data tool & scientific innovation

download report

Transcript data tool & scientific innovation

The ESPON Scientific Platform
Data, tools and scientific innovation
Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB
Overview
•
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
– The vast treasures of the ESPON Database
– Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series
– Possible solution for the future: Long-Term Database and
cartographic techniques
– From data to messages: policy indicators
•
Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone
– ESPON DB and Data Navigator
– WebGIS
– HyperAtlas
•
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research
– Models to analyse the current situation
– Models to simulate and forecast the future
– A general model for territorial impact assessment
•
Looking ahead: Prospective thinking
•
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
The vast treasures of the ESPON Database
• covers 29 countries
29 countries !!!
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
Limits to regional data: Disrupted time series and MAUP
1) Time series interrupted by change in data and region
definitions
2) Modifiable Area Unit Problem:
Results of spatial analyses depend on definition of studied units
An illustration of MAUP: the
variation of Urban-Rural
Typology at different levels of
territorial aggregation (NUTS 2
and NUTS 3) (Project 3.4.3
Proposals:
• new hierarchies of territorial division for research and
strategic policy making
• development of interactive and dynamic cartographic methods
• development of multiscalar methods of analysis
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
Possible solution for the future I: Long-Term Database
Hierarchy of
geographic entities,
names
Definitions of
basic stock
indicators
(population,
area, GDP)
Definitions and
formulas of complex
indicators (pop.
density, GDP/cap)
The actual data
Collection of
estimation
methods for
missing data
Expert
system for
choice of
estimation
method
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
Possible solution for the future II: Innovative cartography
Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
From data to messages: policy indicators
Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone
ESPON DB and Data Navigator
Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone
HyperAtlas and WebGIS
• ESPON HyperAtlas:
Innovative multiscalar
cartography on your
desktop
• ESPON WebGis:
Mapping the ESPON
database online
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research
Models to analyse the state of the system
• Used for the analysis of the situation of the
modelled system in the present or past
• Mostly pre-existing models, adapted to the
specific needs of ESPON research
• Most models concern transport theme:
accessibility, flows, pollution, infrastructures, etc
• Provide complex indicators
• Examples: ICON index, various accessibility
measures, logistic model of IT diffusal, etc.
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research
Models to simulate and forecast the future
• deal with the future, based on different
assumptions => forecast and impact assessment
• Existing models used: SASI, CGEurope, STIMA,
CAPRI, etc
• Some ESPON babies:
• MAcro-economic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial
(MASST) model
• Know Trans-European Networks (KTEN/K10)
• Demographic Cohort-Survial model
• RESSET (accessibility and economic development)
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research
A general model for territorial impact assessment
Multicriteria Model with two main layers:
1) General assessment
GA = Σc θc . PIMc
c = criterion
θc = weight
PIM = general impact
2) Territorial assessment
TIMr = Σc θc . Sr,c . (PIMc . PIr ). Par
r = region
Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c
PI = policy intensity
PA = policy applicability
Looking ahead: Prospective thinking
• Policy making = future-oriented => Applied
scientific results have to respond to this need
• Territorial development = very long-term
• Much of what will happen is out of reach for
« classical » (quantitative) scientific methods
• ESPON provides prospective thinking in the form
of the scenarios
• Thinking beyond the verifiable and imagining the
possible in scientifically informed creative
prospective research
• Permanent process depending on policy goals and
general evolutions
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• If we want evidenced-based policy, we need
solid evidence
• Knowledge grows through controversial discussion
• ESPON
seminars
always very
polite:
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• We just had the first experience of « peer
review » in ESPON
• Can be a frustrating experience for all sides
• Sometimes
it feels like
this:
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• But it advances everyone's knowledge
• So, let's dare some more controversy:
• Have a great seminar !