Transcript presentation made by Hans Martens

Applications for Membership of the EU
Turkey - April 1987
Cyprus - July 1990
Malta - July 1990
Hungary - March 1994
Poland - April 1994
Romania - June 1995
Slovakia - June 1995
Latvia - October 1995
Estonia - November 1995
Lithuania - December 1995
Bulgaria - December 1995
Czech Rep. - January 1996
Slovenia - June 1996
Croatia – February 2003
Macedonia – Spring 2004
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Population from May 2004
450 million
400
300
272 million
200
126 million
100
0
EU
USA
Japan
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Increase in area
18%
82%
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Population change
17%
83%
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
GDP change
ACC
6%
EU
94%
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We have practiced membership for a
decade already:
Bilateral European Agreements between the EU and
applicants have created convergence with the EU in
economic, political and social areas.
Has covered a wide range of issues such as: trade,
political dialogue, legal approximation and other
areas of cooperation, including industry,
environment, transport and customs.
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Important effects of Enlargement
•A more peaceful Europe
•A Europe of nearly half a billion inhabitants
•Addition of rapidly growing economies, boosting
economic growth and job creation
•Better quality of life for citizens through the
protection of the environment, and the fight against
crime, drugs and immigration.
•Wider cultural diversity
•Stronger role for the EU in world affairs
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Any progress yet?
• Stable democracies have emerged in a record
period
• Economic reforms have proven successful, leading
to high rates of economic growth
• EUs financial assistance and the prospect of EU
membership have stimulated development
• Trade and investment has developed well
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GDP per Capita – 2003
Index. EU-15 = 100. PPS
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Lux
Ire
Den Aus
UK
Net
Bel Swe
Fra
Fin
Ger
Ita
Spa
Por Gre
US: 139; Japan: 102
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
GDP per Capita – 2003
Index. EU-15 = 100. PPS
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Tur
Bul
Rom
Lat
Est
Lit
Pol
Slova
Hun
CR
Por
Slove
Gre
Spa
Ita
Ger
Fin
Fra
Swe
Bel
UK
Net
Aus
Den
Ire
Lux
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Growth Rate of GDP – 2003
%
Percentage change on previous year
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
US: 2; Japan: 0,3
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Slove
-2
CR
Hun
Pol
Slova
Est
Bul
Rom
Tur
Lat
Lit
Net
Por
Ger
Fra
Ita
Den
Bel
Aus
Lux
Swe
Fin
Ire
UK
Spa
Gre
-1
Annual Growth in GDP
%
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
2000
2001
EU
2002
2003
2004
ACC
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Total Unemployment Rate -2003
USA: 6,0
Japan: 5,3
%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Li
t
Bu
l
Sl
ov
Po
l
Fi
n
Tu
r
G
re
G
er
Fr
a
Es
t
La
t
Sp
a
It
a
R
M
al
Be
l
C
e
un
Po
r
Sl
on
R
om
H
Sw
K
en
D
U
Ir
e
Lu
x
N
et
A
us
C
yp
0
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Employment by sector 2001
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Agriculture
Industry and construction
Services
EU ACC
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Sector effects
•Risk sectors are characterised by high labour intensity.
Accession countries have favourable wage/productivity ratio
•The labour force in the accession countries is well educated
so some more ‘skill-intensive’ sectors might come under
pressure in the EU as well
•In the service sectors, advantages for the EU are mainly in
the fields of business and financial services, whereas among
the accession countries’ exports, tourism and transportation
services are dominant
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Labour productivity
GDP in PPS per person employed relative to EU-15 = 100. 2003
140
US: 120,7
Japan: 89,4
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bul
Rom
Tur
Lat
Lit
Est
Pol
CR
Slov
Por
Hun
Slon
Cyp
Mal
Gre
Ger
Spa
Swe
UK
Net
Aus
Den
Fin
Ita
Fra
Bel
Ire
Lux
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Earnings
Average gross annual earnings in industry and services, EUR, 2001
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Slov
Hun
Pol
Mal
Por
Gre
Cyp
Spa
Fra
Fin
Swe
Bel
Net
Lux
Ger
UK
Den
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Wage/Productivity
New Member States roughly delivers half the
productivity for a quarter of the price
Threat or opportunity?
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The knowledge economy:
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
% of GDP - 2000
%
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
e
Sw
r
n
n
F i G e De
Fr
a
l
Be
s et
Au N
x
UK Lu Slo n
CR
e
Ir
Ita
H
r
un Spa Po
t
t
Es Li
l
e
Po G r
r
l
v
Tu Slo Bu
t
p
La Rom Cy
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
The knowledge economy:
%
Internet penetration in EU households - 2003
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
at
L
it
L
Po
r
G
re
Po
l
E
st
Sl
on
C
yp
C
R
It
a
Fi
n
L
ux
G
er
B
el
A
us
Ir
e
Fr
a
Sp
a
Sw
e
U
K
en
D
N
et
0
The knowledge economy:
%
Internet penetration in enterprises 2003
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Lat
Fra
Gre
Por
Pol
Lux
UK
Ita
Spa
Ger
Net
Ire
Slon
Aus
Bel
Den
Swe
Fin
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
The knowledge economy:
Patent applications to European Patent Office
Per 1 million inhabitants - 2001
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Pol
CR
Hun
Slovn
Gre
Por
Spa
Ita
Ire
UK
Fra
Bel
Aus
Den
Net
Ger
Fin
Swe
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Energy intensity of the economy- 2001
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
USA
Fin
Gre
Por
Bel
Spa
UK
Swe
Net
Lux
Fra
Ita
Ger
Ire
Aus
Den
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Energy intensity of the economy- 2001
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Bul
Est
Lit
Rom
Slov
CR
Lat
Pol
Hun
Tur
Slon
Cyp
Mal
Fin
Gre
Por
Bel
Spa
UK
Swe
Net
Lux
Fra
Ita
Ger
Ire
Aus
Den
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Business effects – Four drivers
•Strong boost to foreign direct investment due to higher
confidence in a predictable political and regulatory
framework.
•Raising training and skills standards, as well as productivity
improvements, technology transfers, modernised plant and
equipment, and better environment and social standards.
•Higher levels of international competitiveness in both the
new and the old Member States.
•Increased cross-border trade between the new and the old
Member States.
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Regional effects
•Countries with no borders with the new Member
States will be affected less by the increase of
competition from the accession countries
•The impact on countries with borders to the new
members will be much higher: They will benefit
more from the demand in the accession countries
but also fell increase in competition
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Impact on SMEs
In many sectors the impact will be restricted to regions close to
the new EU members.
Micro and small enterprises tend to serve local needs and
impact will be more moderate.
Medium-sized companies are often hampered in their
international activities by transaction costs, which will be
reduced because of enlargement
Medium sized companies will have new partnership and market
opportunities in the enlarged market. Requires an effort!
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The business environment
Level of cooruption: Transparency Internnational 2003
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pol
Slova
Lat
CR
Gre
Lit
Hun
Ita
Est
Slove
Por
Spa
Fra
Ire
Bel
Ger
Aus
Lux
UK
Net
Swe
Den
Fin
EPC EDUCATION AND TRAINING – www.epctraining.be
Investment, enlargement and SMEs
•Enlargement will mean a reduction of transaction costs due
to Internal Market.
•Therefore, enlargement could improve the position of SMEs
in terms of trade and investment, but the question remains as
to whether and which SMEs will invest.
•Partnership opportunities should be considered.
Enlargement: Threat or opportunity for SMEs?
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