Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Scenario, 1st Draft

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Transcript Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Scenario, 1st Draft

Global Environmental Change and
Food Systems (GECAFS)
Scenario Brief: Draft
Adapting Mosaic
Sharon Hutchinson
Natural Resource Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension
Faculty of Science and Agriculture
The University of the West Indies
23 November 2005, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad
Scenario Summary (J’ca)
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Focus on harnessing local skills to improve the quality of local
ecosystems.
Primary management approach will be national (not regional)
Focus on: The Caribbean Sea; forests; demand for energy; demand
for freshwater and coastal zone management.
Development of the CSME fully by 2015.
Community level activism increases.
Increased demand for natural resources, and rising oil prices. Also
growing movement toward developing ecotourism as a viable
economic activity.
Agricultural systems increase in productivity.
Regional agro-environmental policies are formed.
By 2050, sustainability increases and the food system will be more
resilient.
Key Global & Regional Changes
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Reduction in freshwater quantity
Decline in freshwater quality
Reduction in sufficient access to food
Significant rise in temperature
Low growth in per capita GDP
Impact on Caribbean Food Systems
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Food availability
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Production: will fall due to a decline in water
quality and quantity
Distribution: will fall. Some markets will not get
some commodities for sale
Exchange: unchanged.
Impact on Caribbean Food Systems
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Food access
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Affordability: will fall due to increases in food
prices. A rise in agricultural productivity does not
outweigh the negative effects of an increase in
global temperature.
Allocation: will fall due to a rise in inequity. Food
consumption patterns changes to cheaper (and
probably less healthy) foods.
Preference: mixed effects. Changes over time
based on new consumption patterns.
Impact on Caribbean Food Systems
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Food utilization
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Nutritional value: will fall.
Social value: unchanged.
Food safety: unchanged.
Impact on Caribbean Food Systems
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Increased competition for land seen throughout the
Caribbean today, especially from tourism and
housing, will boost the local price for land (which will
push food prices up)
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Trade liberalization will increase competition from
cheaper and cheaper imported food.
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National level management of the fish stock of
fisheries will lead to suboptimal decisions which
further hasten the decline in regional seafood
availability and over time, to the collapse of these
fisheries.
Thank you!
Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS)
Scenario Brief: Draft
Adapting Mosaic
Sharon Hutchinson
Natural Resource Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension
Faculty of Science and Agriculture
The University of the West Indies
23 November 2005