Global Equities 2004-2006 Strategic Planning Research

Download Report

Transcript Global Equities 2004-2006 Strategic Planning Research

Warum sind die Zinsen so niedrig?
Thomas Mayer
(+44) 20 7547 2884
April 2005
IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE
END OF THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT. DEUTSCHE BANK DOES AND SEEKS TO DO BUSINESS WITH ISSUERS
COVERED IN ITS REPORTS. AS A RESULT INVESTORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT DEUTSCHE BANK MAY HAVE
A CONFLICT OF INTEREST THAT COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT THE OBJECTIVITY OF ITS REPORTS.
INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT ONLY AS A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVEST-MENT
DECISION.
Übersicht
2

“Emerging markets” wandeln sich ab 1998 von internationalen
Kapitalimporteuren zu Kapitalexporteuren

Investitionseinbruch von 2002 reduziert die internationale Kapitalnachfrage der Industrieländer

Ex-ante internationales Überschussangebot an Ersparnis schürt
Deflationsängste und drückt Leit- und Marktzinsen

Sinkende Zinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und stimulieren den
Konsum

Im Markt verbleibende Überschussliquidität und “moral hazard”
verzögern die Zinsanpassung an den weltweiten Konjunkturaufschwung
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis
auf
Leistungsbilanz
Emerging markets
350
300
250
200
USD
bn
current account balance
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
3
Changes in current account balances (2004-95/97)
bn USD
2004 1995-97 change
United States
-631.3
-119.5
-511.8
Japan
159.4
91.2
68.2
Euro area
72.2
76.0
-3.8
United Kingdom
-43.3
-8.9
-34.4
C.&E. Europe
-44.2
-15.4
-28.8
CIS
61.4
-2.0
63.4
Middle East
103.5
6.3
97.2
Western Hemisphere
9.0
-48.3
57.3
NIC Asia
85.0
2.1
82.9
Developing Asia
68.8
-23.2
92.0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis
auf
Spar- und Investitionsquoten
Emerging markets
33
32
% of
GD P
31
s a vin g
30
in ve s tm e n t
29
28
27
26
25
24
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Changes in savings and investment ratios (2004-95/97)
Saving
Investment S-I
United States
-2.7
0.4
-3.1
Japan
-3.0
-4.5
1.5
Euro area
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
United Kingdom
-1.4
-0.1
-1.3
C.&E. Europe
-1.2
-0.5
-0.7
CIS
6.1
-2.2
8.4
Middle East
4.9
0.0
4.9
Western Hemisphere
1.9
-1.6
3.4
NIC Asia
-2.1
-8.1
6.0
Developing Asia
4.7
1.6
3.1
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Data Base
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
4
Kurz darauf brechen die Investitionen in den Industrieländern ein
Ersparnisse in den Emerging
Markets und Investitionen in den
Industrieländern
33
32
% of
GD P
% o f GD P
Weltinvestitionsquote und
“Weltrealzins”
23
22
31
5
25
%
% of GDP
4.5
24.5
4
30
21
29
24
3.5
23.5
3
28
20
23
2.5
27
22.5
2
26
e m e rg in g m a rke ts s a vin g (lh s )
in d u s tria l co u n try in ve s tm e n t
25
19
18
24
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US real 10y bond y ields (lhs )
W orld inves tm ent ratio
1.5
1
21.5
1995
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
5
22
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Niedrige Realzinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und
Konsumwachstum
Konsum und Immobilienpreise 2003
OECD 2001-03:
6
real private
consumption 5
% yoy
4
Privater Konsum: 2.2%
New Zealand
Australia
US
3
Canada
UK
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
2 Sw eden
France
Japan
Denmark Italy
1
Sw itzerland
% yoy
0
Germany
house prices
-1
Netherlands
-2
-10
6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Investitionen:
0.3%
BIP:
1.6%
Unterschiedliche Reaktion auf den Zinsrückgang…
Heimische Nachfrage
6
% yoy
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
US
-2
Japan
-3
Euroland
-4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
7
2004
…führt zu Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichten
US nationale Ersparnis fällt stärker als Investition
% of GDP
22.0
20.0
18.0
current account
balance
Gross saving
16.0
Gross investment
14.0
12.0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Source: OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research
8
Die Unternehmen haben die Niedrigzinsphase zur
Stärkung ihrer Bilanzen genutzt
Unternehmensverschuldung in den G3
63
100
% of
GDP
95
58
53
90
Euroland
Japan
48
9
85
US (rhs)
43
80
38
1997
75
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Gute Gewinne und starke Bilanzen stimulieren die
Investitionskonjunktur, doch Zinsen bleiben niedrig…
G3: BIP Wachstum, Nachfragekomponenten & Zinsen
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Real 10Y bond yields,
G3 average (rhs* )
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
G3 GDP growth (lhs)
G3 gross fixed
capital formation
(lhs)
% yoy
1996
10
4.5
4.0
1998
2000
2002
2004
Forecast
%
2006
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
…u.a. wegen hoher Liquiditätsversorgung und geringer
Risikosensitivität
5.0
Data for the US, Japan, Canada Euroland and the UK
4.5
Real GDP grow th (lhs)
4.0
Real money grow th (rhs)
7
6
5
3.5
4
3.0
3
2.5
2
2.0
1.5
1.0
1986
% yoy, 2-year
moving average
1
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
11
Die Zentralbanken
haben den Eindruck
vermittelt, dass sie
die Anleger von den
üblichen Risiken
weitgehend entlasten
können (“moral
hazard”).
Die tatsächlichen liegen unter den theoretischen Renditen
DByield: Euroland 10Y rates
9
8
DByield: US 10Y rates
Actual 10Y rates
10
Fitted 10Y rates
9
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
Current
8
7
7
6
6
5
4
5
DByield trading signal:
short
4
3
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
3
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
DByield: UK 10Y rates
DByield: Japan 10Y rates
13
Actual 10Y rates
12
Actual 10Y rates
8
Fitted 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
7
10
Current
6
9
5
8
4
7
3
5
DByield trading signal:
short
4
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
12
9
11
6
DByield trading signal:
short
2
1
Current
DByield trading
signal: short
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Ausblick 2005-06: Robustes Wachstum und steigende Zinsen
Economic Forecast Summary
GDP grow th, %
2004 2005F 2006F
US 4.4
4.1
3.7
Japan 2.6
1.4
2.9
Euroland 1.8
1.6
1.8
Interest Rate Forecast Summary
CPI inflation, %
2004
2.7
0.0
2.1
2005F 2006F
2.5
2.2
0.4
0.8
1.8
1.6
G7
Asia (ex Japan)
EM EA
Latam
3.3
7.9
6.5
6.1
2.8
6.8
5.1
4.4
2.9
6.7
4.3
3.7
2.0
4.4
8.5
6.8
1.8
3.7
7.4
5.8
1.7
3.6
6.4
6.0
Global
4.9
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.9
Central bank rate, %
Current
US
2.50
Japan 0.00
Euroland 2.00
3M
3.25
0.00
2.00
6M
3.75
0.00
2.25
Current
4.51
1.46
3.71
Source: DB Global Markets Research, as of Mar 16
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Source: Various statistical offices, DB Global Markets Research
13
12M
4.50
0.00
2.75
10Y yields, %
3M
4.75
1.70
4.00
6M
5.00
2.10
4.20
12M
5.50
2.50
4.70
CERTIFICATION
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the
undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view
in this report. Thomas Mayer.
For disclosures of our potential conflicts pertaining to analyses, recommendations or estimates made in respect of a
security or issuer mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published issuer report or visit our global
disclosure look-up page on our website at http://equities.research.db.com/cgi-bin/compose?PAGE=HOMEPAGE.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank").
The information herein is believed by Deutsche Bank to be reliable, but Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or
completeness of such information.
Important Information Regarding Our Independence. The research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report
receives compensation that is based upon, among other factors, Deutsche Bank’s overall investment banking and/or trading revenues.
Deutsche Bank may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with this research report, and with respect to securities
covered by this report, will sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis. Disclosures of conflicts of interest, if any, are discussed at
the end of the text of this report or on the Deutsche Bank website at https://gm.db.com/DisclosureList
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not
necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update,
modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection,
forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn.
Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational
purposes only. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to
participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for
all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary
and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other
than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the
financial instrument, and such investor effectively assumes currency risk. In addition, income from an investment may fluctuate and the
price or value of financial instruments described in this report, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Furthermore, past performance
is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor’s home
jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD,
NFA and SIPC. In the United Kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the
London Stock Exchange. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Singapore by Deutsche
Bank AG, Singapore Branch, and in Japan by Deutsche Bank AG Tokyo. Additional information relative to securities, other
financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or
published by any person for any purpose without Deutsche Bank’s prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting. Copyright©
2004 Deutsche Bank AG REV102104
14