Transcript High Food Prices in West Africa

Challenges of the food, fertilizer and
fuel price crisis in West and Central
Africa
Interagency Meeting
7 October 2008
Dakar
High Food Prices in West Africa
• In West-Africa recent sharp increases in
food, fertilizer and fuel prices pose a
serious threat to an already fragile
situation in terms of food and nutrition
security.
• Social implications of rising food prices
have resulted in riots and demonstrations
in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire,
Mauritania, Senegal and Niger.
Macroeconomic impact
• Budgetary impact of increased food and fuel
subsidies, tax exemptions, etc (for 2008, IMF):
–
–
–
–
Benin: 1.5% of GDP
Burkina Faso: 1.3% of GDP
Guinea-Bissau: 10% of tax revenue
Mali: 1.8% of GDP
• Reduction in growth, due to higher fuel prices
and fiscal adjustment → increase in
unemployment and underemployment?
• Risk of reduction in public expenditure on
basic social services
Deterioration in balance of payments due
to increased food and fuel prices
% of 2007 GDP (IMF projections, June 2008)
DRC
1.5
S. Tom e & Principe
2.2
Benin
2.2
CAR
2.4
Burkina Faso
2.5
Guinea
4.2
Sierra Leone
4.4
Ghana
4.9
Gam bia
5.1
Senegal
5.5
Togo
5.5
8.8
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
15.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
What is the impact on households?
•
•
•
•
•
Impact on monetary poverty
Impact on household expenditure: substitution effects
Nutritional impacts
Agriculture impact
Possible impacts on education, use of health services
and child labour
Impact on monetary poverty
Ex-ante simulation of the impact of rice prices on the poverty
headcount in Liberia – World Bank, 2007. Based on CWIQ
data
Impact on household expenditure: substitution effects
Liberia Greater Monrovia (Source: Liberia Joint Survey on the Impact of high prices)
Burkina Faso. In Ouaga and Bobo , for the very poor:
•
Reduction in protein consumption
•
Increased buying of street food as opposed to buying .
•
Substitution towards ‘filling’ foods.
Impacts on education and
health
Liberia
In Burkina (Ouaga and Bobo) increase in drop out rates
due to ‘manque de moyens’, drop in attendance.
Nutritional impacts
Global Acute Malnutrition
Severe Acute Malnutrition
14
12
13,3
12,6
12
10
8
8,2
6
4
3,3
1,7
2
1,8
0,8
0
EDS 2001 (hunger
season)
UNICEF 2006
(post harvest)
MICS 2007
(hunger season)
MS-UNICEF 2008
(post harvest)
Prevalence of Acute Malnutrition in children 6-59m in Mauritania
Challenges and Opportunities
• Strengthening the evidence base
– Data
– Analysis
• Bridging current emergency activities with longterm development programmes.
– Strengthening the agriculture supply response
– Strengthening the social protection system
• Improving coordination between:
– Governments
– Regional Economic Communities
– International Agencies.