto - Capacity Development for the CDM

Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa
Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON
Director
African CDM Training workshop and preparatory meeting for UNFCCC
COP 9
20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Energy & Development Research Centre
University of Cape Town
Global Trends in Climate Change Debate
 Different developmental status –strongly linked to
cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the
problem
 Sharing of climate change burden
 Who should pay and amount?
 Who should receive the payment?
 Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1
differs
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Mitigation
Adaptation
In-action
Multiple dividends
Penalties
North – South Perspectives
 North Issues

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

Emissions reduction
Cost –Effectiveness
Cost of Mitigation
R&D & Technology
Diffusion
 North Strategies
 Emissions
Trading/JI/CDM/
 Carbon Tax
 Corporate Sector
participation
 Technology
Cooperation
 South Issues
 Development is
Priority
 Precautionary
Principle
 Equity concerns
 South Strategies
 DevelopmentClimate change links
 Capacity building
 Technology transfer
 Vulnerability&
Adaptation
Specific African Issues with link to CC
 Poverty reduction
 Worsening environmental problems
 Lowest user of modern energy services
 Extremely weak negotiating capacities
 Low GHG emitter
 Poor and weak integration among institutions
 Links between analytical and decision making
improving but needs attention
Comparing AI and NAI emissions
ANNUAL EMISSIONS, 1998
Non-Annex I: 43%
Annex I: 57%
Data source: CDIAC, analysis by EDRC students
CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 1900- 1999
Non-Annex I: 19%
Annex I: 81%
Total CO2 emission from fuel combustion, 2000
African total
DR Congo
Ghana
South Africa
Brazil
India
China
UK
Russia
Germany
USA
0
Source: IEA 2002
1000
2000
3000
MtCO2
4000
5000
6000
Outlook for the future
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons
(from 2010 linear growth estimation)
40
35
30
global
25
20
developed countries
15
10
5
0
1990
developing countries
1995
2000
2005
2010
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons
(from 2010 linear growth estimation)
6000.0
5000.0
global
4000.0
3000.0
developed countries
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
2000
developing countries
2020
2040
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
2060
2080
2100
Key Elements in Designing Future Commitments
 Environmental Integrity
Overall emissions cap – share of emissions by
regions
 Equity
Burden sharing (linked to emissions per regioncountry –capita
Developmental status
 Economic /Technological Feasibility and Efficiency
Technological development
 Linkage to the economic development
Emissions trading for efficiency
A variety of different approaches
 Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term
vision and global by design
 Per capita
 Brazilian proposal
 Full extension of Kyoto
 Others are bottom-up, focus on short-term steps
 Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be
global?
 Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive
sectors
 used for EU and research on global extension
 Multi-stage approaches
 Sectoral CDM / SD-PAMs
 The challenge: can we find ‘a logical, top-down and longterm resolution that is expected to be practised in a
bottom up regime
Per capita allocations
 Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing
burden, start from entitlement of each person
 Equal right of each person to use the
atmosphere (global commons)
 Linked to IET could give
many DCs large allowances
 National circumstances
 resource endowment
Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person)
 Contraction & Convergence one example
 Contract to limit global
GHG emissions
30
 Converge on equal
25
per capita emissions
Annex I
Global total
Non-Annex I
20
15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Brazilian proposal
 NEED MORE FROM THE OFFICAL PROPOSAL
 Share emission reductions based on relative
responsibility for global temperature increase (ΔT)
 Complex calculations back to concentrations and
emissions
 Originally applied only to Annex I
 But since considered extension
 Only approach officially proposed to UNFCCC Parties
• Only energy CO2, no deforestation, other gases?
Emissions intensity
 Major part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDP
 Fixed emission targets generate risk:
 Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth,
harms environmental effectiveness
 Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-thanexpected economic growth, could result in non-compliance
 Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP
(CO2-eq / $)
 Not the same emissions intensity for all DCs
 But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each
country’s own emissions intensity ?
 Not inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocation
 Depends on stringency of both
Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)
 Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below
1990 levels
 Grandfathers emissions by country
 Sets absolute number of tons of GHG emissions
 Possibility to join Annex I by
1. Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)
2. Decision by the COP to amend Annex I
 Advantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KP
 Building on existing instruments
 Flexible mechanisms
 Reporting and monitoring system
 But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?
SD-PAMs

Sustainable development policies and measures

Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by
SD, but that also achieve some ERs
 Outline development objectives and identify more
sustainable path
 Quantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissions
 Report under National Communications or FCCC registry

Key issues
 Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention
Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10
 Establishing national baseline emissions
 Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM
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Under FCCC, no new agreement needed

Can happen in parallel and may be a useful transition process
Possible corridors to stabilization
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions (GtC)
14
13
12
550
11
10
9
8
7
450
6
5
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source of stabilization paths: IPCC WGIII chapter 2, post SRES scenarios, CO2 only
2030
2040
Multi-stage approaches

Current strong division AI / NAI:
 Incentive to join Annex I – emissions trading
 Disincentive: G77 solidarity

C&C requires all DCs to join at once
 49 LDCs together add 0.5 % of annual global CO2

Multiple stages
 Annex I countries continue with emission reduction
commitments
 Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.
 No commitment
 Reduce emission intensity
 Stabilise emissions
 Share in emission reductions (den Elzen 2002)
Triggers
 Particular years
 Thresholds
 E.g. GDP / cap
 E.g. Emissions per capita

Source: Hoehne presentation, Ecofys
Equity as a Principle
 Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change
(mitigation costs)
 Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (adaptation
costs)
 Fair process of agreeing internationally how to determine costs
 Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the long-term and in
a transition phase
 Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3
 Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’
 Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability,
poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of
fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding
outcomes”
 ‘Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”
World Primary Energy Supply
(Mtoe)
Mtoe
16000
14000
12000
10000
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other Renew ables
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1971
1997
Source: WEO, 2001
2010
2020
Gas CHP
Gas Combined Cycle
CHP
0
Coal
oalgasification/steam
turbine
Clean Coal fired
steam
Coal-firedturbine
CO2 Emissions
kgCO2/MWh
Comparison of CO2 Emissions in Fossil Fuel Plants
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Series1
100
Efficiency and CO2 Emissions and Power Plants
1400
IGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
PFBC -Pulverised Fuel Combustion
1200
COAL
1000
CO2 emissions, kg/MWh
Steam Turbine
PFBC
800
OIL
IGCC
Coal
Oil
Diesel enfine
600
Natural Gas
Fuel Cell
NATURAL
GAS
Gas Turbine
Diesel engine
&Steam Turbine
400
Gas engine
Fuel Cell
Gas Turbine
& Steam Turbine
200
Fuel Cell
0
30
40
50
Efficiency(%)
60
70
New Options
• Natural gas fired combined cycles are preffered
because of low costs, high efficiency, low
environmental impacts
• Co-generation is cost-effective especially when used
in the form of gas turbines and combined cycles
• Fuel cells for small power generation
• Coal gasification can lead to power production
integrated gasifier combined cycles (IGCC)
• Use of Renewable Energy Technologies
• Promotion of energy efficiency
Elements of Technology Protocol
• Technology transfer incentives – High quality
energy technologies
• Agreement on reducing energy intensity – energy
use per product
– A converging range
– Time allowance
– Sector dependent
• Agreement on overall efficiency per sector (range)
• Agreement on dematerialization trends (range)
• Agreement on fuel efficiency
Critical Issues for Energy Development in Africa
 Linking global and local environmental issues
 Search for win-win solutions
 Search for trade-offs
 Substantial increase in energy access
 Abundant reserves
 Search for technologies
 Search for investments
 Energy security
 Control outside interests
 Linking to environmental security
Energy & Development Research Centre
University of Cape Town,