Transcript Chapter 7 (Heat Stress, Water Resources

Slides for GGR 314,
Global Warming
Chapter 7: Heat and Water Stress,
Terrestrial Species Extinctions
Course taught by
Danny Harvey
Department of Geography
University of Toronto
Exhibit 7-1: Regions currently with water stress
Source: IPCC AR4 WG2, Chapter 3, Fig. 3.2
Source: Barnett et al. (2005, Nature, Vol. 438, 303-309)
Exhibit 7-2: Ratio of annual snowfall to annual runoff. The red line
outlines the areas where runoff is predominantly from snowmelt and
there is not adequate storage to buffer seasonal variations.
Source: Barnett et al. (2005, Nature, Vol. 438, 303-309)
Exhibit 7-3: Retreat of the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayas
Source: IPCC AR4 WG4, Chapter 10, Fig. 10.6
Exhibit 7-4: Recent retreat of some Himalayan glaciers
Source: IPCC AR4 WG2, Chapter 10
Exhibit 7-5: Projected change in annual river runoff, 2050 compared to
the 1961-1990 average
Source: Arnell et al (2011, Glob. Env. Change, Vol. 21, 592-603)
Exhibit 7-6:
Numbers of
people in different
regions in 2050
experiencing an
increase (top) or
decrease (bottom)
in water stress
(<1000 m3/P/yr)
based on climate
projections by the
same 4 AOGCMs
featured in Exhibit
7-5.
Source: Arnell et al (2011, Glob. Env. Change, Vol. 21, 592-603)
Exhibit 7-7: Projected changes in annual river runoff; links to water
and sustainable development
Source: IPCC AR4 WG2, Chapter 3, Fig. 3.8
Recall: Exhibit 4-5: Projected global mean temperature change for a
business-as-usual scenario compared to variations during the previous
millennium and observed changes during the past 150 years, neglecting likely
positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.
5
Pessimistic Projection
Temperature Deviation (K)
4
Optimistic Projection
3
2
1
Various Inferred
Variations
Observed
0
-1
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Year
Source: Harvey (2010, Energy and The New Reality, Vol 1, Earthscan, Fig. 1.5)
2000
2200
Exhibit 7-8: Distribution of maximum wetbulb temperature (Tw) that
occurred at any time during the decade 1999-2008. The warmest Tw to
have occurred anywhere is about 30oC.
Source: Sherwood and Huber (2010, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Vol. 107, 9552-9555)
Exhibit 7-9: Maximum annual Tw as simulated by an AGCM-ML ocean
model after the global mean temperature has warmed by 10oC relative
to 1999-2008.
Source: Sherwood and Huber (2010, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Vol. 107, 9552-9555)
Exhibit 7-10: Histograms showing the frequencies of different surface air
temperatures for all time steps and grid points (black), maximum surface air
temperatures at all grid points (blue), and maximum Tw values (red) as observed
during the decade 1999-2008 (left) and as simulated after a global mean
warming of 10oC (right). The red dashed curve in the right chart is the Tw
distribution shown in the left chart for the 1999-2008 decade. The vertical dashed
line is the absolute maximum Tw value (35oC) that humans can survive.
Source: Sherwood and Huber (2010, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Vol. 107, 9552-9555)
Exhibit 7-11: Maximum mammal body size was a factor of 1000 smaller than today 70
million years ago, when temperatures were 5-7oC warmer. Cooling over the past 50 million
years (inferred from the data in the lower panel) made it easier to dissipate heat as the
mass of the largest mammals increased during the past 70 million years and the
surface:volume ratio decreased. Mammals about 20 times less massive than the largest
found today survived the PETM 55 million years ago
100
80
60
40
20
Age (millions of years)
Source: Smith et al (2010, Science, Vol. 330, 1216-1219)
0
Exhibit 7-12: Frequency distribution of departures of individual
summers from the 1900-2006 average summer temperature, for the
1900-2006 time period (observed) and as projected for 2080-2100
(frequencies in each case are adjusted to represent 100 summers)
Source: Battisti and Naylor (2009, Science, Vol. 323, 240-244)
Exhibit 7-13: Frequency of summers in 2040-2060 that are warmer
than the warmest summer on record (1900-2006)
Source: Battisti and Naylor (2009, Science, Vol. 323, 240-244)
Exhibit 7-14: Frequency of summers in 2080-2100 that are warmer
than the warmest summer on record (1900-2006)
Source: Battisti and Naylor (2009, Science, Vol. 323, 240-244)
Exhibit 7-15: Average change (oC) in summer temperature in Europe,
as simulated by 6 different high-resolution regional climate models
driven by 3 different AOGCMs, for 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990.
Source: Fischer and Schar (2010, Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, 398-403)
Exhibit 7-16: Ratio of number of heat waves per year in 2021-2050 (left)
and 2071-2100 (right) to the number in 1961-1990 (a heat wave is defined
as a spell of at least 6 consecutive days where the maximum temperature
exceeds the local 90th percentile for the 1961-1990 period).
Source: Fischer and Schar (2010, Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, 398-403)
Exhibit 7-17: Increase in the temperature of heat waves during 20212050 (left) and 2071-2100 (right) compared to heat waves during 19611990.
Source: Fischer and Schar (2010, Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, 398-403)
Exhibit 7-18: Average daily maximum temperature during JJA for the
1961-1990 period (top) and numbers of days per year with maximum
temperature > 35oC and minimum night-time temperature > 25oC
Source: Lelieveld et al. (2012, Climatic Change, in press)
Exhibit 7-19a: Probability distribution of hourly temperature for the
1961-1990 period and as projected for 2010-2039 (orange), 20402069 (red) and 2070-2099 (magenta)
Source: Lelieveld et al. (2012, Climatic Change, in press)
Exhibit 7-19b: Probability distribution of hourly temperature for the
1961-1990 period and as projected for 2010-2039 (orange), 20402069 (red) and 2070-2099 (magenta)
Source: Lelieveld et al. (2012, Climatic Change, in press)
Exhibit 7-20a: Heliotropium convolvulaceum on a Mojave Desert Sand-dune
June 2006
August 2006 following a July heat wave
Photos by R. Sage, University of Toronto
Exhibit 7-20b: Opuntia cacti in the
Mojave Desert
August 2006 following a July heat
wave.
The injury patterns are unusual and
indicate severe stress
Photos by R. Sage, University of Toronto
Exhibit 7-20c: Cacti injured by heat stress
Photos by R. Sage, University of Toronto
Healthy cacti
Photo by R. Sage, University of Toronto
Exhibit 7-21a: Tundra vegetation near
lower elevation limit showing evidence of
dieback in the cushion plant
Eriognomum ovalifolium. White
Mountains, California.
Photo by R. Sage, University of Toronto
Exhibit 7-21b: Healthy
tundra. White Mountains,
California.
Exhibit 7-22: Impact of projected global warming (top) and increasing GDP per
capita (bottom) on the incidence of malaria. Net result: malaria decreases
everywhere
Source: Beguin et al (2011, Glob. Env. Change, Vol. 21, 1209-1214)
Exhibit 7-23: Increase in the incidence of malaria (red) if GDP per
person decreases by 50% (with an unchanged % of GDP devoted to
health and sanitation)
Source: Beguin et al (2011, Glob. Env. Change, Vol. 21, 1209-1214)