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STD/PASS/TAGS
STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade
Tradeand
andGlobalisation
GlobalisationStatistics
Statistics
OECDs forthcoming
Economic Globalisation
Publication 2008:
– The trade chapter -
Agenda
Item 10b
EGI 2008 Contribution from
STD’s Globalisation Unit, Trade
and Globalisation Section,
SES/TAGS
Andreas Lindner, Head TAGS
STD/SES/TAGS; 1st WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris
STD/PASS/TAGS
STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade
Tradeand
andGlobalisation
GlobalisationStatistics
Statistics
The context
• As for EGI 2005, several OECD
Directorates contribute to EGI 2008
• STI has overall coordination
• Most important: the selection of indicators
• All Directorates use the same template to
standardise the lay-out of this publication
as horizontal OECD product
• EGI 2008 to be published before end 2008
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STD/PASS/TAGS
STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade
Tradeand
andGlobalisation
GlobalisationStatistics
Statistics
The team:
STD:
• Andreas Lindner (STD coordinator)
• Eun-Pyo Hong
• Florian Eberth
• Bettina Wistrom
• Patrizio Sicari
STI:
• Thomas Hatzichronoglou (EGI coordinator)
• Agnès Cimper (Intra-Industry trade)
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STD/PASS/TAGS
STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade
Tradeand
andGlobalisation
GlobalisationStatistics
Statistics
Trade is one chapter of
EGI 2008
Besides the other chapters on FDI,
Multinationals, FATS etc.,
FDI
MNEs
EGI 2008
Trade
Others..
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
A standard approach and presentation
• One page of analysis
• .. With standadr lay-out containing sources used and links to
Websites in a shaded box at the bottom
• An explanatory box for non-specialists, explaining
– What the indicator measures
– The formular
– Factors to be taken into account when interpreting results
– General strenghts and limitations of the indicator shown
• A standardized graphical presentation
– Covering OECD countries plus Accession countries and
Enhanced Engagement countries (30+5+5= up to 40
countries) wherever possible
– Easy to understand and interpret
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The list of trade indicators (red box)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trade as % of GDP
Trade Balance as % of GDP
World Export Market Shares
World Exp. Market Sh. by Type of Goods
Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in OECD,
Accession c. and Enhanced Engagement countries
Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in Services
Import Penetration of G & S
Merchandise Trade with China and Hong Kong,China
Merchandise Trade with the Rset of World
Intra-Industry Trade
High-Tech Merchandise Trade
Sensitivity of Trade flows to Price and Income Changes
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
…They do tell a story…
• Globalisation affected countries very
differently
• Winners and loosers
• But "grouping patterns" emerge
• Heterogeneity of trends and impact on
countries
• No “one fits all” strategy, rather tailored
analysis and approaches
• Requiring cross-cutting approach for statistics
and indicators development
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
1. Trade (Goods and Services) as % of GDP
Central & East
European countries
become increasingly
integrated into
world economy
OECD Countries
OECD
Accession
Countries
OECD
Enhanced
Engagemen
t Countries
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
…and average growth 2000 - 2006
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
2. OECD Trade Balances as % of GDP
%
- 20
- 15
- 10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006
2000
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
3. World Export Market Shares (G&S) – average
annual growth 2000-2006
-10
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Poland
Hungary
Turkey
Luxembourg
Germany
Austria
Norway
Denmark
Spain
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Korea
Netherlands
Portugal
Australia
Finland
Belgium
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
New Zealand
United Kingdom
France
Mexico
Canada
Japan
United States
Russian Federation
Estonia
Chile
Slovenia
Israel
China
India
Brazil
South Africa
Indonesia
-5
0
5
10
15
%
OECD
Countries
OECD
Accession
Countries
OECD
EEP Countries
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
5. Geographical Distribution of Export Shares
Figure I.5.a.1 Export shares of Goods into EU25, 2006 versus 2000
2006
%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
OECD
Accession
Countries
OECD Countries
2 %
2006
2000
OECD
Enhanced
Engagement
Countries
1
0
Magnified
Figure I.5.a.3 Export shares of Goods into Japan, 2006 versus 2000
2006
%
OECD Countries
35
30
25
20
%
1
2006
2000
2000
OECD
Accession
Countries
OECD
Enhanced
Engagement
Countries
0
15
10
Magnified
5
0
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Geographical Distribution of Export Shares
in Services 2005 versus 2000
EU 25
Japan
2005 2000
2005 2000
United States
United Kingdom
Korea
Germany
France
Australia
Netherlands
Denmark
Canada
Italy
Ireland
Sweden
Hungary
Norway
Spain
Austria
Finland
Greece
Czech Republic
Portugal
Slovak Republic
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
Italy
Netherlands
Japan
Sweden
Denmark
Portugal
Canada
Hungary
Czech Republic
Korea
Australia
30
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
6.1 Import Penetration of Goods and
Services 2006 versus 2000
OECD Countries
OECD
Accession
Countries
OECD
Enhanced
Engagement
Countries
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
7. OECD Merchandise Trade with China
OECD trade with China and Hong
Kong (China) – billion US$
Japanese trade with china and
Hong Kong (China) – billion US$
1000
140
800
120
600
100
400
80
Balance
200
Balance
60
Imports
0
Exports
Imports
40
-200
20
-400
0
-600
-20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
8. OECD Merchandise Trade
with the Rest of the World
OECD trade with Row. –
Billion US $
US trade with Row. –
Billion US $
10000
2000
8000
1500
6000
1000
Balance
4000
Balance
500
Imports
Exports
2000
Imports
0
-500
-2000
-1000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
9.2 Index of Intra-Industry Trade in
Manufactures
Average annual change 2001-2006
2.3
%
2.0
2.8 3.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-5.9
-2.3
-3.2 -3.2 -2.3
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
10 Role of High-Tech Merchandise Trade
% Shares in Total Trade 2000 and 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
United Kingdom
Switzerland
USA
Korea
Finland
Hungary
France
Ireland
Japan
Denmark
OECD
Germany
Netherlands
EU25
OECD
Countries
Mexico
Sweden
Iceland
Austria
Luxembourg
Canada
Czech Republic
Italy
Belgium
Greece
New Zealand
Spain
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Norway
Australia
Poland
Turkey
Slovenia
OECD
Accession
Countries
Israel
Estonia
Accession Countries
Chile
Russian Federation
OECD
Enhanced
Engagement
Countries
China and Hong Kong SAR
EEP countries
Brazil
India
Indonesia
South Africa
2006
2000
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
11. Sensitivity of Trade Flows to Price and
Income Changes
Focus on the 1st Quadrant
The global picture
3.0
Focus: First Quadrant
1.0
2.5
CAN
JPN
KOR
NZL
0.9
US
GRE
2.0
IRL
TUR
MEX
1.5
IV
ISL
AUS
ESP
1.0
NOR
III
LUX
0.7
BEL
ITA
FIN
DNK
0.6
0.5
SWE
UK
DEU
II
PRT
I
NLD
FRA
0.8
AUT
CHE
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
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STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Thank you!
[email protected]
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