Transcript - IEEE Bombay Section

India Visit
April 2006
Moving IEEE into the Next
Decade
Michael Lightner
2006 IEEE President and CEO
THANK YOU !
2
IEEE Vision
Advance global prosperity by…

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
Fostering technological innovation
Enabling members careers
Promoting community
…worldwide
3
IEEE Core Focus
I like to capture our activities from an individual
perspective as:

Enable technical professionals to distinguish
themselves in a globally competitive environment
The ‘flip-side’ of this is our role as members of
countries and regions’

IEEE members enabling their regions/countries to
distinguish themselves in a globally competitive
environment?
4
Population Explodes

Millions
10.0
World population
continues to grow: from
2.6 billion in 1950, to 6.2
in 2002 and 9.1 billion in
2050
9.0
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0

Less developed
countries (LDCs) will
drive population growth
for the next five decades.
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base
5
Other Population Challenges
Two Demographic Extremes:



Nearly 50% of the world’s population could be less
than 18 years old by 2020.
In 2004, 20 percent of the people residing in Italy were
over age 65; by 2020, China, Australia, Russia,
Canada, and the United States will face a similar
situation
These two together mean that in some countries 30%
of the population could be supporting the other 70%
6
Population for Selected Countries
Billions
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2010
2025
2050
2.0
In 2002, China is the most populous country in the world and
India, the second most populous. India gains population
rapidly and eclipses China in total population in 2037.
Half of the world’s more developed countries (MDCs),
including those in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet
Union, are expected to experience population declines over
the next 50 years. The United States is the only MDC expected
to be among the ten most populous countries in 2050.
1.5
MDCs will experience aging populations, while LDCs will have
a “youth bulge.” Nearly 50% of the world’s population could
be less than 18 years old by 2020.
1.0
0.5
0.0
Median age
(2002-03)
China
Japan
India
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United
Kingdom
United
States
32
42
24
39
42
41
39
39
36
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base
7
Generational Differences
The Younger Generation…

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Perceptions of trustworthy may differ from elders'
Has replaced newspapers and TV weather reports with the Internet
The Internet has shaped the way they work, relax and even date. It's created a
different notion of community and new avenues for expression.
More likely to go on-line to pay bills, register for classes, book travel, check TV
listings, buy movie tickets and get directions.
"My parents, before they go on road trips, get a booklet with travel directions that are
printed and mailed to them. Can you imagine? Mailing away for travel directions?"


Accustomed to near-instantaneous keeping in touch — primarily via instant
messaging, cell phones and e-mail.
However, far from digging a social black hole, they are using high-tech means
to maintain or expand their network of relationships, to hang out with friends, to
relieve boredom and even flirt.
8
Challenges (& Opportunities)
In A Networked World
Increased intensity and rate of change in workplace


Steady pressure on the individual
Struggles balancing work and personal lives
Integration of cell phones, video, and Internet



Prices fall, and globalization accelerates.
Technology professionals want tools to help quickly form and
disband, coordinate actions, and share information.
Self-organizing mechanisms are emerging and building a
collective, on-line body of information and intelligence.
Information sharing is tying cultures, knowledge and
economies together
9
Workforce Trends
Nine shifts are projected in work patterns over the next
two decades:

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People Work at Home
Intranets Replace Offices
Networks Replace the Pyramid
Simultaneous work and travel
Communities Become Dense
New Societal Infrastructures Evolve
Shared Work and Responsibility
Half of all Learning is Online
Education Becomes Web-based
10
Worldwide Workforce Shifts Will Continue
The global talent pool of scientists and engineers is increasing rapidly.
Business, industry and academia will continue to access this talent pool over
the next decade.
11
Workplace Trends





Jobs will require flexibility, creativity, lifelong learning, and
interaction with others
Global marketplace demands around the clock access
The half-life of an engineer’s knowledge is estimated to be less than
five years
In 10 years 90% of what an engineer knows will be available on the
computer
60% of future jobs will require training that only 20% of the current
U.S. work force possesses
[Workforce 2020 : Work and Workers in the 21st Century]
12
Workplace Trends: Specialization & Globalization
Specialization



the size of the body of knowledge required to excel in a particular area
precludes excellence across all disciplines.
Organizations will depend on teams of task-focused, project-specific
specialists - distributed cognition
Use of independent specialists, consultants and contractors will increase.
Globalization




Globalization is shifting the source of competitive pressure and competitive
advantage
from excellence at the point of production — now more or less assumed
toward excellence in governing spatially dispersed networks of plants,
affiliates and suppliers.
Top jobs will go to people who manage the large, complex adaptive systems
for business.
13
A closer look at
Region 10
14
2005 World Competitiveness
#1 - US
#2 - Hong Kong
#3 - Singapore
#4 - Iceland
#5 - Canada
100.0
93.1
89.7
Metrics
85.3
82.6
82.0
78.3
75.5
#9 - Australia
#11 - Taiwan
#18 - New Zealand
#21 - Japan
•Economic
performance
•Government
efficiency
•Business
efficiency
68.7
66.0
65.8
64.2
63.2
#27 - Thailand
#28 - Malaysia
#29 - Korea
#31 - China
#39 - India
•Infrastructure
59.1
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook
15
85
90
95
100
Indicators Of Technological Competitiveness
The Gap Is Narrowing

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
Japan
China
Singapore
Australia
South Korea
Taiwan
New Zealand
Malaysia
India
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
295
271
267
265
259
254
240
228
217
189
179
150
Source: Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
16
Metrics:
•National
orientation
•Socioeconomic
infrastructure
•Technological
infrastructure
•Productive
capacity
Innovator Index: 2004
Japan
US
S. Korea
Germany
China
Russia
France
UK
Taiwan
Italy
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Sweden
Spain
Netherlands
Finland
Austria
0
50
100
150
200
250
Patent Applications in Thousands
Source: Thomson Scientific
17
300
350
China

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Population: 1,306,313,812 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…21.4%
15-64yrs…71%
65yrs+ …7.6%
Growth rate:
.58%
Languages: Standard Chinese of Mandarin, Yue (Cantonese),
We (Shanghaiese), Other
Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 90.9%
GDP (purchasing power parity): $8.158 trillion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 9.2% (2005)
Labor force: 791.4 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 4.2% (2004)
Telephones – main lines in use: 263 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 269 million (2003)
Internet users – 111 million (2004)
18
China

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4th largest economy in the world.
Oil demand could account for 32% of
global power equipment orders between
2003 and 2008.
Integrated circuits, mobile phones and
computers are the driving forces behind
China’s export volume.
Foreign direct investment grew 36%
annually from 2002 to 2005.
2,003 higher ed institutes, 3.2 mill higher
ed students, and 110K foreign students
studying in China in 2004
111 million Internet users, making it the
world's 2nd largest Internet country.
19
Source: Business Week, Mar 2004
China Issues & Priorities
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Pursuing SARS vaccine – completed clinical study
Clean energy sources to improve pollution
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Wind turbines
Solar-power terrestrial heat pumps
Photovoltaic cells
Chunhui cars powered by lithium & hydrogen – water vapor is
only emission
Computing independence with homegrown “Godson”
computer chip
Labor supply paradox



Huge supply of low-cost workers
Few graduates have necessary skills for service occupation
20% unemployment of engineering workforce - unofficial
20
Japan

Population: 127,417,244 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…14.3%
15-64yrs…66.2%
65yrs+ …19.5%
Growth rate:
.05%

Languages: Japanese

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 99%



GDP (purchasing power parity): $3.867 trillion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 2.1% (2005)
Labor force: 66.4 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 4.3% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 71 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 86.7 million (2003)
Internet users – 57.2 million (2003)
21
India

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Population: 1,080,264,388 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…31.2%
15-64yrs…63.9%
65yrs+ …4.9%
Growth rate:
1.4%
Languages: Hindi (30%), English (national, political, commercial),
14 other official languages
Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 59.5%
GDP (purchasing power parity): $3.678 trillion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 7.1% (2005)
Labor force: 496.4 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 9% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 49 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 26 million (2003)
Internet users – 18.5 million (2003)
22
India

Large pool of well-educated
people skilled in the English
language.
Output of trained engineering and
IT professionals growing.
23
Engineers
IT professionals
2004
Known for software development
and growth in knowledge-based
industries.
2002
A rising proportion of its
population of ‘working age’ (15-59
years).
2000

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1998

World’s 2nd largest talent pool for
engineers
(In thousands)
1996

Output of Degree Level Engineering
and IT Professionals in India
1994

Largest concentration of IEEE
members outside the US.
1992

Source: National Association of Software and Service Companies
South Korea

Population: 48,422,644 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…19.4%
15-64yrs…72%
65yrs+ …8.6%
Growth rate:
.38%

Languages: Korean, English

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 67.7%



GDP (purchasing power parity): $983.3 billion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 3.7% (2005)
Labor force: 23.65 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 3.7% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 23 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 33.5 million (2003)
Internet users – 29 million (2003)
24
Australia

Population: 20,090, 437 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…19.8%
15-64yrs…67.2%
65yrs+ 12.9%
Growth rate:
.87%

Languages: English (79.1%), Chinese, Italian, Other

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 100%

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
GDP (purchasing power parity): $642.7 billion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 2.7% (2005)
Labor force: 10.42 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 5.2% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 11 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 14 million (2003)
Internet users – 9.5 million (2002)
25
Australia Labor Challenges

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Labor Market Shift - Baby-boom generation
reaches retirement age
If labor force slows, GDP could follow
Growing labor demand = stronger incentives to
learn new skills and enter new areas
Must ensure mature-age employees can
acquire updated skills
Economic challenge to enable lifelong learning
26
Thailand

Population: 65,444,371 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…23.9%
15-64yrs…68.6%
65yrs+ …7.5%
Growth rate:
.87%

Languages: Thai, English, ethnic and regional dialects

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 94.9%
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GDP (purchasing power parity): $545.8 billion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 4.6% (2005)
Labor force: 35.36 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 1.4% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 6.6 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 26.5 million (2003)
Internet users – 6.9 million (2003)
27
Malaysia

Population: 23,953,136 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…33%
15-64yrs…62.4%
65yrs+ …4.6%
Growth rate:
1.8%

Languages: Bahasa Melayu (official), English, Chinese, Other

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 88.7%

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
GDP (purchasing power parity): $248 billion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 5.1% (2005)
Labor force: 10.67 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 3.6% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 4.5 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 11 million (2003)
Internet users – 8.7 million (2003)
28
New Zealand

Population: 4,035,461 (July 2005 est.)
Age Structure: 0-14yrs…21.4%
15-64yrs…66.9%
65yrs+ …11.7%
Growth rate:
1.02%

Languages: English (official), Maori (official)

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 99%

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
GDP (purchasing power parity): $97.39 billion (2005)
GDP – real growth rate: 2.5% (2005)
Labor force: 2.139 million (2005)
Unemployment rate: 4% (2005)
Telephones – main lines in use: 1.8 million (2003)
Telephones – mobile cellular: 2.6 million (2003)
Internet users – 2 million (2003)
29
New Zealand

Moved up two places in 2005 World
Competitiveness rating

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

Subsidy free economy / no price controls
(environmental law prevents a higher ranking)
Good corporate citizenship and image
abroad
Shortage of skilled labor/outflow of welleducated and skilled people
30
IEEE Membership
R7
15,380
R1- 6
218,260
R10
62,533
R1 – 39,191
R2 – 33,617
R3 – 30,576
R4 – 24,325
R5 – 29,681
R9
14,269
R8
56,953
R6 – 60,870
*Region 10 remains
largest IEEE Region
TOTAL MEMBERSHIP – 367,395
31 December 2005
31
IEEE Top 10 Membership Countries
2005
Rank
2005
Membership
Country
1
UNITED STATES
2
% of All
IEEE Mbrs
219,125
59.6%
INDIA
22,134
6.0%
3
CANADA
15517
4.2%
4
JAPAN
12,702
3.5%
5
UNITED KINGDOM
8,459
2.3%
6
CHINA (incl. HONG
KONG & MACAU)
6,351
1.7%
7
AUSTRALIA
6,069
1.7%
8
GERMANY
5,941
1.6%
9
KOREA
4,072
1.1%
10
MEXICO
3,999
1.1%
5 of top 10 countries are in Region 10
32
Historical Region 10 Membership
1997 - 2005
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
33
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
IEEE Region 10 Membership
Sep 2003 - Sep 2005
70,000
60,000
58,632
54,844
58,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
42,309
39,674
39,804
20,000
10,000
15,170
16,323
18,196
2003
2004
2005
0
Higher Grade
34
Students
Total
50000
Nov 2004
0
Nov 2005
19
50
20000
174
30000
36
40000
40
38
437
00
60000
3
611
70000
59
88
36
80000
3
IEEE Region 10 Membership
Nov 2004 to Nov 2005
10000
0
Students
Higher Grade
35
Total
IEEE Region 10
November 2005






40,383 Higher Grade members
19,500 Student members
47 Sections
288 Chapters
439 Student Branches
44 Student Branch Society Chapters
36
Challenges & Opportunities
37
Challenges of Transnationalism


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
Understanding local laws and responding
consistently
Adhering to core values and mission
Sensitivity to national needs and interests
affecting our members
Promoting community and communication
nationally and globally
Creating a toolbox of products and services
appropriate for each member area
38
Challenges Ahead

IEEE has been studying changes in
global workplace



Global growth of invention
Technology business - China and India
How engineers work

Changes in work patterns


Anywhere, anytime, always on
Multiple languages, multiple time zones
39
Challenges






IEEE should anticipate the changes coming from many
countries that can reshape its markets and agendas.
IEEE must globalize its thinking to anticipate new
membership needs
IEEE products and services need new approaches in
partnership with national associations and consultants in
the relevant countries
IEEE members will need new “adaptational” skills to
help deal with the complexity
IEEE should anticipate more professionals having
longer careers and working into their 70s, 80s, and 90s
It is essential for IEEE to listen to young professionals
and potential members. Think about what IEEE has to
offer them.
40
The Strategic Landscape - Summary


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


Population — Aging population in developed countries, increase in the
population of lesser developed countries and increased mobility of populations
Acceleration of urbanization — with higher consumption of electrical energy
and higher demand for security devices and services, increased need for
“cleaner” technologies
Personal life style changes —Next generation of users is digital savvy,
comfortable with peer-to-peer networking and expects services to be
personalized
Workplace changes — Globalization drives competitiveness concerns,
changing work environment of engineers due to global projects and networked
teams, decreased permanence, increased work by contract and by project
Technological change — Continuing acceleration of technology, accelerated
innovation and related time-to-market shrinking
More competition for IEEE — Increased competition for members, greater
competition in publications, conferences, standards, on-line activities, and so
on.
41
The Strategic Landscape - Summary


Engineering profession — fewer young people selecting
engineering as a career path, need to improve the public
perception of engineering and engineers
Education — Emergence of new technologies necessitate
frequent re-definition and calibration of school curricula,
opportunity to strengthen leadership in IEEE’s fields of interest
through model curricula, emergence of large engineering
education systems in growing economies with no accreditation
mechanisms
42
IEEE Focus on the Future:
12 Strategic Objectives






Develop alternative membership models that are affordable and
attractive.
Position IEEE as a leader in Standards in the global marketplace
and a trusted source for assessing the conformity of product and
applications to appropriate IEEE standards.
Establish IEEE as a leading provider of continuing education
and professional development.
Continue to provide trusted technical information products and
services.
Position IEEE as a highly visible force in, model curricula
development, professional credentialing of individuals and
global university-level accreditation.
Evolve an IEEE-wide strategy in fast-developing regions of the
world with an initial focus on China.
43
IEEE Focus on the Future:
12 Strategic Objectives






Promote public awareness, understanding and
appreciation of engineering and technology.
Improve IEEE’s volunteer and staff organization and
its governance processes.
Broaden the technologies and communities we serve.
Foster technological innovation, embrace emerging
technologies, and build new technical communities.
Diversify IEEE’s revenue-generating portfolio.
Maximize IEEE membership while maintaining the
prestige of IEEE membership, the reputation of IEEE
and the economic viability of the IEEE.
44
How IEEE Is Addressing
Its Global Needs



IEEE is striving to build on its global nature to
enhance members’ success in the global
profession.
Place more emphasis on the skills engineers
need to succeed in the 21st Century
Addressing global needs locally



Meet local needs in education, accreditation,
professional development, information, and
technology development and policy
Must have globalization and localization
But still must make economic sense
45
How IEEE Is Addressing
Its Global Needs






Providing more resources online
 IEL digital library – 1.3 million
documents
IEEE Member Digital Library

Subscribers can download, save
and print 25 articles/mo.
IEEE Enterprise for smaller
businesses
Google and Yahoo searches of IEEE
Xplore
CrossRef links to other journals
Online tools make it easier and faster
to submit, review and publish papers
with IEEE
46
How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs

Asia-Pacific Initiative -phase 1

Establishing a liaison office in the Peoples’
Republic of China




Legal presence to support Region/Section activities,
conferences, use of IEEE Intellectual property,
standards efforts
Build corporate standards memberships and an
appreciation and participation of voluntary global
standards
Support IEEE Computer Society Certification
program
Professional Certification

IEEE Computer Society software development
professional certification


Exam offered at hundreds of sites in over 74
countries
Measures an individual's mastery of the fundamental
knowledge required to perform the functions of an
experienced software engineer across the globe
47
How IEEE Is Addressing
Its Global Needs

Addressing global accreditation issues







Most IEEE accreditation activities are in U.S. with ABET
IEEE also serves in advisory capacity on accreditation in such
countries as Peru, Egypt
Plans underway for IEEE to expand activity out of U.S.
Establishing formal role in assisting accrediting bodies
worldwide
Expect to work to develop model curricula
Explore opportunity to serve as accrediting body
Establishing corporate partnerships to serve industry
around the world



20-member Library Advisory Council
80 corporate members of IEEE Standards Association
Memoranda of understanding with major corps in U.S. and
Europe
48
How IEEE Is Addressing
Its Global Needs
Continuing Education
Expert Now IEEE

50 one- and two-hour
interactive online courses
based on IEEE’s best
conference tutorials


Subscriptions for corporations
Available individually to members
later in 2006
IEEE Education Partners

6000 online courses from
university and corporate
institutions at a discount
49
Online Communities
Enable Global Collaborations



Over 100 in operation with
20,000+ users
Topics include Power &
Energy, Embedded
System, Product Safety,
Ethernet P Optical
Networks, Employment &
Career Strategies, and
more
IEEE governance-SPC;Section/Chapter
volunteers
Global Section/Chapter Community enhances local progress.
50
How IEEE Is Addressing
Its Global Needs
Seeding the pipeline of talent to enter
engineering and technology fields

Expanding pre-university programs to
link engineers and educators and
promote technical literacy




Teacher Inservice: Over 600 teachers
have been trained impacting over 70,000
students
Goal is to reach 2000 more in U.S.,
Malaysia, Spain, Australia, South Africa
in 2006
PEERS Website provides teacher
resources
Fostering global collaborations
between education and engineering
deans (Deans Summit, 2007)
51
New Roles of IEEE for growth



Helping countries maintain their
technological edge
Helping developing countries catch up
Leveling the playing field


Accreditation
Credentialing
52
IEEE Accreditation Initiatives







Model accreditation criteria in IEEE fields
Peer institution review
Accreditation services to accrediting bodies
Curriculum direction
Engineering education pedagogy
IEEE global workshop on accreditation
Comprehensive accreditation portal with reliable and
updated information
53
How Do We Function As A
Transnational Organization
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Member duality – belonging to global technical
community and holding national citizenship.
Acting globally to promote community and
communication
IEEE Sections and Regional Councils
Cooperative agreements with national societies and
industry associations – working WITH, not against our
societies
Our typical description of the IEEE must change consider the following slides
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IEEE looks and often talks like
MEMBERS
Board of Directors
Assembly
PSPB
IEEE-USA
Educational Act.
Standards Assoc.
Regional Act.
Technical Act.
Executive Comm.
Regions &
Sections
Societies &
Tech. Councils
Staff & Society
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Executive Directors
What really happens in the IEEE
Universities
Students
National/
Sister
Societies
Certification,
Accreditation,
Platform sharing,
??
Individuals
Competency
Test
Corporations
employees
Learning
modules
Linking to
other IP
Current
Readings
Body of
Knowledge
Articles,
Stds,
Product info,
etc.
Standards
Creation Process
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Academics
Sample
Curriculum
Lesson
Plans
Kids
Teachers
General
Public
articles
Technical Article
Creation Process
Graduates
Your help is needed



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Gaining consensus
Understanding priorities
Making decisions on strategic investments
Moving forward with implementation
I ask for your help and look forward to
working with you on this critical task for
defining the IEEE of the next decade
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IEEE Must Focus On…
Enabling technical professionals to
distinguish themselves in a globally
competitive environment…
And aggressively deliver value-added
products and services to support this
strategic focus.
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