Turkey as an Energy Hub

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Transcript Turkey as an Energy Hub

Turkey’s Energy Policy (Week 13-14 )
Turkey’s Energy Profile
As a fast-growing country, energy consumption in
Turkey is on the rise. The Turkish electricity market is
one of the fastest growing in the world, with approx.
7% annual growth on average. Natural gas demand is
expected to increase as well. This growing demand
require new investments.
Energy Demand Projection
Import Dependecy
Coal Map
Turkey Wind Capacity and Utilisation
Turkey
Wind Power Capacity
Turkey
433
500
400
300
100
MW
147
200
19
0
2006
2007
2008
Turkey’s Wind Atlas
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• Geothermal : The possible geothermal
heating capacity is 31,500 MWt.(equal to5
million dwellings)
• 120 000 dwellings and 900.000 m2 green
house heated by geothermal,
• Proven geothermal electricity capacity is 550
MWe , 29 MW installed
Solar Energy Potential
Average annual solar radiation:1,311 kWh/m².
Average annual sunshine duration:2640 hours.
Technical potential :405 000 GWh, (DNI> 1800 kwh/m2-year).
Economic potential :131 000 GWh, (DNI> 2000 kwh/m2-year).
Solar energy is used especially as a thermal energy in Turkey.
•
400,000 Toe solar heating produced by 11 million m2 collectors, second in the
world.
•
annual production capacity is 1 million m².
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Total installed photovoltaics capacity is approximately 1000 kW and
But it is expected to increase PV usage next future.
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Solar
Turkey is geographically well located with
respect to solar energy potential.
The average 2640 hours annual sunshine,
solar intensity is 3.6 kWh /m²-day.
Solar energy utilization in domestic hot water,
collector capacity is approximately 18 million
m² and the corresponding annual energy
production is 420000 TOE ..
Photovoltaic power installed capacity 1000
kWp.
Energy Intensity
• Energy Intensity is a measure of the energy
“efficiency” of a nation's economy. High energy
intensities indicate a high price or cost of converting
energy into GDP. Low energy intensity indicates a
lower price or cost of converting energy into GDP.
• So lower is better. Higher means more carbon
emissions
• Turkey ( 0.38 consumption/GDP ) is over both
OECD(0.19 con/GDP) and World (0.38) averages.
The Strategic Plan of the Ministry of
Energy
• “Main target is to provide energy resources to all
consumers adequately, high in quality , low in cost,
secure and environmentally friendly ” and “reduce
the import dependence of our country in energy
supply”
• Reducing Turkey’s dependence on energy imports &
increasing the amount of energy products that
transport through Turkey.
Main priorities in Turkish energy policy:
-To meet the energy demand by means of indigenous resources
as much as possible;
-To diversify energy services, particularly encouraging
harnessing of renewables in electricity production, and in other
alternative areas;
-to increase efficiency in all segments of energy chain both in
supply side and demand side;
-To liberalize the energy sector to increase productivity and
efficiency, to create a
competitive energy market, and provide transparency
Rekabetçi/Serbest Enerji Piyasası
Goals of the Strategic Plan
1) Exploiting all domestic energy sources
including hydrocarbons, renewables and
building nuclear power plant.
2) Becoming a regional energy hub or energy
center
Turkey’s Renewable Energy Support
Mechanism (Law No.5346)
Power plants that have come into operation since 18 May 2005
or will come into operation before 31 December 2015 will be
eligible to receive feed-in tariffs for the first ten years of their
operation.
If the mechanical or electro-mechanical equipment of the power
plant is produced locally, a premium shall be added to the feedin tariffs during the first five years of operation.
Turkey goes Nuclear Energy
Turkey has decided to have electricity
generated from three nuclear power plants
by the year 2023 with the expectation that
approximately 20% of Turkey’s current
established power will be generated from
in-house
nuclear
power
plants
(ETKB,2012).
Turkey’s Pipeline Strategy
• Ensuring its energy security is the core of the Turkish
energy policy to sustain its growing economy.
• Efforts for the transportation of reserves located at
the immediate neighbourhood to Western markets
on the realization of the East-West Energy Corridor,
often referred to as the Silk Road of the 21st Century.
• The pipeline projects linking the Caucasus and Central
Asia to Europe will be essential for the region’s
integration with the West.
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Turkey and the Sides of Energy Bridge
• Demand Side
– The European Union
• Supply Side
–
–
–
–
The Caspian Basin
Russia
The Middle East
Eastern Med (?)
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Turkey as a Transit Corridor ?
• Variety
of
pipelines,
and
other
sorts
of
transportation. Not only for the Turkish market, but
also for Europe and other markets via the
Mediterranean.
Turkey as an Energy Hub ?
• A web of oil and gas pipelines as well as LNG
trade, not only in terms of its ability to influence
transit terms and conditions, but also in reexporting some of the hydrocarbons passing
through this system.
Turkey as an Energy Center ?
• Energy hub + massive energy investments.
• Sufficient energy intensity or efficiency & a
sustainable energy mix
• A favorable balance between int. agreements,
pipelines, domestic energy structure & energy mix.
• Conveying economic & strategic advantages,
bolstering Turkey’s regional influence.
Four phases of Turkey’s Energy Ambitions
1. Early phase with political-cultural concerns: 19911994.
2. East-West energy corridor originating from Caspian:
1994-2005.
3. East-West energy corridor originating from Eurasia
and the Middle East: 2005-2009.
4. East-West & North-South energy transit hub
originating from Russia, the Caspian Sea and the
Middle East: 2010 and onwards.
Turkey’s Pipeline Strategy
• Ensuring its energy security is the core of the Turkish
energy policy to sustain its growing economy.
• Efforts for the transportation of reserves located at
the immediate neighbourhood to Western markets
on the realization of the East-West Energy Corridor,
often referred to as the Silk Road of the 21st Century.
• The pipeline projects linking the Caucasus and Central
Asia to Europe will be essential for the region’s
integration with the West.
72
Turkey and the Sides of Energy Bridge
• Demand Side
– The European Union
• Supply Side
–
–
–
–
The Caspian Basin
Russia
The Middle East
Eastern Med (?)
74
Turkey as a Transit Corridor ?
• Variety
of
pipelines,
and
other
sorts
of
transportation. Not only for the Turkish market, but
also for Europe and other markets via the
Mediterranean.
Turkey as an Energy Hub ?
• A web of oil and gas pipelines as well as LNG
trade, not only in terms of its ability to influence
transit terms and conditions, but also in reexporting some of the hydrocarbons passing
through this system.
Turkey as an Energy Center ?
• Energy hub + massive energy investments.
• Sufficient energy intensity or efficiency & a
sustainable energy mix
• A favorable balance between int. agreements,
pipelines, domestic energy structure & energy mix.
• Conveying economic & strategic advantages,
bolstering Turkey’s regional influence.
Four phases of Turkey’s Energy Ambitions
1. Early phase with political-cultural concerns: 19911994.
2. East-West energy corridor originating from Caspian:
1994-2005.
3. East-West energy corridor originating from Eurasia
and the Middle East: 2005-2009.
4. East-West & North-South energy transit hub
originating from Russia, the Caspian Sea and the
Middle East: 2010 and onwards.
Early Phase (1991-1994)
Twofold effects of the disintegrations of the
USSR on Turkey’s energy policies :
1) A rapid increase in energy relations with
Russia, keen to sell more gas to Turkey
2) Position to politically fill the space left in
Central Asia by Soviet Russia.
East-West Energy Corridor from
Caspian Phase (1994-2005)
• A variety of oil and gas pipeline projects which
would bring Caspian hydrocarbons to Turkey
• Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan ( BTC)
• Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE)
• NABUCCO
E-W Energy Corridor from Eurasia & the
Middle East (2005-2009)
• Pipelines from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and
Iran, with possible extensions from Iraq &
Qatar.
• Difficulty of Nabucco
East-West & North-South energy transit
hub : 2010 and onwards.
• Concerns of global actors, regional dynamics & Turkey’s
increasing efforts to implement energy as a means of foreign
policy.
• Energy infrastructure investments , Ceyhan terimal & NG
storages
Ceyhan Energy Terminal
SWOT ANALYSIS OF
TURKEY’S ENERGY
STRATEGY
STRENGHTS
• Growing energy figure
• Location
• Stability
• Net energy importer
• Advanged engineering services
Weaknesses
• Take or pay agreements mainly due to
overestimated NG consumption projections
• Generating electrircity from NG
• Ineffcient energy usage / High Energy Intensity
• Disharmony among state institutions
• Balancing the triangle of Russia-Iran-the US
• Instability in Caucasus and Middle East
• Iranian nuclear impasse
• Critical Energy Infrastructure (in)security
Opportunies
• Idle renewable energy potential
• Speculative potential oil/NG reserves
• Pledge to become the 4th artery of Europe or
regional energy hub
• Prospects for stability in Caucasus and ME
Threats
• Political/economic risks associated with
over dependency on imported energy
resources
• Over reliance on Russian resources –
Resource nationalism
• Energy terror ( ISIL, PKK , al-Qaeda , etc.)
What should be Turkey’s energy
strategy to reach sustainable energy
future?
Thanks