Transcript Document

Albanian Economy in the BoA
Annual Report. Explanation of
Structure and concrete data.
lecture of
Prof. Dr. Shkelqim Cani
Bank of Albania Governor
Shkoder, 09 Prill 2004
www.bankofalbania.org email:[email protected]
Table of Content:
 World Economy
- Economic-financial developments and % of interest
- Region economies
 Albanian economy
-
Overall product by producing sectors
Labour market
Fiscal sector developments
Inflation developments and monetary policy
Balance of payments
Foreign exchange reserve and its management
Banking system performance
Why this content:
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Bank of Albania Annual Report,
2003
World Economy
-
-
Euro is appreciated against American dollar by 21%. The effects
are felt even in the Albanian economy.
ECB’s and Fed’s monetary policy are smoothing, base interest
rates of euro are reduced by (2%) and dollar by (1%).
European economy has a lower growth rate than that of America,
respectively 0.4 and 3.1 %.
Region economy has satisfactory growth rates (about 4 %).
We highlight:
Insecurities created from the War in Iraq
Non-real price rise in capital markets of USA.
Obvious effects provided by SARS epidemic.
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Development by sectors
-Services sector’s weight in GDP is increased (46.1 %)
-Agriculture contribution to economic growth has declined
( 24.7 %)
-Industrial output is increased, occupying 10.2 % of GDP.
-Construction is one of the most dynamic sectors of
economy (over 20% growth).
-Modest growth (3 %) of investments in transport.
-Domestic savings areLeksion
increased
by 1 %. (4 % of GDP).
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Some indicators of Albanian economy over
8 last years
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Real GDP growth (in %)
9.1
- 10,3
12.7
8,9
7,7
6,5
4,7
6,0
GDP (at current prices, in
millions of Leks)
315,835
333,071
425,356
488,611
551,282
590,237
658,062
744,974
GDP (at current prices in
millions of USD)
322,3
2236,9
2824,4
3548,4
3336,3
4113,7
4695,4
6,027,3
GDP (in USD per capita)
920,6
672,9
842,1
1052,0
1128,0
1332,6
1521,0
1934,9
Unemployment rate
12,4
14,9
17,8
18,0
16,9
14,6
15,8
15,0
Inflation rate (y/y)
17,4
42,1
8,7
-1,0
4,2
3,5
2,1
3,3
Budget deficit (without
grants, in % of GDP)
30,7
36,2
36,2
37,4
42,6
39,5
38,8
38,0
Current account (without
official transfers, in % of
GDP)
-3,6
-12,2
-7,1
-7,9
-7,4
-6,2
-9,0
-6,7
Foreign debt (in % of GDP)
29,2
35,6
36,9
32,3
31,8
28,2
24,4
23,3
Average Lek/USD
exchange rate
104,5
148,9
158,6
137,7
143,7
143,5
140,1
121,9
Performance of savings and
investments
10.0
20.0
15.0
5.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
Kursime te brendshme
2001
2002
Investime
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Kursimet e huaja
(% e PBB-së)
Kursim-Investime
(% e PBB-së)
25.0
2003
Kursimet e huaja
7
Fiscal Sector Developments
Fiscal indicators 1994 – 2003 (in billions of Leks)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
(20)
(40)
(60)
1994
1995
1996
1997
TOTALI TE ARDHURAVE
1998
1999
2000
2001
TOTALI I SHPENZIMEVE
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2002
2003
DEFIÇITI
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Budget Deficit
Budget financing in 2003 (in millions of Leks)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Dhjetor
Nëntor
Tetor
Shtator
Gusht
Korrik
Qershor
Maj
Prill
Mars
Shkurt
Janar
Brendshem
I Huaj
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Annual inflation as of December 2003 resulted to 3.3 %,
i.e within the Bank of Albania 2- 4 per cent targeted
band.
This inflation level has provided a positive contribution
to Albanian economy development.
Main impact was given by the group of “Foodstuff and
non-alcoholic beverages”, energy (May) and telephony
(December)
Developments of monetary indicators (net international
reserve, net domestic assets, net domestic credit to
government) according to forecasts.
Appreciating trend of Lek against Euro and dollar,
particularly during Leksion
thei Guvernatorit
second
half of the year.
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Annual inflation (in %)
10%
8%
Inflacio ni vjeto r
Kufiri i po shtëm 2%
Kufiri i sipërm 4%
M esatarja rrëshqitëse (vjeto re)
6%
4%
2%
0%
12-1999
-2%
06-2000
12-2000
06-2001
12-2001
06-2002
12-2002
06-2003
12-2003
-4%
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Factors having impacted on
inflation performance
 Budget expenditure and budget deficit
 Monetary policy and developments in monetary
indicators
 Exchange rate performance
 War in Iraq
 Agriculture sector
 Raw material cost rise
 Imported inflation
- effective campaign on preventing and smoothing the speculative
price rise.
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Exchange rate performance
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Balance of payments
Deficiti korent
PPB
Deficiti korent ndaj PBB (%)
2003
2002
2001
4,575
2000
1999
3,575
2,575
10.0
1996
8.0
1998
6.0
1997
1,575
4.0
575
2.0
-425
0.0
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ne përqindje
në milionë dollarë
12.0
5,575

Monetary Developments and
Markets
Performance of new credit
in years, in billions of Leks
2001
2002
2003
Short-term loans
27,6
44,7
63,1
Mid-term loans
10,4
13,0
22,2
Long-term loans
2,6
4,8
7,4
Public sector
0,5
0,06
0,04
Private sector
40,1
62,5
92,6
Lek
10,0
20,8
30,8
Foreign currency
30,6
41,8
61,8
New credit (in billions of
Leks)
40,6
62,6
92,6
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Banking system developments
 Banking system enumerates 15 banks at year

-
end 2003. Following February 2004, there are
16 banks.
Banking system profit is Lek 4.5 billion.
Depositing activity is increased by Lek 42.5
billion or 14.7 %. Public confidence in banks is
increased.
Lending activity – credit was increased by Lek
12 billion.
The new credit was Lek 92.6 billion (about USD
900 million, or 48 % more than in 2002)
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Real and nominal 12-month Lek time
deposit interests
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Interest rates on credit extended in foreign
currency
Interest rate
weighted aver. int. of USD credit
12/2/04
11/2/04
10/2/04
9/2/04
8/2/04
7/2/04
6/2/04
5/2/04
4/2/04
3/2/04
2/2/04
1/2/04
11.00%
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
weighted aver. int. of Euro credit
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Banking Supervision
 Licensing and regulatory framework
- Credins Bank is granted the definitive license
- Popular Bank is granted the preliminary license
- American Bank of Albania (permit to establish a branch in Greece)
- Increasing the number of non-bank entities with two other entities.
- The number of Savings and Credit Associations was increased by
20 new associations. - Establishment of a Representation Office of
Pugliese Bank in Tirana
 Savings Bank’s privatization by the well-known Raiffeisen Bank is
expected to raise banking competition, provide new services to
customers, restart lending activity and increase Banking system
efficiency.
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Banking system performance
Banks
No. of
branches
1. Italian Albanian Bankl
2. Savings Bank
3. United Bank of Albania
14
No of agencies
Paid in capital/
total balance
(%)
Total deposits /
Total balance
(%)
Total loans /
Total balance
(%)
Treasury bills in
% to banking
system
3
10.0
84.6
37.7
1.6
83
0.0
94.9
0.3
76.1
50.0
51.8
15.5
0.0
91.6
17.9
0.0
0.0
2
4. Dardania Bank
5. National Commercial Bank
15
1
5.6
91.8
8.5
10.4
6. Tirana Bank
12
2
5.9
86.3
27.1
4.7
7. International Commercial Bank
1
40.0
63.0
44.7
0.2
8. American Bank of Albania
4
6.3
87.3
22.3
2.8
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Banking system performance
Paid in capital/
total balance
(%)
Total deposits /
Total balance
(%)
Total loans /
Total balance
(%)
Treasury bills in
% to banking
system
5.0
86.8
44.9
1.6
38.6
56.6
57.4
0.3
15.5
86.6
22.6
0.8
5.2
54.7
47.2
1.6
13. First Investmetn Bank –Tirana Branch
36.8
16.1
1.2
0.0
14. Credit Bank of Albania
81.1
37.9
0.0
0.0
19.5
77.3
31.3
0.0
Banks
9.Procredit Bank
No. of
branches
No. of agencies
12
10. Commercial Bank of Greece (Albania)
11. Branch of National Bank of Greece in Tirana
12. Branch of Alpha Bank in Tirana
15. Credins Bank
4
7
1
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Developments in Payment System
 During 2003 the system of the new accounting project,





ATM for upgrading the Bank of Albania operations was
implemented.
Albanian Interbank Payment System.
Transactions in real time, 2 seconds at maximum.
94 payments effected during the first day, at the value of
48 million dollars.
12 banks in the system. The entry of two new banks is
expected.
Benefiting businessmen and public as well.
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Other Bank of Albania activities
 Strategy of the Bank of Albania’s integration to the




system of European Central Banks.
Cooperation with other institutions to reduce cash in
economy
Campaign against speculative price rise at the threshold
of end-year celebrations.
Fourth international conference of the Bank of Albania.
Campaign to increase public confidence on the
advantages of Savings Bank’s privatization.
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The End
 Thank you for your attention!
 You are invited to make questions!
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