Transcript 08.04.25 Churchill Free Fund

Update on the
Kentucky Economy
Churchill Tax Free Fund
Annual Shareholders Meeting
April 25, 2008
Nationally – It was quite a year
High gasoline prices
Subprime lending crisis/banking
Housing weakness
Slowdown in GDP
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To see what’s happened in
Kentucky’s economy
Let’s put it in a historical context
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Kentucky’s Economy
“A Quick History”
1980-1984
Major Recession
Heavy job loss
1984-2000
Strong job growth
Strong income growth
Employment/Income
growth greater than U.S.
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THEN
November 2000 – The light switch . . .
July 2003 – Job losses
 Manufacturing
 Telecommunications
 Utilities
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UPDATE
2004 – 2007 Decent growth-Not great
 Growth in business services
 Growth in health care
 Some defense related growth
 COAL
 Loss of manufacturing jobs
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KY Employment
is Growing Strongly
Nonfarm employment in thousands
March 2007:
1,858.8
1900
1850
March 2006:
1,839.7
March 2000:
1,831.6
1800
December 2007:
1,857.3
1750
July 2003:
1,775.3
January 2007:
1,854.3
1700
1650
1600
1550
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Ja
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-9
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-9
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-9
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-9
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-9
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-9
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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Manufacturing Employment
in KY Continues to be a Concern
320
in thousands
310
300
290
280
270
January 2006:
261.8
December 2007:
252.7
260
250
240
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
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Update 2007
 Employment Gain +3,000 jobs (+0.2%)
Manufacturing -8,200 jobs (-3.1%)
 So, we continue in trading jobs
 Manufacturing (high wage)
For
 Services (some high, some low)
 Healthcare
 Business
 Retail
 Income growth, but less than National average
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And We Will Try One More Time
to Guess the Future
Kentucky Outlook
 Continued modest employment growth (Less than 1.0%)
 OK income growth (Around 5%)
 Below U.S.
 Housing slow
 Energy concerns
 Continued state budget issues
 Expenditure side of budget
 Pension Liability
 Other
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More of the Same
OK – Not Great
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