Transcript Towards a Scottish Balance of Payments

Towards a Scottish Balance of
Payments
Sandy Stewart
OCEA
Problems
• Trade flows – modelled in Input-Output
analysis – calendar year
• Fiscal flows – GERS analysis – financial
year
• Poor quality trade data – especially
Imports/ HMRC regional estimates
• Little information available about flows to
and from the North Sea
Scotland - Input-Output 2007
• Industry x Industry – basic prices - £billion
– Exports to rest of UK
– Exports to rest of world
– Imports from rest of UK
– Imports from rest of world
– Net trade
-
£ 34.2 bn
£ 19.0 bn
£ 44.2 bn
£ 21.5 bn
£ 12.5 bn
Scotland - SNAP 2008-09
experimental
• GDP(E) – market prices - £billion
– Exports to rest of UK
– Exports to rest of world
– Imports from rest of UK
– Imports from rest of world
– Net trade
-
£ 33.7 bn
£ 20.4 bn
£ 45.8 bn
£ 18.4 bn
£ 10.1 bn
North Sea analysis
SCDI – Survey of International Activity in the Oil and Gas Sector 2008-09.
Scottish Service/Supply Sales to the UK Domestic Market
(UKCS) – 2008 - £ billion
– Production/Equip/Materials
– Bulk Materials
– Services
– Eng/Proc/Const/Install
– Total
£0.8 bn
£0.7 bn
£6.3 bn
£1.1 bn
£8.8 bn
Regional Accounts – Extra Regio
2008 - £billion
Public Admin and Defence
– Compensation of employees
North Sea
– Compensation of employees
– Gross operating surplus
Total GVA
SNAP – 2008/09 – pop/geog - GDP
£ 1.6 bn
£ 1.5 bn
£35.3 bn
£38.5 bn
£30.5 bn
GERS – Scottish Public Sector
Finances – 2008/09
Onshore revenues
Offshore revenues
Total revenues
£ 43.5 bn
£ 11.8 bn
£ 55.2 bn
- TME
£ 59.0 bn
Net Fiscal Balance
Net Fiscal Balance
(excl NS)
(geog NS)
-£ 15.5 bn
-£ 3.8 bn
Net outflow of private finance –
Scotland 2008/09 - £ billion
Trade deficit excluding NS
Trade deficit for NS
Net fiscal balance excl NS
North Sea revenues
Net outflow of private finance
-£ 10.1 bn
+£ 30.5 bn
-£ 15.5 bn
+£ 11.8 bn
+£ 16.7 bn
Future work
•
•
•
•
Need better understanding of NS activity
Need North Sea satellite account
Need to adjust onshore analysis/SCDI ?
Need to set this in BoP framework
– Challenge “balanced book” approach
– Investigate other components (CoE in GDHI
etc)
– Consider apportionment methodologies
• Help required!